Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

New Castle County, DE, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

878 
WWUS41 KPHI 140808
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020


NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-142130-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1200Z-201217T1200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, 
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, 
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
308 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess
  of 12 inches possible

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east 
  central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and/or
  Thursday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Heavy Snow could result in power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ012-013-015>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-142130-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1200Z-201217T1200Z/
New Castle-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, New Brunswick, Freehold, 
Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, 
Mount Holly, Media, Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, 
Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
308 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess
  of 5 inches are possible. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, 
  southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Wednesday evening or Thursday
  morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Snow is anticipated to move into the
  region Wednesday morning and some areas in the watch may mix
  with sleet and rain. We anticipate there will likely be a sharp
  gradient in snow totals depending on precipitation type.
  Additionally heavy wet snow combined with gusty winds could
  result in sporadic power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

887 
WWUS41 KPHI 141959
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
259 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020


NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-150900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1500Z-201217T1500Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, 
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, 
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
259 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess
  of 12 inches possible. The snow may be mixed with sleet and
  freezing rain at times. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east 
  central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute Wednesday
  and the morning commute Thursday. The heavy snow could result 
  in power outages. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in southwest to northeast
  late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The snow could
  become heavy at times by late afternoon into the evening. There
  may also be some sleet and freezing rain mixed in at times. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ012-013-015>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-150900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1500Z-201217T1500Z/
New Castle-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, New Brunswick, Freehold, 
Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, 
Mount Holly, Media, Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, 
Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
259 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow mixed at times with sleet and freezing rain
  possible. Total snow accumulation in excess of 5 inches are 
  possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, 
  southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute Wednesday and the
  morning commute Thursday. The heavy wet snow combined with 
  gusty winds could result in sporadic power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is anticipated to move into the region
  southwest to northeast late Wednesday morning into the
  afternoon. The snow may become heavy at times by late afternoon
  into the evening. We anticipate there will likely be a sharp
  gradient in snow totals depending on precipitation type as the
  snow is likely to become mixed with or change to sleet, freezing
  rain, or rain across parts of the region. Precipitation may then
  change back to snow before ending Thursday morning. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

Fitzsimmons

461 
WWUS41 KPHI 150818
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
318 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-152300-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1500Z-201217T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.201216T1500Z-201217T1500Z/
Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Jim Thorpe, 
Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton
318 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 20 to 
  24 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and 
  northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on
  Wednesday and the morning commute on Thursday. The heavy snow
  could result in power outages. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in southwest to northeast
  late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The snow could
  become heavy at times late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
  evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ008>010-012-015-PAZ070-071-101>106-152300-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1500Z-201217T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.201216T1500Z-201217T1500Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, 
New Brunswick, Trenton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, 
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, 
and Doylestown
318 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations in excess of 12 inches along with ice 
  accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey 
  and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on
  Wednesday and the morning commute on Thursday. The heavy snow
  could result in power outages. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in southwest to northeast
  late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The snow could
  become heavy at times late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
  night. There may also be some sleet and freezing rain mixed in 
  at times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ013-016>019-152300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1500Z-201217T1500Z/
New Castle-Western Monmouth-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Freehold, Pennsville, 
Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, and Mount Holly
318 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of 5 inches are possible and ice
  accumulations of a light glaze are possible. Winds could gust 
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey and 
  northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute Wednesday and the
  morning commute Thursday. The heavy wet snow combined with 
  gusty winds could result in sporadic power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move into the region southwest to
  northeast late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. The snow
  may become heavy at times late Wednesday afternoon into
  Wednesday night. There will likely be a sharp gradient in snow
  totals depending on precipitation type, as the snow is likely to
  mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain, or rain across 
  parts of the region. Precipitation may then change back to snow 
  before ending Thursday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MPS

399 
WWUS41 KPHI 152029
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
329 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

NJZ013-160930-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1500Z-201217T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.WS.W.0001.201216T1700Z-201217T1500Z/
Western Monmouth-
Including the city of Freehold
329 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 
  mph.

* WHERE...Western Monmouth.

* WHEN...From noon Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute Wednesday and the 
  morning commute Thursday. The heavy wet snow combined with 
  gusty winds could result in sporadic power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move into the area Wednesday
  afternoon or early evening. The snow may become heavy at times
  Wednesday evening and overnight. There will likely be a sharp
  gradient in snow totals across Monmouth County due to snow
  mixing with or changing to sleet or rain. The highest totals
  will occur over the western portion of the county. Over the 
  eastern and southeastern portion of county, lower snowfall 
  totals are forecast. In areas where precipitation changes to 
  sleet or rain, it will then likely change back to snow before 
  ending Thursday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-160930-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.W.0001.201216T1700Z-201217T1500Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, 
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, 
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
329 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected, which may mix with sleet. Total 
  snow accumulations of 12 to 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 
  35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey 
  and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From noon Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on 
  Wednesday and the morning commute on Thursday. The heavy snow 
  could result in power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in from southwest to 
  northeast Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The snow could 
  become heavy at times Wednesday evening into Wednesday night 
  before ending Thursday morning. There may also be some sleet 
  mixed in at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ012-015-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-160930-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.W.0001.201216T1700Z-201217T1500Z/
Middlesex-Mercer-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Trenton, Media, 
Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale,
Morrisville, and Doylestown
329 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey 
  and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From noon Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on 
  Wednesday and the morning commute on Thursday. The heavy snow 
  could result in power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in from southwest to 
  northeast Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The snow could 
  become heavy at times Wednesday evening. The snow will likely 
  mix with and change to sleet late Wednesday evening and 
  Wednesday night, before ending as a period of snow on Thursday 
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-160930-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1500Z-201217T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0008.201216T1700Z-201217T1500Z/
New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Pennsville, Glassboro, 
Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, and Mount Holly
329 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Salem, Gloucester, Camden and 
  Northwestern Burlington. In Delaware, New Castle.

* WHEN...From noon Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could affect the evening commute Wednesday and the
  morning commute on Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in from southwest to
  northeast Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The snow could
  become heavy at times Wednesday evening. The snow will mix with
  and change to sleet or rain late Wednesday evening and 
  Wednesday night, before ending as a period of snow on Thursday 
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
407 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A low is expected to cross from the Carolinas off the Delmarva coast
on Monday. We'll have tranquil conditions on Tuesday, before another
low pressure system is expected to develop off the Georgia coast
late Tuesday, then quickly lift northeast near our region by
Wednesday. High pressure should build in through the remainder of
the week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front is just about off shore in our region. In the wake of
this front, we should have tranquil conditions for most of the
night, until the low developing along the northern Gulf coast gets
closer to our region during the pre dawn hours on Monday. There may
be a slight delay in the precipitation initially making it to the
ground as the boundary layer remains very dry.

As for the heart of the system on Monday, I trended the forecast
colder, and the rain snow line slightly further southeast. Even with
these changes, snow totals didn't change significantly. For
temperatures, the forecast is closest to the NAM which is the
coldest of the operational guidance. Several factors suggest that
this event could be colder than most guidance. For example, we have
a high to the south, it is a favorable low track, and persistent
northerly and northeasterly winds to start the event. Also, despite
a rather small short wave trough in the mid and upper levels which
doesn't appear to be deepening or intensifying significantly, the
jet dynamics in the mid and upper levels are significant. By mid day
tomorrow, our region will be in a prime location to have synoptic
scale lift under the right entrance region of the upper level jet.

As for precipitation type: although there will be a warm layer
aloft, it looks like this should stay mostly in the areas which will
be all rain (central Delmarva and far SE NJ). There could be a very
deep (surface to 800 mb roughly) isothermal layer right around 0C in
the vicinity of the I-95 corridor which could result in a prolonged
period of non-accumulating snow in this area. The rain snow line
should shift southeastward through the day, thanks to an atypical
temperature trend with temperatures falling through the day.

As for snow amounts: One of the big factors with snow accumulations
tomorrow is that the ground is relatively warm thanks to the above
normal conditions we've had over the weekend. Consequently, even
with the rain/snow line shifting slightly further southeast,
forecast snow totals haven't changed significantly from the previous
forecast. Generally no accumulation up to one half inch for areas
along and southeast of the I-95 corridor. 1 to 3 inches possible for
the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and northwest NJ. At this
point, the forecast remains below winter weather advisory
thresholds, and I think impacts should be limited, but will be
watching this closely overnight.

As for heavy rain: Rain amounts of 1 to  1.5 inches will be possible
over portions of Delmarva and far southeastern NJ where the best
frontogenesis forcing is located. In these areas, the precipitation
should be all rain, and these amounts, though could be heavy at
times, should not be enough to cause flash flooding or flooding
issues.

Monday night: precipitation should clear out quickly in the early
evening as this looks to be a very progressive system. Temperatures
across the region should drop into the 20s overnight. There is a
small chance that water will remain on the roadways long enough to
freeze overnight, but winds staying up around 10 mph overnight
should help to limit this possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Primary story continues to be a significant coastal storm that
will impact the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday into early
Thursday with significant wintry precipitation likely for
portions of the area.

The system starts to take shape over the southern CONUS Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a southern stream shortwave moves east
from Texas with developing surface low pressure near the
northern Gulf coast by Wednesday morning. During this time
conditions will be fairly tranquil over the forecast area as
arctic high pressure builds east towards Quebec helping funnel
cold air southward. Tuesday will be sunny but chilly with highs
mostly in the 30s followed by a cold night with lows Tuesday
night in the teens and 20s. Clouds ahead of the storm probably
won't arrive until late at night.

For Wednesday, we turn our attention to the storm and its
impacts over the region. Considering this storm is still a few
days out and the energy that will be responsible for it is only
today reaching the west coast the forecast models continue to be
in relatively good overall agreement...at least as far as the
big picture goes. During the day Wednesday deepening low
pressure looks to move north and east from near the Gulf toward
Virginia / North Carolina by late day. This will occur as the
shortwave driving it starts to take on a more negative tilt. As
is usually the case at this time range, the devil still lies in
the details with the some guidance such as the NAM featuring a
sharper, more amplified and negatively tilted upper wave
compared to other models such as the GFS. This will have a
bearing on the exact storm track and intensity with differences
of still around 100 to 150 miles or so in these details which
will be critical to precip types and amounts. Generally
speaking though low track should be to a point near or just
south of Delmarva by Wednesday evening then E/NE off the coast
through Wednesday night. This is generally a good track for
significant snows over much of eastern PA and northwestern NJ
with the rain/mix/snow transition zone setting up in the
vicinity of the urban corridor.

In terms of the sensible weather and impacts with the storm,
again, still early to be confident in the details but expect
precip to develop SW to NE around the late morning early
afternoon time frame. Most areas should at least start as snow
due to the cold airmass in place with the possible exception
being southern Delmarva east toward south coastal NJ where it
should be mostly rain. In fact a period of at least a few hours
of snow, possibly moderate to heavy at times is likely near and
especially north of the urban corridor by the latter part of
the afternoon. The challenge then becomes by around the early
evening time frame...if the low tracks farther north/west along
the coast then over over Delmarva mixed precipitation and rain
could make it into SE PA east through Ocean County...basically
through the I-95 corridor including Philly and possibly even a
bit farther north. This would limit storm total snow. A track
farther south could mean snow amounts well over 6 inches even
into places like Philadelphia. Again confidence on these details
is low but one way or another it will be quite messy. To the
north though through the northern and western Philly suburbs
through the remainder of eastern PA and NW NJ confidence is
higher in larger snow amounts. Amounts cold potentially
exceeding a foot in places. The other concern that needs to be
highlighted with this storm is winds. NE winds gusting 40 to 50+
mph look increasingly likely near the coast and this could be
enough to result in some power outages.

The worst of the storm looks to be through at least Wednesday
evening with continuing uncertainty in just how quickly it moves
out Wednesday overnight into early Thursday. Still favor a
somewhat faster end time due to the progressive nature of the
pattern so thinking is precip should wind down overnight
Wednesday night or early Thursday morning...possibly going back
over to snow before ending in the places that see a change to
rain. One more thing to mention...the ptype transition zone
could also feature some sleet and freezing rain...not something
the models have been hitting super hard but given the arctic
airmass in place with a track that may hug quite close to the
coast there is the potential for this as warm air may move over
low level colder air.

Once the storm ends Thursday the remainder of the day should
stay fairly cloudy and chilly with some lingering snow showers
possible. &&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A quiet period through Saturday as cold high pressure builds in
from the west. Temperatures will run below normal with highs
only in the low- mid 30s over most of our area, and lows in the
teens and low 20s. Naturally any snow-cover from the mid- week
system will have an impact on these temperatures and so hedged a
little colder than guidance for overnight lows over northern
parts of the forecast area where we are more confident in there
being snow cover.

The next system could arrive by next Sunday but it's too early
to have any real confidence in the details of this system as it
could be rain or snow.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

.Tonight... VFR conditions are expected this evening and tonight as
the cold front has cleared the area. Drier and cooler air will
overspread the area on a gusty W to NW wind into the early evening.
Thickening clouds from SW to NW late tonight. After dark, winds will
be mostly light and variable with a trend to NE late tonight.

.Monday... Conditions will be lowering quickly across the TAF sites
as the daytime rush begins with rains rapidly overspreading the
region along the I95 corridor and SE with snow NW of this. CIGS will
be dropping to IFR/LIFR between 10/12Z NW and 14/15Z SE. Fog will
develop as well. Precipitation will continue into the afternoon with
the possibility of some snow arriving at KPHL after 21Z or 22Z
Monday. Winds will be light NE or N early then turn NW during the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night... Generally VFR expected. North
to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...Low conditions arriving early with
LIFR/IFR expected. Rain across the S/E terminals (KACY,KMIV). Snow
expected N/W (KRDG,KABE) and a mix of rain and snow across the i-95
corridor (KILG ne to KTTN). Gusty winds and low vsbys expected in
snow which will accumulate NW.

Thursday/Friday...Conditions improving back to VFR Thu morning and
them remaining VFR into Friday. A few snow showers are possible far
N/W across the Poconos.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will shift between northeasterly and northwesterly overnight
into Monday. Wind gusts above 25 kt are possible as early as mid day
Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to continue
through Monday night for most of the area waters.

Outlook...

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Conditions should decrease below SCA
during the day on Tuesday and remain sub-SCA through Tuesday
night.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Winds and seas quickly ramp up on
Wednesday with Gale conditions likely by Wednesday evening.
Winds could even reach storm force for a time Wednesday night.
Seas also rapidly increase on the ocean waters up to 10-13ft
Wednesday night.

Thursday...Winds and seas remain elevated but the conditions
should at least diminish below Gale criteria by afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday...SCA conditions persisting but
mainly due to continuing elevated seas.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the new moon on Monday and a brief period of onshore flow ahead
of a coastal low, there could be spotty minor coastal flooding with
the high tide tonight/Monday morning. At this time, the best chance
for some minor flooding looks to be on Delaware Bay and the southern
New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coastal sites. The uncertainty
however remains higher as flooding will depend on the strength of
the storm and also given the short duration of onshore flow. For
Wednesday into Thursday, a more widespread tidal flooding event is
possible with a second coastal storm, however the actual details
this far out are uncertain at this time.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ430-431-450>453.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ454-455.

&&

Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...Fitzsimmons
Aviation...O'Hara
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Johnson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
321 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-142030-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
321 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey, east
central Pennsylvania and northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance of a couple of inches of snow Monday morning into
Monday afternoon.

A coastal storm will likely bring significant accumulating snowfall
to the area Wednesday through Wednesday night, and possibly into
Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ009-010-015-PAZ101>105-142030-
Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
321 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A coastal storm will likely bring significant accumulating snowfall
to the area Wednesday through Wednesday night, and possibly into
Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001-NJZ012>014-016>020-025-026-PAZ070-071-106-142030-
New Castle-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Atlantic-
Coastal Ocean-Delaware-Philadelphia-Lower Bucks-
321 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, central
New Jersey, northern New Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A coastal storm will likely bring significant accumulating snowfall
to the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is also the chance
for coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ002>004-NJZ021>024-027-142030-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Southeastern Burlington-
321 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A coastal storm could bring some accumulating snowfall to the area
Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is also the chance for coastal
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ012-015-019-020-142030-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
321 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A coastal storm could bring some accumulating snowfall to the area
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-142030-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
321 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale force winds are possible late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.