Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will linger over the region into tonight.
Subtropical high pressure will then build across the region through
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

Surface analysis shows a boundary oriented from northeast to
southwest across North Carolina, primarily noticeable by a dewpoint
gradient. Nearly all afternoon convection has formed along and to
the south of this boundary across southern North Carolina, although
there are some rogue showers and a storm north of US 64. Wind gusts
remain the primary concern for severe weather with dry air aloft and
modest values of DCAPE. CAPE is plentiful, although wind shear is
minimal. In fact, with such little steering flow, storm motion has
been slow, and with precipitable water values between 1.5 and 1.8,
this raises the potential for flash flooding. The focus of storms
should slowly shift to the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon,
with only a slight chance of showers/storms remaining east of I-95
during the evening hours before conditions dry out. Expect typical
North Carolina summertime lows overnight, with temperatures
bottoming out in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

As the boundary moves east along the North Carolina shoreline, the
focus of precipitation will also move east. Have retained a slight
chance of showers across southern and eastern counties, but really
think that most precipitation should be contained to coastal areas.
With a little bit less cloud cover around, high temperatures should
creep up a couple degrees bringing all locations into the lower 90s.
No showers/storms are expected after sunset Tuesday night, and lows
will fall into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 121 PM Monday...

Mid level ridging will dominate the wx pattern over the Carolinas
Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in above normal temps with heat
index values 100 and below climo daily PoPs.  The ridge will begin
to weaken across the East Friday through Sunday as the ridge center
shifts westward toward then over the Central Plains. By Monday, a
weak trough will be in place over our region, between the ridge
center over the Central Plains and the ridge center over Bermuda.
Thus the chance for afternoon and evening showers and tstms will
increase back to climo, or perhaps even a little above climo, Friday
through Monday, along with temps a couple deg cooler thanks to
increased cloud coverage and rain shower coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon, with the greatest activity across eastern ports such
as FAY/RWI. While a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at INT/GSO, had
less confidence in those locations, and downgraded the precipitation
mention to a VCSH mention instead of a VCTS mention. There should be
no widespread restrictions from precipitation, although heavier
showers/storms could produce brief restrictions that are not
specifically mentioned in the TAFs. All precipitation should come to
an end shortly after sunset. While some model guidance suggested
that there could be restrictions around dawn, feel that any such
restrictions would likely be related to where rainfall occurs today
and that a mention of restrictions could wait until a later TAF
package once rainfall has been observed.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through Saturday.
There is a chance of an afternoon or early evening thunderstorm,
with details generally low confidence at any given location at this
time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Green/Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
432 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ007>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-088-089-140845-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
432 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today into the early evening.
Locally heavy rainfall and wind gusts to 40 or 50 mph will be likely
in the strongest storms. Frequent lightning will also pose a hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

Heat index values of 97 to 102 are expected each afternoon through
the forecast period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ073>076-083>086-140845-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
432 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread hazardous weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

Heat index values of 99 to 102 are expected each afternoon Wednesday
through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021>024-038>040-140845-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
432 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Heat index values in the upper 90s can be expected each afternoon
Wednesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ073-074-083-084-131930-
Stanly NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Montgomery NC-
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ANSON...SOUTHERN
MONTGOMERY...RICHMOND AND SOUTHEASTERN STANLY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

At 242 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles west of Ansonville
to 7 miles north of Cheraw Municipal Airport. Movement was east at 35
mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rockingham, Wadesboro, Hamlet, Ansonville, Polkton, Norwood, Mount
Gilead, Ellerbe, Dobbins Heights and Lilesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 8028 3520 8028 3518 8031 3521 8031
      3525 7967 3519 7966 3515 7961 3488 7960
      3485 7963 3482 7962 3482 7963 3480 7969
      3482 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 256DEG 30KT 3509 8024 3482 7992

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
307 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ085-086-132000-
Scotland NC-Hoke NC-
307 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SCOTLAND AND HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

At 305 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Hoffman, or 11 miles west of Raeford, moving
southeast at 5 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Laurinburg, Raeford, Maxton, Antioch, Wagram, Gibson, East
Laurinburg, Laurel Hill, Rockfish and Camp Mackall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 7969 3482 7963 3482 7962 3485 7963
      3491 7956 3494 7959 3499 7957 3504 7946
      3508 7942 3506 7909 3504 7909 3499 7905
      3497 7904 3493 7907 3483 7919 3484 7935
      3482 7936 3477 7933 3463 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 301DEG 4KT 3495 7941

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ078-086-088-089-132015-
Sampson NC-Hoke NC-Wayne NC-Cumberland NC-
315 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...
SAMPSON...CUMBERLAND AND NORTHEASTERN HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

At 314 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Clinton to near
Fayetteville. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Clinton, Fort Bragg, Harrells, Godwin, Pope AFB, Hope
Mills, Spring Lake, Eastover and Roseboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 7835 3485 7850 3485 7883 3483 7890
      3492 7896 3495 7903 3492 7907 3514 7918
      3526 7841 3531 7815 3518 7811 3519 7816
      3509 7817 3490 7815 3474 7820 3471 7813
      3472 7811 3471 7811 3468 7816
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 291DEG 28KT 3507 7840 3499 7890

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             2 N PEACHLAND           35.02N 80.27W
07/13/2020  E0.88 INCH       ANSON              NC   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ078-132030-
Wayne NC-
325 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Grange, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Olive, Walnut Creek, Seven Springs and Cliffs Of The Neuse
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 7784 3516 7789 3517 7793 3516 7796
      3517 7797 3518 7799 3518 7800 3519 7800
      3519 7804 3518 7807 3518 7809 3519 7811
      3535 7782
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 239DEG 12KT 3522 7783

10