Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
350 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

The primary concern in the near term remains the period of
thunderstorms and potential for severe weather this evening. Our
focus then turns to gusty post frontal winds tonight, followed by
the potential for frost Thursday night and Friday night.

Low pressure over northwest Illinois this afternoon is forecast to
track east across Indiana this evening, dragging a strong cold
front across the forecast area through the evening. Strong forcing
along and ahead of the front in combination with a very unstable
atmosphere will result in the development of thunderstorms by late
afternoon and early evening. Latest CAM guidance suggests initial
development will be in the form of discrete cells or line segments
mainly across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The
activity should congeal into a squall line as it progresses east
southeast into southwest Indiana and western Kentucky through the
evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be
possible early on, with a transition to more of a damaging wind
threat as the activity becomes more linear and progresses across
the area. Given the steep mid level lapse rates, strong deep layer
shear, and substantial instability, very large hail and widespread
damaging winds are possible.

Most of the thunderstorm activity should be southeast of the area
by midnight, with a rapid decrease in cloud cover overnight. The
remainder of the short term period will be dry and much cooler as
Canadian high pressure builds southeast across the Plains into the
Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the front overnight, strong
gradient winds are possible, with sustained northwest winds of 15
to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph. After highs in the 80s today,
highs on Thursday are only expected to reach the upper 50s and
lower 60s, followed by middle to upper 50s on Friday. Lows
Thursday night are forecast in the middle 30s. At this time, it
appears as though winds should stay elevated enough to mitigate
much in the way of frost development Thursday night. Will need to
monitor frost potential Friday night over portions of southwest
Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile if clouds are slow enough to
increase ahead of the next weather system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Though light showers or sprinkles may occur Sat morning due to a
minor mid level disturbance, PoPs are expected to ramp up Sat night
and Sun as a low pressure system arrives from the southwestern
CONUS. There should be enough low level moisture advection ahead of
this system to produce nearly an inch of rainfall in the southern
Pennyrile region, and lesser amounts farther to the northwest. Tstms
are possible, especially during times of deepest moisture and lift
(late Sunday). There were some timing differences in the medium
range models with this system, but the best guess at this time is
that the nearly stacked system will be moving off toward the
northeast Sun night.

For the first half of next week, the PAH forecast area will be under
relatively cool cyclonic flow aloft and increasing surface pressure.
This pattern will tend to generate quite a bit of cloudiness at
times, but measurable pcpn does not appear likely at all. Perhaps
there may be some sprinkles as disturbances move through the flow
aloft. The NBM still tended to leave slight PoPs in the forecast Mon
and Tue, at least. This was blended with a small amount drier 12Z
ECMWF data. It may be cool enough for frost Wed morning (Day 7), if
clouds clear out enough.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Once MVFR ceilings clear western Kentucky this afternoon, VFR
conditions are expected through the majority of the forecast
period. The main exception is with the line of thunderstorms
expected to accompany the passage of a cold front this evening.
The storms will likely result in a reduction in ceilings and
visibilities to at least MVFR for an hour or two at each terminal,
along with the potential for strong to severe wind gusts and
large hail. South/southwest winds around 10 knots or less this
afternoon will shift to the northwest 10 to 20 knots with some
gusts pushing 30 knots tonight. Northwest winds will subside
somewhat on Thursday, but will remain gusty.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...RJP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 PM CDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             UNIONTOWN               37.62N 89.71W
04/08/2020  M1.00 INCH       PERRY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 PM CDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             SIKESTON                36.88N 89.58W
04/08/2020  M1.00 INCH       SCOTT              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
652 PM CDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             CAIRO                   37.00N 89.18W
04/08/2020  M0.70 INCH       ALEXANDER          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

DWS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>