Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
917 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak stationary front will linger across the northern Mid-
Atlantic before washing out Saturday. On Sunday a weak cold
front will move through the region. High pressure will build
into the area Sunday behind the front, before progressing
offshore early next week. A cold front will approach New England
around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled for all but eastern
Maryland, central and southern Delaware, and southern New
Jersey.

Although still producing heavy rain, the thunderstorms are
losing the intensity they had earlier, which resulted in damage,
and even an 89 mph wind gust at Upper Deerfield, NJ.

The strongest storms are in far southeast New Jersey and moving
into southern Delmarva. Convection continues to diminish over
the next several hours, and rain should continue to taper off
through the night.

The next big concern tonight will be low stratus and fog
development. Near calm surface winds and plentiful low level
moisture combined with a saturated ground should yield areas of
fog. The trough approaching from the west should create enough
turbulence to prevent widespread dense fog, but cannot rule it
out. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday, a progressive upper trough centered near the coast
early in the day will move east with time with weak shortwave
ridging approaching by late day. This should mean an overall drier
day but there will still be significant low clouds and some fog
around to start the day. And because low level winds will be quite
light and there is so much moisture around, this could take some
time to mix out. The upshot is that the morning should be mostly
cloudy before some sun develops in the afternoon. However diurnal
heating along with the continuing abundant moisture around could
lead to some isolated to scattered afternoon storms developing. This
won't be a washout though so it should be rain-free most of the time
and many areas won't even see anything. It will still be fairly
humid with lows mostly in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Saturday night into Sunday the mid-level disturbance from Friday
will be finally exiting New England with lower PWAT air moving
across the region. As the wave exits, brief subsidence will
take shape across the area as surface high pressure centers over
the Ohio Valley. The GFS and ECMWF does have a weak upper level
disturbance traversing the Canadian Maritimes, but the system
appears to far north, with to much dry air overhead to produce
anything in the way of precipitation. Temperatures Sunday will
likely be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees as the dry air
mass will allow temperatures to over perform.

Monday temperatures will remain warm as mid-level heights rise
across the region and PWATs remain around 1.40". Tuesday into
Wednesday an upper level low will head east across central
Canada with an upper level disturbance approaching from the
west. Overall, guidance has slowed down a bit from this time
yesterday, with delaying the return of rain chances until
Tuesday. An upper level wave will approach the area from the
west Wednesday afternoon with significant uncertainty on the
track and strength of the wave. Either way, the chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns to the region Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Wednesday into Thursday a cold front will approach New England
with models showing a wide spread here. The GFS and CMC are
slightly more amplified and slower with the upper level low over
the Hudson Bay while the ECMWF is less amplified and more
progressive. The GFS stalls the front across central/ southern
NY, while the ECMWF keeps the front stalled across northern NY.
For us this means an enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...SHRA/TSRA moving south of KMIV/KACY. Otherwise, a mix
of VFR and MVFR CIGs will give way to sub-VFR in fog/stratus.
Light NE winds becoming light and variable or calm. Moderate
confidence.

Saturday-Saturday night... Mainly VFR, but areas of MVFR
possible especially near MIV and ACY during the day Saturday.
Slight chance of a rain shower but tstms not expected. Winds
mainly light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...
Sunday-Sunday night... VFR. Light and variable wind becoming SW
at 5 to 10 kt, except near the coast where an afternoon sea
breeze is likely. High confidence.

Monday...Mainly VFR with dry conditions. South winds 5 to 15
kts. High confidence.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours. South to southwest winds
5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight... Sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A
couple of wind shifts possible but easterly directions will be
prevailing and speeds mainly 10 kt or less. Scattered tstms are
possible for most of this period with locally higher winds and seas
possible in any tstms.

Outlook...
Saturday-Saturday night... Sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas 2
to 3 ft. Winds mainly NE at 5 to 10 kt becoming light and
variable overnight.

Monday...Sub-advisory winds/seas expected.

Tuesday into Wednesday...Sub-advisory winds/seas expected with a
slight chance of showers and storms.

Rip Currents...
Light onshore flow Saturday through Sunday, along with 2-3 ft
seas and a swell period of around 6-8 seconds will result in a
low risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening
rip currents.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park
Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Franklin
Township New Jersey (Station KZZ-31 ) is off the air.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ021>025.
DE...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004.
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Haines
Near Term...Fitzsimmons/MPS
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...Haines
Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Haines/MPS
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Haines
Equipment...WFO PHI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
909 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106-090115-
New Castle-Cecil-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-
Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
909 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New
Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ002-003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ021>023-090115-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Cumberland-
Atlantic-Cape May-
909 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ014-026-090115-
Eastern Monmouth-Coastal Ocean-
909 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ004-NJZ024-025-090115-
Delaware Beaches-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
909 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-090115-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
909 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HEAVY RAIN       VILLAS                  39.03N 74.94W
08/07/2020  M1.00 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH OF RAIN IN JUST 10 MINUTES IN THE
            VILLAS MIAMI BEACH SECTION.

&&

GORSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
907 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND LUDLAM BAY              39.18N 74.70W
08/07/2020  E47 MPH          ANZ453             NJ   PUBLIC

            41 KNOTS AT LUDLAM BAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW KENNETT SQUARE    39.83N 75.72W
08/07/2020                   CHESTER            PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE AT W HILLENDALE RD AND CHANDLER
            MILL RD. TIME BASED OFF OF DISPATCH.

&&

BAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW SPRINGFIELD TWP   39.94N 75.35W
08/07/2020                   DELAWARE           PA   PUBLIC

            WATER RESCUE REPORTED ON OLD MARPLE RD
            MARPLE TOWNSHIP. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            DISPATCH.

&&

BAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE LANDENBERG        39.77N 75.74W
08/07/2020                   CHESTER            PA   PUBLIC

            BROAD RUN RD AT NEWARK RD ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER. TIME ESTIMATED FROM DISPATCH.

&&

BAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
917 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

NJZ020-022-025>027-080145-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Ocean-Atlantic-Southeastern
Burlington-
917 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTH
CENTRAL OCEAN COUNTIES...

At 917 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Brigantine, or
7 miles northeast of Atlantic City, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm...and may cause
ponding on roadways and poor drainage areas. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can
strike 15 miles away from a thunderstorm. If you see lightning or
hear thunder seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Locations impacted include...
Atlantic City, Pleasantville, Ventnor City, Brigantine, Absecon,
Margate City, Tuckerton, Port Republic and Mystic Island.

This includes the following highways...
 Garden State Parkway between mile markers 46 and 50.
 Atlantic City Expressway between mile markers 0 and 3.

LAT...LON 3936 7415 3935 7415 3933 7450 3957 7451
      3962 7412 3941 7410
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 265DEG 13KT 3947 7437

Robertson