Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms have returned for tonight and early
tomorrow with a passing cold front. Slightly cooler temperature and
periodic rain chance can be expected for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm and moist advection is occurring ahead of a cold frontal
passage. This has aided CAPE values observed by satellite to exceed
1500 j/kg. Surface based instability will aid the development of
showers and thunderstorms coincident with forcing from the approach
of an initial shortwave. More widespread coverage of thunderstorms is
expected later this afternoon and evening when upper frontogenesis
and jet divergence accompany a cold frontal passage.

Isolated stronger storms may generate damaging wind gusts before
sunset. This, and any hail threat will be limited by very warm
temperature in the mid levels. Overall flow is sufficient for storm
progression to alleviate any flood threat outside of isolated
training areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the cold front propagates to the SE, some diurnal enhancement of
thunderstorms along the front is expected Tuesday afternoon in West
Virginia and Maryland counties. Further movement of the front south
accompanied by loss of insolation should move most convection out of
the region by Tuesday night. Temperature on Tuesday will be much more
comfortable after cold frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Seasonable temperature is expected Wednesday through much of the
work week as upper troughing generally persists and provides cooler
and drier air. Shortwaves within the trough accompanied by diurnal
heating will provide periodic rain chances. The best chances for
precipitation will be over the eastern ridges where orographic lift
will boost the chance for shower development.

A more widespread precipitation event is expected next weekend as
models indicate a more organized sfc low pressure will lift out of
the lower Mississippi River Valley toward the upper Ohio River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR cumulus is expected to continue degrading this evening as
scattered to numerous shra/tsra move over the region with the advn of
a cdfnt. IFR restrictions are possible in heavier convection, but
this wl be brief. A few showers wl also be possible later overnight
with the passage of the actual front and MVFR ceilings will likely
ensue thereafter.

Ceilings will then rise and break up tomorrow morning and afternoon
behind the frontal passage.

.Outlook...
Restrictions will be possible with the passage of several shortwaves
through the next week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1235 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

MDZ001-OHZ059-068-069-PAZ016-021>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ002>004-012-
021-509>514-281645-
Garrett-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Jefferson PA-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-
Fayette Ridges-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1235 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and the northern
panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057-058-PAZ007>009-013>015-020-WVZ001-281645-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-
Beaver-Hancock-
1235 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms may produce damaging winds this afternoon and evening.
The SPC has this area outlined in a Marginal Risk of severe weather,
meaning isolated severe storms are possible. The primary threat type
for this afternoon and evening is damaging wind, with a low
probability of hail.

Flooding is not out of the question should one area get hit with
repeated bouts of convective rainfall. The WPC has outlined this area
in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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