Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep southerly flow in advance of a slow moving cold front
approaching from the west will keep a moist and humid air mass in
place through Saturday. A cold front will move through the region
late Saturday night, bringing cooler and drier air to NC Sunday and
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM Friday...

...Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms continues this afternoon
and evening...

...Isolated flash flooding is again possible this afternoon and
evening...

Ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and within the right
entrance region of a 90kt 300 mb jet over the southern/central
Appalachians, deep southerly flow will continue to direct a plume of
tropical moisture(1.75-2.0") over central and eastern NC. Shortwave
impulses embedded within the deep southerly will interact with the
moisten-laden and unstable air in place to support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Partial
breaks in low overcast will fuel further destabilization by
the afternoon, which should lead to a diurnal flare up.

Given the wet antecedent conditions that have developed across all of
central NC over the past 2 weeks(most of central NC running 300 to
400% of normal)and with convective storm motion largely parallel to
the deep southerly flow, flash flooding will be a concern today,
especially across the eastern third of the forecast area. At times,
hourly rainfall amounts of 1 to 2" will be possible over localized
areas.

Also, deep layer shear of 25 to 35 kts is slightly better and more
uniform distributed across central NC, so there will be a chance for
a few severe storms as well.

As the mid-level trough advances east, over the region, the
deeper moisture and upper jet axis is forecast to shift east
which should leave to drier conditions overnight/early Saturday
morning across the western half/two-thirds of the forecast area.

Highs today in the lower to mid 80s. Lows tonight in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 AM Friday...

...Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly in the east on
Saturday afternoon and early evening...

At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday
morning with the pre-frontal trough. However, the main cold front
will move across the region late Saturday (west) and in the east
Saturday night. The continuation of high PW (1.5 inches, especially
in the east, along with partial clearing and heating will allow for
additional showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, especially
in the east on Saturday afternoon and evening. The steering flow
will be stronger allowing for quicker movement of the convection. In
addition, the western Piedmont will begin to see a reduction in
convection chances due to the flow veering to more WSW instead of
southerly. Dew points will come down into the lower 60s in the
afternoon, with PW forecast to fall into the 1 inch range. Highs
will be warmer with less in the way of low level moisture and more
periods of sunshine. Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.
Showers and thunderstorms will end in the east late, otherwise
turning cooler and clearing skies are expected Saturday night. Lows
in the 50s west and north to mid 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 AM Friday...

...Cooler and drier Sunday and Monday followed by a warming trend
mid-week...

Troughing over the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic states will
bring cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. The
surface high pressure will build overhead late Monday into
Monday night. This will be the coolest night. Highs Sunday
and Monday will be in the 70s, with lows in the 50s. There
should be some upper 40s in the normally cooler areas both nights.

June weather will return by mid-week as temperatures and
dew points rise as upper ridging builds. A NW flow a top the
ridge will give birth to a wavy surface front to our north
by Wednesday and Thursday where showers and thunderstorms will
track. If the front gets close to the region, the chance of
PM scattered thunderstorms will return. Highs return to the mid to
upper 80s, with lows in the mid to upper 60s Wed-Thu. We
will leave POP out for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

A warm and humid airmass continues to support scattered to numerous
showers and storms across central NC.  Morning storms from RDU east
have shifted mostly east of RWI and fAY, while additional storms
developing near CLT are poised to shift east and possibly impact
RDU/FAY/RWI in the 19-23Z time frame.  MVFR conditions will mostly
prevail outside of the storms, with heavy rain, gusty winds and
IFR/LIFR when the storms pass.

Stratus should redevelop again tonight, with models suggesting IFR
more likely from RDU east, perhaps remaining MVFR at GSO/INT.  Expect
stratus will slowly lift through midday Saturday, with showers and
storms again favored from RDU east.

Looking ahead after 18z/Saturday: A cold front will move east
through the area by Saturday evening. Drier and cooler air in the
wake of the cold front will result in predominately VFR conditions
Sunday through early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL/Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...BLS/CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
409 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-300815-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
409 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms may again produce locally heavy rainfall,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Urban and small stream flooding
may occur. In addition... a few of the thunderstorms may become
strong to locally severe, with isolated damaging wind gusts the main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
and early evening over the eastern sections of North Carolina. The
main threat is damaging wind gusts to near 60 mph.

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
134 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S ASHEBORO            35.71N 79.81W
05/29/2020                   RANDOLPH           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS IN
            ASHEBORO, NC.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
144 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

NCZ073-074-083-084-291845-
Stanly NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Montgomery NC-
144 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ANSON...
MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN RICHMOND AND SOUTHEASTERN STANLY COUNTIES UNTIL
245 PM EDT...

At 144 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms near Ansonville, or 13 miles southeast of
Albemarle, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Wadesboro, Troy, Biscoe, Ansonville, Polkton, Norwood,
Badin, Mount Gilead and Ellerbe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 8028 3519 8029 3535 8028 3551 7977
      3532 7971 3528 7971 3525 7970 3524 7967
      3519 7966 3517 7962 3512 7957 3507 7958
      3506 7955 3483 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 252DEG 35KT 3519 8009

23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
204 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW TURKEY             34.95N 78.25W
05/29/2020                   SAMPSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGH WATER AND FLOODED ROADWAYS NEAR
            CLINTON, NC.

&&

AS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>