Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
145 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...Rest of Tonight...Isolated Showers and
thunderstorms have already developed over the Central Mountains
this afternoon while the earlier line of showers from this
morning exits into western Wyoming. Several short term models show
a developing line of showers/thunderstorms during the mid-
afternoon hours across the Arco Desert/Upper Snake River Plain
tracking southeastward across the I-15 corridor and Idaho Falls to
Rexburg. Within the organized line would be the potential for
small hail and gusty winds while it continues it trek toward the
Teton Valley early this evening. Out ahead of this line, isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as well, including the
southern highland areas all the way to eastward to Bear Lake.
Eastern Magic Valley area and South Hills areas area least likely
to see thunderstorm develop but are expected to see gusty west or
northwest winds. Improvement to wind speeds and decreasing chances
of thunderstorms are forecast between 8 pm and 10 pm.

.Sunday through Tuesday...Zonal flow will allow for mild
temperatures and generally light winds this forecast period. A
ridge of high pressure begins to build back into the area from the
south by Monday, which will shift our winds back from the
southwest and begin to increase temperatures slightly. This time
period is expected to be precipitation free.
ND

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.
A weak system will pass east south of Idaho but expect a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern part of the state near
the Wyoming border.  Will be dry Wednesday and Thursday with the
chance of showers returning mainly to the central mountains and
eastern highlands.  Temperatures will be above normal through
Friday with cooling expected by Saturday as the next system works
east.   Low confidence at the end of the long term period as models
greatly different with GFS slower and wetter and European model
drier and weaker with the end of the week system.  Winds may
increase by Friday into Saturday as well.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible through
sunset tonight with some breezy conditions as well.   Gusts of 20 to
30 mph will be possible especially in zones 410.  Brunt of
thunderstorm activity will be in zones 475, 476, 422, 410 and 411.
All locations will see at least isolated activity.  Humidity is way
up today and should remain so through Sunday.  Temperatures will
begin to moderate Sunday and remain above normal through next week.
Next chance for showers will be in the far east Tuesday mainly zones
413, 410 and 411.  Could be breezy as well Tuesday but not expecting
highlights as humidity stays above 15 percent.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon and have vicinity at all sites with SUN, BYi and DIJ
most likely to see on station but can't rule out anywhere. Will
have 10 to 20 knot sustained winds through sunset at all sites
before dying down. Will have clear skies throughout the day Sunday
with up valley 10 to 15 knot afternoon winds at PIH and IDA. GK

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...Air Quality concerns from regional wildfire
smoke look to improve today as a low pressure trough moves through
our area and flow turns more westerly. This essentially 'closes
off' flow from the CA wildfires for the time being. Keep in mind
though that smoke from local wildfires will certainly still impact
the air quality. This pattern of a general westerly flow looks to
continue through Monday before gradually opening back up again
from the southwest.
ND

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
154 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

IDZ052-068-070-072>075-192045-
Challis/Pahsimeroi Valleys ID-Arco/Mud Lake Desert ID-
Sawtooth/Stanley Basin ID-Wood River Foothills ID-
Sun Valley Region ID-Big Lost Highlands/Copper Basin ID-
Lost River Valleys ID-
154 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon
with small hail observed...

At 151 PM MDT, trained weather spotters reported small hail within a
thunderstorm south of Ketchum. These thunderstorms will continue to
be capable of producing half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph
as they track to the northeast around 20 mph. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon.

Locations impacted include...
Hailey, Ketchum, Sun Valley, Little Wood Reservoir, Bellevue, Herd
Lake, Garfield Ranger Station, Copper Basin Airport and Twin Bridges
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4419 11399 4344 11357 4339 11453 4340 11455
      4343 11455 4347 11451 4349 11451 4350 11456
      4353 11460 4356 11459 4357 11463 4359 11465
      4359 11468 4366 11466 4369 11469 4374 11467
      4375 11469 4380 11470 4381 11471 4381 11473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 240DEG 48KT 4366 11415

ND