Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
145 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...Rest of Tonight...Isolated Showers and
thunderstorms have already developed over the Central Mountains
this afternoon while the earlier line of showers from this
morning exits into western Wyoming. Several short term models show
a developing line of showers/thunderstorms during the mid-
afternoon hours across the Arco Desert/Upper Snake River Plain
tracking southeastward across the I-15 corridor and Idaho Falls to
Rexburg. Within the organized line would be the potential for
small hail and gusty winds while it continues it trek toward the
Teton Valley early this evening. Out ahead of this line, isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as well, including the
southern highland areas all the way to eastward to Bear Lake.
Eastern Magic Valley area and South Hills areas area least likely
to see thunderstorm develop but are expected to see gusty west or
northwest winds. Improvement to wind speeds and decreasing chances
of thunderstorms are forecast between 8 pm and 10 pm.

.Sunday through Tuesday...Zonal flow will allow for mild
temperatures and generally light winds this forecast period. A
ridge of high pressure begins to build back into the area from the
south by Monday, which will shift our winds back from the
southwest and begin to increase temperatures slightly. This time
period is expected to be precipitation free.
ND

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.
A weak system will pass east south of Idaho but expect a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern part of the state near
the Wyoming border.  Will be dry Wednesday and Thursday with the
chance of showers returning mainly to the central mountains and
eastern highlands.  Temperatures will be above normal through
Friday with cooling expected by Saturday as the next system works
east.   Low confidence at the end of the long term period as models
greatly different with GFS slower and wetter and European model
drier and weaker with the end of the week system.  Winds may
increase by Friday into Saturday as well.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible through
sunset tonight with some breezy conditions as well.   Gusts of 20 to
30 mph will be possible especially in zones 410.  Brunt of
thunderstorm activity will be in zones 475, 476, 422, 410 and 411.
All locations will see at least isolated activity.  Humidity is way
up today and should remain so through Sunday.  Temperatures will
begin to moderate Sunday and remain above normal through next week.
Next chance for showers will be in the far east Tuesday mainly zones
413, 410 and 411.  Could be breezy as well Tuesday but not expecting
highlights as humidity stays above 15 percent.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon and have vicinity at all sites with SUN, BYi and DIJ
most likely to see on station but can't rule out anywhere. Will
have 10 to 20 knot sustained winds through sunset at all sites
before dying down. Will have clear skies throughout the day Sunday
with up valley 10 to 15 knot afternoon winds at PIH and IDA. GK

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...Air Quality concerns from regional wildfire
smoke look to improve today as a low pressure trough moves through
our area and flow turns more westerly. This essentially 'closes
off' flow from the CA wildfires for the time being. Keep in mind
though that smoke from local wildfires will certainly still impact
the air quality. This pattern of a general westerly flow looks to
continue through Monday before gradually opening back up again
from the southwest.
ND

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
256 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

IDZ051-052-068-074-075-192145-
Arco/Mud Lake Desert ID-Shoshone/Lava Beds ID-
Wood River Foothills ID-Big Lost Highlands/Copper Basin ID-
Lost River Valleys ID-
256 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BLAINE...SOUTHWESTERN
BUTTE AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 255 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Carey, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carey, Picabo, Craters Of The Moon and Shoshone Ice Caves.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Conditions are favorable for funnel clouds across the affected area.
These funnel clouds are not expected to touch down, however if they
do touch down, winds are expected to be 50 mph or less.  The National
Weather Service in Pocatello is monitoring the system closely.

&&

LAT...LON 4359 11335 4332 11318 4307 11430 4323 11438
      4326 11437 4326 11439 4327 11440 4329 11440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 251DEG 19KT 4333 11374

ND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
258 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     HAIL             3 NNW MOORE             43.78N 113.38W
09/19/2020  E0.50 INCH       BUTTE              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL. LOTS OF LIGHTNING. MODERATE
            RAIN.

0224 PM     HAIL             2 NNW MOORE             43.77N 113.38W
09/19/2020  E0.88 INCH       BUTTE              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STRONG WIND GUSTS EST 40 MPH. LOTS OF LIGHTNING.

0233 PM     HAIL             1 SE DARLINGTON         43.81N 113.41W
09/19/2020  E0.50 INCH       BUTTE              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MODERATE RAIN AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING.

&&

MH

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