Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

The first wave of precipitation is moving out, but the second wave
has already developed across central and southwestern Oklahoma
this morning. Precipitation will be off an on through today and
tonight as various shortwaves in the southwest flow aloft move
toward the Plains, with the larger scale trough moving to the
southern High Plains by 12Z/02. The highest rain chances and the
most widespread heavy rain is still expected to be across south
central and southeastern Oklahoma, but given the very heavy
rainfall that occurred over portions of central Oklahoma last
night and early this morning, it won't take as much rain to create
more flooding issues in these areas. Therefore, we have expanded
the Flood Watch to include central Oklahoma as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

Models are in better agreement with upper trough/low that is
expected to move into the southern Plains Wednesday and slowly move
across the region. Models show the upper low or at least some energy
remaining behind over eastern OK/TX towards the end of the week and
hang out over the region for a little bit. The highest and most
widespread rain chances are expected to continue Wednesday as the
upper system continues to move across the region. Rain chances will
decrease but continue over portions of the area through the rest of
the week. Heavy rain/flooding will be the main concern Wednesday,
especially for areas near and southeast of I-44 and those locations
that receive several inches of rain over the next few days.

Models show a long-wave trough over the eastern half or more of the
U.S. early next week which could bring a couple of cold fronts into
the region bringing another chance for rain and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

First of all, we have added a new TAF for Stillwater OK /KSWO/
beginning this morning.

Weatherwise, showers and thunderstorms will move through central
and southern Oklahoma this morning, with KOKC and KOUN on the
northern fringe of this initial area of showers and storms.
Scattered showers and storms will also be in the area of KSPS,
KSWO and perhaps KLAW early this morning. There will be rounds of
showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period at most
sites, although precipitation chances and coverage will be a bit
lower in northwest Oklahoma including KWWR. Localized flooding
will be possible with the heaviest rain. There are areas of MVFR
and even IFR ceilings this morning in the north in addition to the
lowered visibility and ceilings associated with the showers and
thunderstorms. MVFR and IFR ceilings will likely become more
widespread late tonight and early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  83  69  81  67 /  70  60  70  30
Hobart OK         86  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  20
Wichita Falls TX  86  69  83  67 /  80  70  70  30
Gage OK           87  63  84  62 /  50  60  40  10
Ponca City OK     83  67  83  65 /  50  50  40  10
Durant OK         85  71  82  69 /  90  70  90  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ024>032-039>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
354 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-020900-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
354 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Heavy Rain...
Heavy rain and flooding will continue to be a concern across
portions of the area through tonight. The highest potential for
flooding will be generally southeast of I-44 and in any locations
that have already received several inches of rain.

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across
the area today and tonight. Some of the storms could become strong
to severe this afternoon and evening, mainly across portions of
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Hail up to the size of
quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph would be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Friday and then
again early next week. The highest and most widespread chances
will be Wednesday into Thursday. The severe weather potential will
be low.

.Heavy Rain...
Heavy rain and flooding will continue to be a concern Wednesday
into early Thursday, especially in those locations that receive
several inches of rain early this week.

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