Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
232 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Storms are ongoing across central and southeastern Oklahoma. Most of
the stronger storms are developing along the cold front that is
currently moving to the southeast through the OKC metro. With a
northeastward storm motion perpendicular to the front movement,
these strong storms that are developing along the cold front has
their inflow cut off rather quick, and results in decay soon after
their development. The main concern will be in southeastern
Oklahoma where the environment is more favorable for storm
development prior to the cold front arrival due to enhanced mid
level moisture advection and increased instability (MUCAPE > 2000
J/kg). There are some areas of storms trying to develop, however
the development looks fairly messy and unorganized on visible
satellite. With a lack of lower level shear, the main concern with
any storms that develop will be large hail.

Behind the front temperatures are plummeting, with current
temperatures in the upper 30s in northwest Oklahoma. Winds are
sustained over 25mph and gusting between 40-45 mph in many
locations. A wind advisory will continue until 10pm tonight. A
freeze warning is in place overnight for central, western, and
northern Oklahoma as well as Hardeman County in Texas due to the
late season freezing temperatures.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Not much change from the previous forecast and the next upcoming
chance of precipitation. Late Monday into Tuesday, a shortwave
trough will move through the area in conjunction with arriving
Pacific midlevel moisture. With the deep cold atmosphere in place
prior to it's arrival, there will be a chance of snow in parts of
northern, central, and western Oklahoma, with other areas
receiving mainly rain. Accumulations of snow should remain low due
to lingering warm ground temperatures, however model soundings
continue to indicate the possibility of heavy snow in areas which
may temporarily overcome the ground temperatures.

Far below average temperatures will continue Tuesday into Wednesday,
followed by a warmup and return to slightly below normal
temperatures by midweek. Another chance for rain and possible
thunderstorms returns towards the end of the week.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Rapid changes going on currently and will continue for the next
few hours at many sites as we have a strong cold front moving
through the area along with a chance for storms to impact
PNC/OKC/OUN through 20Z. North winds behind the front will gust
over 40kts through the afternoon at most sites and only gradually
diminish overnight. Some MVFR ceilings will occur as well this
afternoon and evening both ahead and behind the cold front, but
VFR conditions should occur at all sites by late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  32  48  34  46 /  10  10  50  30
Hobart OK         32  48  33  45 /  10  10  50  30
Wichita Falls TX  35  51  35  50 /  10   0  20  10
Gage OK           26  45  28  45 /  10  20  70  30
Ponca City OK     29  48  33  48 /  10  20  40  30
Durant OK         34  52  38  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday for
     OKZ004>030-033>038.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>042-
     044>046-050.

TX...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday for
     TXZ083.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1144 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near and ahead of
a cold front by early this afternoon across parts of central
Oklahoma. These storms will then move east and are expected to be
east of the area by early this evening.

There is a risk for a few of these storms to become severe this
afternoon, generally along and east of a line from Medford and
Enid, to El Reno and Chickasha, to Duncan Oklahoma. Large hail up
to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
main concerns. There is a very low risk for a tornado in areas
along and east of a line from Chandler to Pauls Valley to Ardmore
Oklahoma.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk area should prepare for severe weather operations this
afternoon.

.Wind...
A cold front moving across the area today will bring strong
north to northwest winds. Wind gusts of 40 to around 55 mph will
be possible in some areas. Wind speeds are expected to decrease
some this evening but still remain breezy overnight. A Wind
Advisory is in effect. Take steps to secure outdoor furniture and
equipment.

.Cold Weather...
The cold front will also bring much colder air into the region. At
or below freezing temperatures will be possible across northern,
western, and central Oklahoma overnight into Monday morning. A
Freeze Warning is in effect. Take steps to protect sensitive and
tender vegetation.

Breezy northerly winds and the cold temperatures will also lead to
even colder wind chills. Wind chill values in the teens will be
possible across portions of the area overnight into Monday
morning. If you have to be outside tonight, make sure you bundle
up.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Winter Weather...
Snow will be possible across portions of northern, western, and
central Oklahoma Monday night into Tuesday morning. Snow
accumulations could be possible in some locations, with the
highest potential in portions of western Oklahoma. Any
accumulations would likely occur on grassy or elevated surfaces
and would melt quickly due to the warm ground. No major impacts
are expected.

.Cold Weather...
At or below freezing temperatures will continue to be possible in
some areas Monday and Tuesday nights.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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