Severe Thunderstorm Warning 554, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
737 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

As of 4PM, maximum temperatures at/near 107 deg F were observed
over western Oklahoma with widespread heat indices of 110 to 115
deg F. Per mesonet observations, the highest HI so far was 119 deg
F near the Red River, in Jefferson County. With temperatures
exceeding 100 deg F temperatures over western north Texas
tomorrow, a Heat Advisory has been issued for our TX counties
through 9PM tomorrow.

There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across north-
central Oklahoma this evening and tonight, extending as far south
as Kingfisher to Stillwater. Severe thunderstorms with large hail
up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80
mph are possible with storms in this area. Latest CAM runs
suggest a slightly later time frame for storm initiation over
north/northwest OK, with CI now anticipated in the 6-10PM time
frame. An extremely unstable air mass is present with mesoanalysis
MLCAPE values ranging from 4000 to 5000 J/kg over north-central OK
and 3000 to 4000 J/kg over northwest OK. The 18Z special
soundings at LMN and OUN indicate a very strong cap in place with
CIN values near -200 J/kg. However, with the approaching surface
boundary, change in topography over NW Oklahoma, and anticipated
cooling aloft (in associated with the shortwave), severe
thunderstorms are likely to develop late this evening over
northwest and north-central OK. Convection over central Oklahoma
seems less likely.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Upper level ridge over the SW CONUS will shift east and begin to
break down by midweek as a strong longwave trough tracks eastward
across Canada. The hottest day of the week appears to be Tuesday
with 850H temperatures prog'd to be up to 35C over western north
TX. Temperatures of 100 to 105 F are expected over much of the
area, with highs near 110 F over southwest OK and western north
TX. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms late each
day from Sunday through Thursday (over NW/N Oklahoma) in
association with several embedded shortwaves traveling along the
periphery of the ridge.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across northern Oklahoma.
Some of these storms will be severe with very strong winds and
hail. Have put the potential of strong winds and hail in the KPNC
and KWWR TAFs, and if this expansion south continues, may need to
amend KOKC and KOUN as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  95  73  96 /  40  20  10  10
Hobart OK         75 101  74 102 /  20  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  76 103  76 101 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           71  96  70 101 /  40  10  20   0
Ponca City OK     72  92  70  94 /  80  10  10  10
Durant OK         75 100  75  97 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-
     014>016-021-022-033-034.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
827 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-130130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
827 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Saturday evening and overnight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening
across north-central and central Oklahoma, generally northeast of
a line extending from Woodward to Chickasha to Ada to Atoka. This
Enhanced Risk includes Enid, Ponca City, Stillwater, Seminole and
the Oklahoma City metro area.

A Slight Risk extends farther west and south, generally northeast
of a line from Erick to Lawton to Marietta.

Hail to the size of baseballs and wind gusts of 80 mph will be
the main hazards in the Enhanced Risk area, while damaging wind
gusts of 60 to 80 mph and golfball size hail will be the primary
hazard in the slight risk area.

Severe storms will continued to develop and expand over northern
and central Oklahoma this evening. There storms may develop into a
storm complex and move southeast with strong winds and hail.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
northern Oklahoma should prepare for severe weather operations
this evening and perhaps overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are possible late Sunday and early Monday and again
late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Most of these would occur across
northern and central Oklahoma.

.Heat...
Very hot conditions will exist Monday and Tuesday.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions will occur Monday and Tuesday in
western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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