Tornado Warning 6, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
805 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west, resulting in
thunderstorm chances through tonight. High pressure and cooler
conditions on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...

Strong to severe thunderstorms have now arrived along the
western flank of the forecast area. Tweaked sky conditions and
POPs to reflect current conditions along the line of convection,
and will be keeping a close eye on it over the next few hours
for future adjustments.

As of 225 PM Wednesday...

Convection has already begun to develop along the mountains this
afternoon where enough lift is being generated within a moisture
rich and unstable environment. As the afternoon progresses,
convection is expected to spread further west into the CWA as
this area receives greater forcing within the pre-frontal
environment of an approaching cold front. During this time, any
thunderstorms that develop have the potential to become strong
or severe.

This evening into tonight, a line of convection should sweep
through the CWA from west to east. This line will likely
coincide with the cold front passage. While wind should be the
primary threat, isolated hail and the possibility of a tornado
can't be ruled out.

Excluding the mountains, heat index values are expected to once
again reach upper 90s with isolated instances of 100 possible.
Currently have an SPS out for the afternoon, as temperatures
will likely fall short of Heat Advisory criteria.

Temperatures should fall into the 60s overnight (50s for the
mountains) following the cold front passage. Thursday's highs
are forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s (60s to 70s in the
higher elevations).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 236 PM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure should be in control of the weather across our
region through the period.  An upper level trof will dig southeast
with several models indicating an upper low will develop to our
north.

As a result, expect any convection should be limited to our northern
counties during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday.

Guidance suggests there will be a cooling trend with temperatures
across the lowlands generally in the lower 80s on Friday with
readings on Saturday in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 236 PM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure should remain in control of the weather across
our region through the period.  The long range models indicate we
will remain under the influence of an upper trough or possibly an
upper closed low.

Expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms will prevail each
afternoon and evening.

Daytime temperatures should slowly rise each day with readings on
Tuesday near normal and slightly above normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...

Line of convection associated with a cold front is now in the
vicinity of our western terminals at the time of writing. This
line upstream of the region has been capable of producing quick
reductions to IFR vsbys and wind gusts on the upwards of 40 kts
or greater. Elected to include TEMPO groups for HTS, PKB, and
CRW by best estimation of time of arrival for the next several
hours, noting both the increased winds and lowered vsbys. As the
line continues its eastward progression, the lack of diurnal
heating should taper down the threat for strong to severe
storms. This downward trend will reach our eastern airspace
closer to midnight, so maintained a SHRA VCTS combination in the
TAFs with potential need for amendments if vsbys look to be
degraded.

Showers and storms conclude Thursday morning with high pressure
building in its wake. Before the widespread return to VFR,
however, expect a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the
frontal passage near dawn. For the final few hours of the
current TAF period, all terminals will return to VFR conditions
with light westerly flow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of brief flight restrictions with
convection may vary for this evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 06/11/20
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH
NEAR TERM...MEK/JLB
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MEK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
658 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-027>031-
112300-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-
658 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, followed by a line
of storms this evening and tonight. The main severe weather threats will
be strong wind gusts. However, an isolated tornado may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ024>026-032-034-039-040-515-517-519>523-525-526-112300-
Mingo-Logan-Boone-Taylor-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
658 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, followed by a line
of storms this evening and tonight. A Slight Risk of severe weather
exists, indicating that scattered severe storms may occur. The main
severe weather threats today will be strong wind gusts. However, an
isolated tornado may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-516-518-524-112300-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-
Southeast Pocahontas-
658 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, followed by a line
of storms this evening and tonight. A Marginal Risk of severe
weather exists, indicating that isolated severe storms may occur.
The main severe weather threats today will be strong wind gusts and
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
404 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>033-039-040-525-102200-
Lawrence-Carter-Boyd-Greenup-Lawrence-Vinton-Athens-Meigs-Gallia-
Jackson-Morgan-Perry-Washington-Dickenson-Buchanan-Doddridge-
Northwest
Randolph-Roane-Wood-Upshur-Lewis-Mingo-Wayne-Harrison-Logan-Gilmer-
Cabell-Wirt-Kanawha-Lincoln-Braxton-Calhoun-Barbour-Jackson-Clay-
McDowell-Ritchie-Boone-Mason-Taylor-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-
404 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...HOT AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON...

High temperatures have reached the low 90s in spots this afternoon,
with isolated areas in the mid 90s. High moisture values will result
in very humid conditions. This afternoon, heat index values will
likely be in the upper 90s, with a few locations briefly reaching
100.

Take precautions if you work or have to spend time outside. Wear
lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible and take
frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments.
Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded
location. Children and pets should not be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. During hot weather, car interiors
can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.

LAT...LON 3702 8248 3720 8256 3754 8197 3797 8301
      3832 8334 3873 8303 3860 8274 3937 8275
      3947 8217 3993 8246 3959 8158 3944 7990
      3943 7989 3901 7969 3861 8001 3874 8046
      3775 8176 3755 8185 3743 8133 3728 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 240DEG 49KT 3979 8198

MEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
722 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSON                 39.05N  82.63W
06/10/2020                   JACKSON            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL BRANCHES DOWN. POWER POLE DOWN. HEAVY RAIN AND
            FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000985

ROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HAIL             1 W WARNOCK             38.49N  83.02W
06/10/2020  M1.00 INCH       GREENUP            KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000986

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
751 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCARTHUR                39.25N  82.47W
06/10/2020                   VINTON             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE WHOLE
            COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000987

ROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
758 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW ALBANY             39.21N  82.22W
06/10/2020  M53 MPH          ATHENS             OH   AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000988

WEBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
810 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOAD                    38.55N  82.97W
06/10/2020                   GREENUP            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES. ALSO, DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000989

ROCHE