Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will linger over the region into tonight.
Subtropical high pressure will then build across the region through
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

Surface analysis shows a boundary oriented from northeast to
southwest across North Carolina, primarily noticeable by a dewpoint
gradient. Nearly all afternoon convection has formed along and to
the south of this boundary across southern North Carolina, although
there are some rogue showers and a storm north of US 64. Wind gusts
remain the primary concern for severe weather with dry air aloft and
modest values of DCAPE. CAPE is plentiful, although wind shear is
minimal. In fact, with such little steering flow, storm motion has
been slow, and with precipitable water values between 1.5 and 1.8,
this raises the potential for flash flooding. The focus of storms
should slowly shift to the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon,
with only a slight chance of showers/storms remaining east of I-95
during the evening hours before conditions dry out. Expect typical
North Carolina summertime lows overnight, with temperatures
bottoming out in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

As the boundary moves east along the North Carolina shoreline, the
focus of precipitation will also move east. Have retained a slight
chance of showers across southern and eastern counties, but really
think that most precipitation should be contained to coastal areas.
With a little bit less cloud cover around, high temperatures should
creep up a couple degrees bringing all locations into the lower 90s.
No showers/storms are expected after sunset Tuesday night, and lows
will fall into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 121 PM Monday...

Mid level ridging will dominate the wx pattern over the Carolinas
Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in above normal temps with heat
index values 100 and below climo daily PoPs.  The ridge will begin
to weaken across the East Friday through Sunday as the ridge center
shifts westward toward then over the Central Plains. By Monday, a
weak trough will be in place over our region, between the ridge
center over the Central Plains and the ridge center over Bermuda.
Thus the chance for afternoon and evening showers and tstms will
increase back to climo, or perhaps even a little above climo, Friday
through Monday, along with temps a couple deg cooler thanks to
increased cloud coverage and rain shower coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon, with the greatest activity across eastern ports such
as FAY/RWI. While a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at INT/GSO, had
less confidence in those locations, and downgraded the precipitation
mention to a VCSH mention instead of a VCTS mention. There should be
no widespread restrictions from precipitation, although heavier
showers/storms could produce brief restrictions that are not
specifically mentioned in the TAFs. All precipitation should come to
an end shortly after sunset. While some model guidance suggested
that there could be restrictions around dawn, feel that any such
restrictions would likely be related to where rainfall occurs today
and that a mention of restrictions could wait until a later TAF
package once rainfall has been observed.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through Saturday.
There is a chance of an afternoon or early evening thunderstorm,
with details generally low confidence at any given location at this
time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Green/Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
432 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ007>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-088-089-140845-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
432 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today into the early evening.
Locally heavy rainfall and wind gusts to 40 or 50 mph will be likely
in the strongest storms. Frequent lightning will also pose a hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

Heat index values of 97 to 102 are expected each afternoon through
the forecast period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ073>076-083>086-140845-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
432 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread hazardous weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

Heat index values of 99 to 102 are expected each afternoon Wednesday
through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021>024-038>040-140845-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
432 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Heat index values in the upper 90s can be expected each afternoon
Wednesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             2 N PEACHLAND           35.02N 80.27W
07/13/2020  E0.88 INCH       ANSON              NC   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ078-132030-
Wayne NC-
325 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Grange, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Olive, Walnut Creek, Seven Springs and Cliffs Of The Neuse
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 7784 3516 7789 3517 7793 3516 7796
      3517 7797 3518 7799 3518 7800 3519 7800
      3519 7804 3518 7807 3518 7809 3519 7811
      3535 7782
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 239DEG 12KT 3522 7783

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
341 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ073-074-083-084-132030-
Stanly NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Montgomery NC-
341 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ANSON...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN RICHMOND AND SOUTHEASTERN
STANLY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 340 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ansonville, or 12 miles north of Wadesboro, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ansonville, Norwood, Mount Gilead, Uwharrie Haven and Lake Tillery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8009 3505 8022 3513 8024 3523 8019
      3525 8003 3514 7995 3505 7999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 224DEG 7KT 3515 8011

26

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