Severe Thunderstorm Warning 617, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020

Very pleasant conditions currently thanks to a modified polar
airmass. This will be reinforced through tonight and tomorrow as a
secondary surface high moves down the central plains. Some showers
and thunderstorms are being observed along this front across north
central KS, and could make their way into northern OK by tonight.
Higher PoPs are anticipated for tomorrow afternoon through
early Monday morning mainly across portions of western OK and
adjacent north TX within WAA and northerly flow regime on the
eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Any stronger storms, however,
should remain over the TX panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020

Most of the extended period will be dominated by northwest flow
aloft as an upper ridge holds over the southwestern US. This will
lead to a continuation of below normal temperatures and at least
occasional storm chances as disturbances track around the
periphery of the ridge. Precipitation chances appear highest
across western and northern Oklahoma closer to convection moving
off the higher terrain to our west, especially through midweek.

Later in the week, the upper ridge is forecast to expand eastward,
which should favor northern and eastern Oklahoma more for
thunderstorm activity. This will also lead to increasing
temperatures late in the week into the weekend, with highs returning
to the 90s for most of the area with 100s for portions of southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020

VFR conditions and north winds generally less than 12kt. are
expected through the daytime Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  87  64  83 /  10   0  10  10
Hobart OK         66  92  66  86 /   0  20  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  67  93  67  89 /   0   0  20  10
Gage OK           62  88  61  84 /   0  20  30  20
Ponca City OK     65  84  60  82 /  20   0   0  10
Durant OK         67  93  67  89 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in northern Oklahoma this
evening. Severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Periodic thunderstorm chances are expected Sunday through much of
next week. The greatest chances currently appear to be Tuesday
night and Wednesday night. Widespread severe storms are unlikely,
but a few strong to severe storms are possible through the week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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