Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
328 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

A weak disturbance in the northwest flow aloft today, is helping to
kick off thunderstorms this afternoon and will continue to do so
into the evening.  The central and eastern mtns and eastern plains
will see the majority of the storms, with storms being more isolated
over the southwest mtns.  Drier low levels in the San Luis Valley
and southwest mtn areas should result in storms having the potential
for strong wind gusts.  Storms over eastern areas will have to
potential to be stronger, with heavy rain and hail.  There could
even be a few severe storms into the evening, with hail up to half
dollar size.  The more recent burn scars (Decker, Hayden Pass,
Junkins, and Spring), could see some stronger storms with heavy rain
which could pose a flash flood risk into this evening.  Most
showers/storms will likely end by midnight, but there is the
possibility of some lingering activity near the eastern border into
the late night.

It still looks like some drier air will work its way over the area
for Wed, but there will still be enough moisture for isolated to
scattered showers/storms.  Most storms Wed afternoon will be over
the central and eastern mtns and the adjacent lower elevations, with
the far southeast plains probably being dry through the afternoon,
and only some isolated shower/storms being possible over the
southwest mtns.  Although there could be one or two severe storms
with wind gusts around 60 mph and quarter size hail, at this time
the threat of severe weather on Wed should be lower than today.
Temps on Wed generally look a little warmer with upper 80s and lower
90s over the plains and upper 70s and lower 80s in the high valleys
and in the 70s in Teller County.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Wednesday Night and Thursday:

Shortwave ripples in the upper level ridge will continue to produce
showers and thunderstorms over the mountains which will spread east
over the lower elevations. The main areas that will be impacted by
the thunderstorms over the lower elevations will be over the Raton
Mesa and the Palmer Divide. The best CAPE values during Wednesday
evening will be over the Raton Mesa and across the southeastern
plains, with values around 1,500 J/kg. The limiting factor for
severe weather potential will be the wind shear, with 6km bulk
shear values around 10 to 20 kts expected. The environmental set-
up is conducive for a low end severe risk through Wednesday
evening, cells will develop quickly due to higher CAPE values, but
won't be able to be sustained due to poor shear. Gusty outflows
of around 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lighting will be the
main risks, but there is a chance for a rogue 60 mph wind gust
and 1 inch diameter hail. The thunderstorms will dissipate around
midnight.

Warmer temperatures are expected Thursday afternoon as a ridge axis
develops overhead. High temperatures will reach the upper 90s with a
few 100F high temperatures possible over the far eastern plains. The
shortwave ripples embedded in the upper level ridge will spark
convective initiation in the late morning and early afternoon,
starting over the northern mountains, then spreading south. The
instability over the mountains is low tomorrow, so burn scar flash
flood risks are low, but still possible. Higher CAPE values will
be found east of the dryline, over the eastern plains. The
shortwave will propagate over the dryline, initializing some
strong to severe thunderstorms later tomorrow afternoon since the
CAPE values will be around 2,0000 J/kg and 6km bulk shear values
will be around 25-30 kts. Model guidance are in disagreement,
though, with the NAM and ECMWF keep the dryline over eastern
Colorado and the GFS has the dryline over western Kansas. PoP and
QPF grids represent the NAM and ECMWF.

Friday and Saturday:

Wildly different outcomes are being resolved for Friday afternoon
and Saturday. The ECMWF has a shortwave trough evolving into a
closed low over southern Colorado on Friday afternoon, where as the
GFS and NAM barely have the trough over the Great Basin and has
the trough reaching southern Colorado early Saturday morning. WPC
model diagnostics are suggesting to use a NAM/GFS blend, which I
blended with.

Sunday and Monday:

There is long term deterministic model agreement that a closed low
will propagate from the Pacific Northwest south over the Great
Basin. The ensembles, however, reveal much more uncertainty, with
high sigma values over the entirety of the closed low. Honestly,
there is a fair amount of numerical shoulder shrugs going on with
the latest guidance, but the forecast is for temperatures will be
hot again on Sunday and Monday in response to the southwesterly
flow aloft. 100F high temperatures are possible over the eastern
plains, the mid-80s over the mountain valleys, and 70s over Lake
and Teller Counties. Scattered thunderstorms are possible over
the mountains and near critical fire weather conditions over the
lower elevations. Near critical fire weather conditons are also
possible on Monday afternoon, as the low pressure center continues
to spin over the Great Basin region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
However there is the chance that some thunderstorms with heavy rain
could move into the KCOS and/or KPUB areas this evening and could
cause some brief MVFR conditions.  Storms chances at KCOS and KPUB
should end by 07Z.  On Wed showers/storms will be possible in the
KCOS area mainly after 19Z, with KALS possibly seeing showers/storms
after about 21Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-241715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1101 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected over the
southeast mountains and eastern plains today, and a few storms
could become strong to severe, mainly along and east of
Interstate 25. Gusty winds near 60 mph and hail up to half dollar
size will be possible, and locally heavy rainfall may occur on
area burn scars leading to a flash flood risk. More isolated
thunderstorms are expected over the Continental Divide, into the
San Luis and Upper Arkansas Valleys. These storms will produce
gusty winds and lightning, but little rainfall, which may lead to
fire starts given the dry fuels in the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday and Thursday, with the best coverage over and near the
higher terrain. Storms will be high based, producing more gusty
outflow winds and less wetting rainfall. This will lead to
possible critical fire weather conditions, especially for areas
along the Continental Divide.

For Friday and into Saturday, slightly cooler temperatures and a
better coverage of wetting rain showers and thunderstorms can be
expected.

Warmer, drier and breezy southwesterly flow across the area on
Sunday and Monday, will allow for less thunderstorm coverage and
lead to more critical fire weather conditions across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely across the eastern mountains and southeast plains this
afternoon and evening.

28/28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
153 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ087-088-232015-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
153 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HUERFANO AND NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 151 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Walsenburg, moving southeast at 15 mph, and a
second storm just east of Walsenburg, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Huerfano and north central Las Animas Counties.

LAT...LON 3774 10475 3786 10459 3774 10419 3747 10465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 317DEG 11KT 3775 10461

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
156 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ088-094-232030-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
156 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

At 155 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Tyrone, or 25 miles north of Trinidad, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tyrone and Model.

LAT...LON 3732 10437 3751 10458 3774 10420 3738 10394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 240DEG 12KT 3752 10434

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
209 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ081-082-084-085-232100-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
209 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TELLER AND WEST
CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 209 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Woodland Park, or 16 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Western Colorado Springs, Woodland Park, Manitou Springs, Green
Mountain Falls, Pikes Peak, Crystola, Chipita Park and Cascade.

LAT...LON 3900 10518 3907 10507 3890 10476 3876 10497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 318DEG 19KT 3899 10506

RODRIGUEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
237 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ088-094-232115-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
237 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MDT...

At 234 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tyrone, moving east at 15 mph, and another storm 8 miles northeast
of Model, moving at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tyrone and Thatcher.

LAT...LON 3742 10431 3760 10425 3760 10388 3718 10388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 285DEG 11KT 3749 10420

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
351 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ094-097-099-232230-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
351 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BACA...EAST CENTRAL
LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 351 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southeast of Higbee, or 29 miles southeast of North La Junta,
moving east at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Baca,
east central Las Animas and south central Bent Counties.

LAT...LON 3756 10337 3773 10324 3774 10288 3746 10296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 278DEG 6KT 3766 10317

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
354 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ093-094-232230-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
354 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 353 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Timpas, or 23 miles south of La Junta, moving east
at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Otero
and northeastern Las Animas Counties.

LAT...LON 3758 10379 3776 10376 3776 10347 3747 10353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 282DEG 13KT 3766 10368

MJG