Severe Thunderstorm Warning 623, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
253 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OK
within a mid level moisture plume and along a baroclinic zone. Lift
along this zone should increase slightly through 21Z so expect
coverage to increase a bit by then. This activity will shift SSE
through the evening hours. Further east, additional moist convection
is present along a surface trough and will be mainly diurnally
driven. Later tonight into early Mon morning, scattered showers and
some thunderstorms are expected to shift slightly eastward into SW
OK but shouldn't make it much further as CAA increases across
central OK thanks to yet another, welcomed cold front. Both low and
high temps will be around 10 degrees below average tonight and Mon
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020

Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is possible
Monday night amid weak warm air advection cross western Oklahoma. Shower
activity is then expected to dissipate Tuesday morning. Models
then agree on renewed chances for showers and storms Tuesday night
as a weak disturbance moves over the area within northwest flow
aloft. At this time it appears the highest chances for
precipitation will be over the northeastern 2/3rd of the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and then shifting
eastward/weakening through the day Wednesday.

Upper ridging begins to expand over the area Thursday through the
weekend. This will shift precipitation chances further north and
east, with most of the area expected to be dry by the weekend as
temperatures climb to near or slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020

VFR conditions to continue.

Rather light north wind this afternoon with some shift to the
northeast/east tonight. There are some low chances for
thunderstorms across mainly western Oklahoma late today and
tonight, but chances remain too low to mention in the TAFs at this
point.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  84  63  82 /  10  10  30  20
Hobart OK         65  87  65  88 /  40  20  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  67  89  66  91 /  30  20  20  10
Gage OK           61  85  62  87 /  30  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     60  82  60  81 /   0  10   0   0
Durant OK         66  90  65  89 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
254 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-032000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
254 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated storms will be possible this afternoon across parts of
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. A few strong storms will
be capable of producing hail up to the size of nickels and wind
gusts exceeding 50 mph. Additional thunderstorms are expected over
eastern and southeastern Oklahoma through sunset. These storms
should remain relatively weak.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon to
the west of Oklahoma across the high plains of southeast Colorado
and New Mexico. This activity is then expected to move east and
southeast this evening and overnight and may impact parts of
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Severe weather is not
expected with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Periodic thunderstorm chances are expected Monday through much of
the upcoming week. The highest chances currently appear to be
Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Widespread severe storms are
unlikely, but a few strong to severe storms are possible through
the week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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