Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
546 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

Moisture advection and destabilization continues through the
region, in particular through western Oklahoma and western north
Texas. The airmass in western north Texas has been relatively
unmodified from the morning storms. These storms have not been as
widespread and have remained mostly south of the CWA, and is now
impacting the far southeast Oklahoma counties with rain,
lightning, and some small hail.

Out in western Texas and the Texas Panhandle, visible satellite
show cumulus towers developing and bubbling up. The environment in
the area is a bit concerning, with increasing CAPE throughout the
area. CAMs soundings indicate plenty of low level instability
(SBCAPE & MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg), and a curved hodograph with strong
enough low level shear (SFC-1km Shear > 20kts, SRH > 300 in
areas). The possibility is there for isolated supercells with all
hazards possible: large hail, severe winds, and a possible
tornado. There are a few failure modes to watch out for. If these
storms do not remain surface based, tornado chances will drop
however the hail and wind threat will remain. Also currently the
visible satellite looks a bit junky, which may limit the severity
if the storms continue to remain unorganized.

As these storms exit the area into Sunday, winds will increase
significantly as the strong cold front enters northwestern Oklahoma.
Winds will intensify to a sustained greater than 35mph, with gusts
possible in the 40-50mph range. With these high winds, a wind
advisory will be issued for most of western into central Oklahoma,
as well as parts of western north Texas.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

Behind the cold front, much colder air will result in significant
temperature drops in the region, with many areas dropping below
freezing throughout northern, central, and western Oklahoma. With it
being mid April and the chance for a late season freeze, a Freeze
warning will likely be issued as the event gets closer. Late Monday
into Tuesday, a shortwave trough moves through the area in
conjunction with some Pacific midlevel moisture, which will result
in widespread precipitation. With the deep cold airmass in place,
there is a chance for snow throughout northwestern Oklahoma and
parts of central Oklahoma. Accumulations will likely be limited by
ground temperatures, however model soundings indicate heavy snow may
be possible in some areas which might overcome the warm ground
temperatures.

Cold temperatures are expected to linger until Wednesday, where
temperatures will gradually warm up through the remainder of the
week. Next chance of precipitation appears to be late next week with
an approaching upper level cyclone.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

Fairly poor flight conditions are expected for many of the
terminals over the next 12-24 hours. Tonight, thunderstorms will
move over SW OK and north TX from west to east and then into
central OK during the overnight hours. These will be watched
closely for amendments as large hail, and even tornadoes may be
possible. MVFR cigs are expected on and off throughout the
forecast period. South winds will remain dominant until after
15-18Z tomorrow when a strong cold front moves through. Northwest
winds behind this cold front from around 18-21Z Sunday will be
very strong, with some gusts perhaps exceeding 45 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  75  31  49 /  50  30   0   0
Hobart OK         54  75  30  49 /  40  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  59  77  35  52 /  40  30   0   0
Gage OK           49  69  25  47 /  30  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     57  74  29  49 /  40  50   0   0
Durant OK         59  76  35  54 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ004>025-
     027>029-033>039-044-045.

TX...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...03

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