Severe Thunderstorm Warning 516, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
419 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

As of 4PM, maximum temperatures at/near 107 deg F were observed
over western Oklahoma with widespread heat indices of 110 to 115
deg F. Per mesonet observations, the highest HI so far was 119 deg
F near the Red River, in Jefferson County. With temperatures
exceeding 100 deg F temperatures over western north Texas
tomorrow, a Heat Advisory has been issued for our TX counties
through 9PM tomorrow.

There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across north-
central Oklahoma this evening and tonight, extending as far south
as Kingfisher to Stillwater. Severe thunderstorms with large hail
up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80
mph are possible with storms in this area. Latest CAM runs
suggest a slightly later time frame for storm initiation over
north/northwest OK, with CI now anticipated in the 6-10PM time
frame. An extremely unstable air mass is present with mesoanalysis
MLCAPE values ranging from 4000 to 5000 J/kg over north-central OK
and 3000 to 4000 J/kg over northwest OK. The 18Z special
soundings at LMN and OUN indicate a very strong cap in place with
CIN values near -200 J/kg. However, with the approaching surface
boundary, change in topography over NW Oklahoma, and anticipated
cooling aloft (in associated with the shortwave), severe
thunderstorms are likely to develop late this evening over
northwest and north-central OK. Convection over central Oklahoma
seems less likely.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Upper level ridge over the SW CONUS will shift east and begin to
break down by midweek as a strong longwave trough tracks eastward
across Canada. The hottest day of the week appears to be Tuesday
with 850H temperatures prog'd to be up to 35C over western north
TX. Temperatures of 100 to 105 F are expected over much of the
area, with highs near 110 F over southwest OK and western north
TX. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms late each
day from Sunday through Thursday (over NW/N Oklahoma) in
association with several embedded shortwaves traveling along the
periphery of the ridge.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Primarily VFR forecast across the region outside of TSRA which
will be mainly confined to northern Oklahoma terminals after 00Z.
This activity could make it into central Oklahoma toward and after
06Z so will keep PROB30 going at KOKC and KOUN. Eastern to
northerly wind shift behind weak cold front/outflow for late
tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  74  94  73 /  20  40  20  10
Hobart OK        105  75 100  74 /  10  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX 104  76 102  76 /   0  10  10  10
Gage OK          105  71  96  70 /  20  40  10  20
Ponca City OK     97  72  91  70 /  40  80  10  10
Durant OK         99  75  99  75 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-
     014>016-021-022-033-034.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Sunday for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
405 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-122115-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
405 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon through the evening across north-central Oklahoma,
generally north of a line extending from Alva, to Hennessey, to
Cushing. This includes Enid, Ponca City and Stillwater. A Slight
Risk extends farther west and south, including Woodward, Hinton,
the OKC metro, Seminole, Ada, and Coalgate. Even farther south, a
Marginal Risk covers the rest of Oklahoma and a portion of north
Texas near the Red River.

Hail to the size of baseballs and wind gusts of 80 mph will be
the main hazards in the Enhanced Risk area, while damaging wind
gusts of 60 to 80 mph and golfball size hail will be the primary
hazard elsewhere.

Severe storms are expected to develop over southwest Kansas or
northwest Oklahoma early this evening, then spread east and south
into the body of Oklahoma through the evening hours.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
northern Oklahoma should prepare for severe weather operations
this evening and perhaps overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are possible late Sunday and early Monday and again
late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Most of these would occur across
northern and central Oklahoma.

.Heat...
Very hot conditions will exist Monday and Tuesday.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions will occur Monday and Tuesday in
western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             LAHOMA                  36.39N 98.09W
07/11/2020  E1.75 INCH       GARFIELD           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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