Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
718 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

An upper level low over eastern Nebraska this afternoon will lift
ne into the upper Midwest overnight. Associated surface low
pressure will remain in phase. Thunderstorm activity is still
expected to ramp up later afternoon, as a pre-frontal trof moves
into southeast Missouri by 5 or 6 p.m. The trof will push east
through the evening, with scattered to numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be severe. 0-6 km
shear values should be in the 50-60 kt range, with MUCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. Damaging wind gusts seems to be the primary
hazard as a possible QLCS type system evolves, along with a
tornado or two, and possibly marginally severe hail. The front
will move east of the area around midnight, bringing an end to all
showers and storms. The rest of the night will be dry, with dry
and breezy conditions lasting into Sunday.

Given we are already in the upper 60s to lower 70s, we maintained
our inherited warmer highs than any blend option. MOS from the EC
and GFS seem more in line. We went with the same trend Sunday given
we will see sun and a west, southwest trajectory, that often times
can push us up over what most numbers show. Highs mid 60s north to
around 70 south. We also went with lower MOS dew points as we will
likely mix out fairly well.

Sky cover will increase late in the day Monday ahead of the next
storm system. The mid-upper level trof will emerge from the
southwest U.S. Monday, and strengthen while bringing Gulf
moisture northward. Rain is expected to reach SE Missouri Monday
evening and then spread through the rest of the CWA overnight.
Widespread showers continue through the day Tuesday. With the
center of the low now expected to pass well to our to the
south,removed lightning chances. Should be more of a
stratiform/overrunning type of event with rain amounts in the .5"
to 1" range over se MO/wrn KY. lesser amounts can be expected the
farther north one travels.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

A mainly dry and cool pattern is expected late next week. There is a
slight chance of showers associated with reinforcing shots of cool
air.

The main theme among the ensemble means of both the gfs and ecmwf
has been negative 500 mb height anomalies across the eastern half of
the USA. The models have trended stronger with these anomalies. 850
mb temps have also trended downward. Both ensemble means show 850 mb
temps within a few degrees of zero by next weekend.

Timing of the specific features driving the colder air southward
varies among the models. It appears weak ridging over our area on
Wednesday will be very temporary, but sufficient for dry and mild
weather. Highs will be near 60 Wednesday.

By next weekend, a 500 mb low is forecast to evolve somewhere along
the US/Canadian border east of the Rockies. In the process, a cold
front is likely to be shunted east across our region. This front is
the reason a slight chance pop will be introduced into the forecast
for Thursday through Friday. Temps will cool down behind the front,
with highs Friday and Saturday in the lower to mid 50s. Overnight
lows in the 30s could have some impact on agriculture. Collaboration
with ag weather experts will take place after this warm spell to
determine whether frost headlines would be needed at that point.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 718 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

A broken line of showers and tstms will continue across the region
this evening. Some of the tstms may be severe, with winds in excess
of 50 knots, and small hail possible. Cigs will be generally VFR,
with some scattered lower clouds, as the convection moves toward the
east. Intermittent IFR vsbys will be associated with the heavier
showers and tstms. Most, if not all, of the significant showers/
storms will be out of the region by 06Z, along with any cigs or vsby
restrictions. Sustained winds 15 to 20 knots will gradually veer to
the west-southwest gusting 25 to 30 knots, especially after daybreak
Sun.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
655 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-300000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
655 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening and
into the overnight. Damaging wind will be the main hazard, along
with a chance for a few tornadoes. Marginally severe hail is also
possible.

River flooding continues. Monitor statements and forecasts
for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Refer to the river flood warnings and statements for the latest
details on continued river flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters have been activated tonight.

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