Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
917 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected through
tomorrow with the approach and passage of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Morning Update: No major changes have been made to this forecast
period.

Previous Discussion: A warm front will continue to drive northward
this morning, allowing for the bulk of the showers this afternoon to
be focused over the northern half of the forecast area. Another
shortwave will ride along the stalled front during the afternoon
hours, which will continue to support shower activity and provide the
risk for convection. Atmosphere remains capped as the warmer air
aloft surges northward. There will be an increases in atmospheric
buoyancy, but much of this will be relegated to the warm sector south
of the surface boundary. Models continue to display pockets of dry
air developing in the warm sector late this morning and through the
afternoon, allowing locales south of the front to experience an break
in rainfall and also a rise in surface temperatures. With this setup
a wide range of temperatures is on tap for today, with the far north
remaining in the 50s, while the southern border will approach 80
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface warm front will push north of the area tonight as the upper
level ridge experience one more brief amplification. This should
allow for a break in the activity across most, if not all, of the
area by late this evening and into the overnight hours. The occluded
surface front will approach western Ohio late tonight. More showers,
and possibly a thunderstorm, will develop ahead of the boundary and
push through the entire region Sunday morning. Atmosphere will dry
out quickly behind the boundary, allowing for some sunshine to make a
much needed return. The main concern for Sunday will be the threat
for strong winds behind the front. An impressive wind field will
develop on the southeastern flank of the 500 low. Mixing heights rise
quickly and instability aloft increases. This will allow for the
strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Current forecast
soundings are hinting that a wind advisory may be needed on Sunday.

Temperatures remain well above normal Saturday night and Sunday.

Increasing clouds and the risk for a passing shower on Monday with
the return of cold advection and northwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Building high pressure on Tuesday will promote drier conditions. The
next chance for rain will be Wednesday as a disturbance passes to
our south.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions largely north PIT in rain -w- embedded storms expected
to briefly clear up by late morning before another shortwave riding
along a stalled frontal boundary kicks off another round of
convection. South of PIT isold shra/tstms are possible as convective
temps are briefly reached. Persistent rain further N should result
in more stability and no tstms, as IFR/MVFR persists.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely to continue Sun mrng followed by gusty wind
with a Sun cdfnt.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
422 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

OHZ040-041-049-050-059-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076-
WVZ001>003-290830-
Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Belmont-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
422 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania,
northern West Virginia and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe storms are possible today. The main threat is
damaging wind gusts. Localized flooding is possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated severe storms are possible Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ039-048-057-058-068-290830-
Tuscarawas-Coshocton-Muskingum-Guernsey-Noble-
422 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered severe storms are possible today. The main threat is
damaging wind gusts. Localized flooding is possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated severe storms are possible Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-OHZ069-PAZ031-WVZ004-012-021-509>514-290830-
Garrett-Monroe-Greene-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
422 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and
the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe storms are possible today. The main threat is
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated severe storms are possible Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.