Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms have returned for tonight and early
tomorrow with a passing cold front. Slightly cooler temperature and
periodic rain chance can be expected for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm and moist advection is occurring ahead of a cold frontal
passage. This has aided CAPE values observed by satellite to exceed
1500 j/kg. Surface based instability will aid the development of
showers and thunderstorms coincident with forcing from the approach
of an initial shortwave. More widespread coverage of thunderstorms is
expected later this afternoon and evening when upper frontogenesis
and jet divergence accompany a cold frontal passage.

Isolated stronger storms may generate damaging wind gusts before
sunset. This, and any hail threat will be limited by very warm
temperature in the mid levels. Overall flow is sufficient for storm
progression to alleviate any flood threat outside of isolated
training areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the cold front propagates to the SE, some diurnal enhancement of
thunderstorms along the front is expected Tuesday afternoon in West
Virginia and Maryland counties. Further movement of the front south
accompanied by loss of insolation should move most convection out of
the region by Tuesday night. Temperature on Tuesday will be much more
comfortable after cold frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Seasonable temperature is expected Wednesday through much of the
work week as upper troughing generally persists and provides cooler
and drier air. Shortwaves within the trough accompanied by diurnal
heating will provide periodic rain chances. The best chances for
precipitation will be over the eastern ridges where orographic lift
will boost the chance for shower development.

A more widespread precipitation event is expected next weekend as
models indicate a more organized sfc low pressure will lift out of
the lower Mississippi River Valley toward the upper Ohio River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR cumulus is expected to continue degrading this evening as
scattered to numerous shra/tsra move over the region with the advn of
a cdfnt. IFR restrictions are possible in heavier convection, but
this wl be brief. A few showers wl also be possible later overnight
with the passage of the actual front and MVFR ceilings will likely
ensue thereafter.

Ceilings will then rise and break up tomorrow morning and afternoon
behind the frontal passage.

.Outlook...
Restrictions will be possible with the passage of several shortwaves
through the next week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1235 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

MDZ001-OHZ059-068-069-PAZ016-021>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ002>004-012-
021-509>514-281645-
Garrett-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Jefferson PA-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-
Fayette Ridges-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1235 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and the northern
panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057-058-PAZ007>009-013>015-020-WVZ001-281645-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-
Beaver-Hancock-
1235 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms may produce damaging winds this afternoon and evening.
The SPC has this area outlined in a Marginal Risk of severe weather,
meaning isolated severe storms are possible. The primary threat type
for this afternoon and evening is damaging wind, with a low
probability of hail.

Flooding is not out of the question should one area get hit with
repeated bouts of convective rainfall. The WPC has outlined this area
in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
549 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

PAZ007-008-013>015-022-272215-
Armstrong-Butler-Clarion-Venango-Lawrence-Mercer-
549 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT EASTERN MERCER...SOUTHERN VENANGO...
NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...NORTHERN BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLARION COUNTIES...

At 549 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Grove City,
moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oil City...                       Grove City...
Franklin...                       Sugarcreek...
Slippery Rock...                  Stoneboro...
Chicora...                        Seneca...
East Brady...                     Harrisville...
Parker...                         Polk...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 102 and 112.
  Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 20 and 52.

Torrential rainfall also is occurring with this storm and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4099 8016 4140 8013 4143 7956 4094 7957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 263DEG 23KT 4123 8000

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALTMAN                  40.98N  80.28W
07/27/2020                   LAWRENCE           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN SOUTHEAST OF NEW
            CASTLE, PA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2001202

SKH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
625 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

OHZ048-057-272300-
Coshocton-Muskingum-
625 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN COSHOCTON AND NORTHERN
MUSKINGUM COUNTIES...

At 624 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Frazeysburg,
or 14 miles northwest of Zanesville, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zanesville...                     Coshocton...
North Zanesville...               Dresden...
Frazeysburg...                    Conesville...
Norwich...                        Drake...
New Guilford...                   Cooperdale...
Dillon State Park...

Torrential rainfall also is occurring with this storm and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4023 8218 4024 8218 4024 8220 4029 8219
      4031 8180 3998 8178 4000 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 266DEG 16KT 4013 8212

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
633 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

OHZ057-272300-
Muskingum-
633 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MUSKINGUM COUNTY...

At 633 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Somerset,
moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zanesville...                     South Zanesville...
North Zanesville...               Philo...
Pleasant Grove...                 Gratiot...
Fultonham...                      Norwich...
Cannelville...                    Chandlersville...
Ruraldale...                      Bridgeville...

This includes  Interstate 70 in Ohio near mile marker 143, and
between mile
  markers 145 and 167.

Torrential rainfall also is occurring with this storm and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3995 8223 3995 8220 4000 8220 3999 8178
      3976 8178 3977 8207 3982 8208 3982 8217
      3991 8216 3991 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 249DEG 29KT 3981 8231