Severe Thunderstorm Warning 702, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Currently, showers are ongoing along an east-west corridor in
central Oklahoma along a low to mid level moisture maxima. These
showers will likely continue to develop along the moisture axis,
with shower development beginning to extend through southwestern
Oklahoma into western north Texas.

This afternoon, a cold front will continue to move southward into
central Oklahoma. Thunderstorm development along this cold front is
likely through central and southwestern Oklahoma as well as western
north Texas, mainly after 4pm. With the models not having a good
handle on the ongoing showers (in particular with occurrence and
placement), observations and mesoanalysis will be important with
this event. Current CAMs runs as well as mesoscale analysis indicate
widespread CAPE values >4000 J/kg, with bulk shear (0-6km) >30kts.
Along with the cold front forcing, this should be sufficient for the
initial possible development of a couple supercells. All hazards are
possible with these storms: large hail, strong winds, heavy
rainfall, and a chance for a tornado or two.

There is a high uncertainty with the tornado potential, in
particular if the storms are able to become surface based. Ongoing
cloud cover across central Oklahoma has suppressed the temperatures
(upper 80s/low 90s), whereas in northern parts of central Oklahoma
where there have been clear skies, surface temperatures are warmer
in the mid 90s. In addition, surface winds are fairly weak ahead of
the front, and 0-1km shear has been fairly low (<10kts). These
parameters will need to be monitored as the cold front moves
southward.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Additional precipitation chances continue through Tuesday and
Wednesday as multiple mid level shortwaves continue to move through
the region. Models still diverge on the movement and path of the
upper level cyclone and trough that will approach the region
Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF solution still stalls the
cyclone, however it becomes stationary further east in western
Texas, which could result in additional rain through parts of
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. The GFS remains
progressive, however the movement has slowed considerably, with the
cyclone not exiting the region until Friday. With these changes,
forecasted precipitation chances have increased through Friday, and
chances of precip have continued through Saturday.

With the high confidence in continual heavy rain in southern
Oklahoma, flooding will be an increasing concern for the region. A
flood watch will be issued for this area.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Poor flight conditions expected through Tue morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue on and off throughout the evening near
I-44. Then, after 09Z, some MVFR cigs will develop. Shower and
thunderstorms may also redevelop overnight for some of the
terminals. Winds will generally remain southerly for most
terminals but northerly for northern OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  84  69  82 /  50  80  70  70
Hobart OK         68  86  68  84 /  40  70  60  60
Wichita Falls TX  72  86  71  83 /  70  80  80  70
Gage OK           62  85  64  84 /  20  40  50  40
Ponca City OK     68  84  68  82 /  60  60  40  50
Durant OK         73  86  72  84 /  80  90  80  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ032-039>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
309 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-012015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
309 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers will continue to develop and move across portions of the
area this afternoon.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
into tonight. Severe storms will be possible, mainly near and
southeast of a line from Medford and Watonga, to Elk City
Oklahoma, beginning around mid-afternoon with a Slight risk
southeast of a line from Perry and El Reno, to near Frederick
Oklahoma, to Vernon and Knox City Texas. Large hail up to the
size of tennis balls and wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the main
concerns. A tornado or two could also be possible. The potential
for severe storms will begin to decrease late this evening but
thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday morning.

In addition to the severe potential, heavy rain will also be a
concern in some locations tonight, especially near and southeast
of I-44.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations this
afternoon and evening.

.Heat...
Triple digit heat index values are possible in parts of central
and southern Oklahoma and north Texas today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across at least
parts of the area throughout much of the week with the highest
chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Some strong to severe storms could
be possible but heavy rain that could lead to flooding in some
areas will also be a concern through at least the first half of
the week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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