Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Pueblo, CO

311 
WWUS55 KPUB 232014
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
214 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COC027-043-101-232045-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200623T2045Z/
Fremont CO-Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
214 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FREMONT...NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL
PUEBLO COUNTIES...

At 214 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles west of
Junkins Burn Scar, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Junkins Burn Scar, Silver Cliff and Rosita. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 10539 3813 10503 3798 10532 3825 10555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 323DEG 18KT 3817 10533 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RODRIGUEZ

304 
WWUS55 KPUB 232037
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
237 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COC027-043-101-232046-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200623T2045Z/
Fremont CO-Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
237 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FREMONT...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
245 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3833 10539 3813 10503 3798 10532 3825 10555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 323DEG 18KT 3808 10525 

$$

RODRIGUEZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 426 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Still some lingering convection early this morning near the Palmer
Divide and across ern El Paso county, though given current weakening
trend on radar, expect most activity to diminish by 12z, and won't
include an early morning mention in the new forecast. Pattern today
looks similar to yesterday, with weak e-se upslope winds under
modest northwest flow aloft. 0-6km shear along and east of the
mountains generally unchanged versus yesterday, ranging from 30-40
kts, while instability today may end up slightly higher, as forecast
CAPE rises into the 1000-1500 j/kg range along and east of I-25.
Overall, would expect slightly better coverage of tsra today given
better moisture/instability, with a mainly low end severe threat
over the eastern mountains and plains, which is indicated well by
the SWODY1 marginal risk area. West of the Sangres, will continue
with low pops for isolated tsra, with a chance for dry storms back
toward the Continental Divide where surface and low level moisture
remains sparse. Max temps today will likely drift downward a few
degf over the eastern half of the area as moisture and clouds
increase, while interior valleys and wrn high terrain see readings
similar to Mon. Tonight, convection again shifts e-sw across the
plains in the evening, ending by midnight over all but extreme
eastern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 426 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Wednesday-Thursday...Latest guidance continues to indicate some
drier air working into the region within generally weak west to
northwest flow aloft across the region. There will, however, be
enough residual moisture to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms from the late morning through the early evening hours,
with the best coverage expected over and near the higher terrain.
Model soundings continue to indicate convection will be trending to
more higher based storms, producing more gusty winds and less
wetting rainfall, which could be produce localized critical fire
weather conditions, especially along and west of the ContDvd. By
Thursday, models indicating lee troughing pushing east across the
plains, with a few stronger storms possible across the far southeast
plains, as a dryline pushes into western Kansas. Temperatures are
expected to warm back to above seasonal levels, with highs in upper
80s to upper 90s across the plains and in the 70s and 80s across the
higher terrain.

Thursday night-Friday night...Models in agreement of an upper trough
moving across the region later Thursday and Friday, though differ on
strength of said system, with the latest GFS the deepest with the
system. At any rate, passing system sends a cold front across the
eastern plains, with moisture pooling along and behind the front
could see a few early morning showers across the plains on Friday,
with good chances of showers and storms over and near the higher
terrain Friday afternoon and evening. With the increased available
moisture, storms on Friday could be on the strong side, especially
if the GFS solution is followed. Temperatures are expected to cool
slightly for Friday.

Saturday-Monday...Warmer and drier westerly flow develops again
through the day Saturday, with breezy southwest flow advertised for
the late weekend into early next week. This will lead to
progressively less and more higher based convection and the
potential for more critical fire weather days across south central
and southeast Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KCOS, KPUB and KALS
this afternoon and evening. In general, VFR conditions are
expected the next 24 hrs, however it is possible that brief MVFR
conditions could occur if a heavier thunderstorms moves into the
vicinity of the terminal forecast points, along with strong wind
gusts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-241715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1101 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected over the
southeast mountains and eastern plains today, and a few storms
could become strong to severe, mainly along and east of
Interstate 25. Gusty winds near 60 mph and hail up to half dollar
size will be possible, and locally heavy rainfall may occur on
area burn scars leading to a flash flood risk. More isolated
thunderstorms are expected over the Continental Divide, into the
San Luis and Upper Arkansas Valleys. These storms will produce
gusty winds and lightning, but little rainfall, which may lead to
fire starts given the dry fuels in the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday and Thursday, with the best coverage over and near the
higher terrain. Storms will be high based, producing more gusty
outflow winds and less wetting rainfall. This will lead to
possible critical fire weather conditions, especially for areas
along the Continental Divide.

For Friday and into Saturday, slightly cooler temperatures and a
better coverage of wetting rain showers and thunderstorms can be
expected.

Warmer, drier and breezy southwesterly flow across the area on
Sunday and Monday, will allow for less thunderstorm coverage and
lead to more critical fire weather conditions across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely across the eastern mountains and southeast plains this
afternoon and evening.

28/28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1209 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ074-087-088-231845-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
1209 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO AND WEST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM MDT...

At 1209 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Spanish Peaks, or 15 miles east of Indian Creek on
the southeastern Spring Burn Scar, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Aguilar.

LAT...LON 3736 10481 3743 10492 3759 10483 3743 10447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 240DEG 13KT 3742 10483

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1228 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ074-088-231915-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
1228 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

At 1228 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Gulnare, or 19 miles northwest of Trinidad, moving southeast at
5 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cokedale, Segundo, Gulnare, Boncarbo and Weston.

LAT...LON 3724 10503 3737 10492 3735 10450 3699 10471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 286DEG 5KT 3728 10482

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
107 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ074-087-088-231945-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
107 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 104 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Aguilar. Another strong storm was centered 7
miles southwest of Walsenburg. These storms were moving east at
20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Walsenburg and Aguilar.

LAT...LON 3744 10490 3767 10496 3749 10429 3734 10433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 263DEG 16KT 3745 10453

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
141 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ072-076>079-232015-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
141 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 141 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Texas Creek, or 12 miles east of Hayden Pass Burn Scar, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cotopaxi, Texas Creek and Hillside.

LAT...LON 3845 10573 3852 10554 3829 10519 3813 10560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 333DEG 16KT 3836 10554

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
153 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ087-088-232015-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
153 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HUERFANO AND NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 151 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Walsenburg, moving southeast at 15 mph, and a
second storm just east of Walsenburg, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Huerfano and north central Las Animas Counties.

LAT...LON 3774 10475 3786 10459 3774 10419 3747 10465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 317DEG 11KT 3775 10461

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
156 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

COZ088-094-232030-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
156 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

At 155 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Tyrone, or 25 miles north of Trinidad, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tyrone and Model.

LAT...LON 3732 10437 3751 10458 3774 10420 3738 10394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 240DEG 12KT 3752 10434

MJG