Severe Thunderstorm Warning 429, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
451 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Scattered storms this morning will persist and slowly move east
across southern Oklahoma this morning and be capable of producing
widely scattered severe storms and locally heavy rainfall. Storms
in northwest Oklahoma may also persist for a while this morning,
but these storms are expected to weaken more quickly.

Although there is some potential for severe weather this morning,
the main risk will be late this afternoon and this evening as
storms develop and move into northern Oklahoma and spread south
and southeast. Atmospheric parameters will be in place to support
severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. Low-
level shear improves as low-level jet develops with 1 km shear
increasing to 30 to 40 knots by 03Z. The day one outlook by the
SPC covers the potential evolution well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing
across portions of the area Monday morning. Showers and storms will
remain possible Monday afternoon but chances will increase again
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some strong to severe storms will
also be possible.

NW flow aloft will continue to affect the area through at least the
middle part of the week. Showers and storms will be possible during
this time although where, when, if will be somewhat dependent on the
previous day/night's convection and the affects on the region.
However, in general, storms are expected to develop in the High
Plains due to upslope flow and at least approach and possibly move
into portions of the fa during the evening/overnight period.
Additional storms could develop in the fa during the afternoon/early
evening hours near any boundaries over the fa.

Late in the week, models begin to shift the upper weather pattern
with a trough moving across the central U.S. which will continue to
bring a chance for showers/storms to portions of the fa.

With the NW flow, clouds, and rain, temperatures are still expected
to remain around or below average for this time of year into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Showers/storms will affect some TAF sites this morning. Additional
storms are expected to develop later this afternoon and move
across parts of the area this evening and overnight. Some of the
storms could produce strong and variable winds. MVFR/VFR ceilings
are expected. Winds will shift with any outflow boundaries.
Otherwise, winds will generally be from the S and SE this TAF
period. TAFs will be adjusted to current trends before being sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  70  88  69 /  30  60  20  80
Hobart OK         95  72  94  67 /  10  30  10  70
Wichita Falls TX  95  74  95  71 /  30  20  10  50
Gage OK           94  66  90  64 /  30  30  10  70
Ponca City OK     92  69  88  66 /  10  70  30  60
Durant OK         89  72  91  70 /  60  40  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-220900-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe storms are possible across the area with an Enhanced risk
across portions of northern and central Oklahoma.

Location...
The Enhanced risk is generally the area north of I-40. A Slight
risk is the area north of a line from Altus and Duncan, to Sulphur
and Coalgate Oklahoma.

Timing...
Some severe storms will be possible through 10 AM, mainly across
portions of southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Another round of
severe storms will be possible across the area late this afternoon
into tonight.

Impacts...
Up to ping pong ball size hail and wind gusts to 65 mph possible
during the morning hours.

Later today, up to baseball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph
will be the main concerns. There is also a low chance for a
tornado, mainly across portions of northwest Oklahoma.

Locally heavy rain will also be a concern.

Discussion...
Elevated thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across
portions of the area this morning. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe. Storms are expected to decrease late this
morning and early afternoon.

Additional storms are expected to develop late this afternoon and
early evening, initially affecting portions of northern Oklahoma.
The storms will then likely develop into one or more lines that
continue to move across the area this evening and overnight.
Severe storms will be possible with large hail and strong wind
gusts the main concerns initially. Damaging winds are then
expected to become even more of a concern this evening with the
transition to one or more lines of storms.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
area should prepare for severe weather operations late this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...

Storms will be possible during the day Monday but higher chances
will be Monday evening and night. Strong to severe storms will be
possible once again with a Slight risk across much of the area.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Locally
heavy rain will also be possible.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across at least
portions of the area through the rest of the week. Some strong to
severe storms could be possible. However, what occurs on one day
could be somewhat dependent on what occurred the previous day and
night and the impact on the airmass.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
459 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

OKZ023-211030-
Caddo OK-
459 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Caddo County Until 530 AM
CDT...

AT 457 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Albert, moving
east at 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3520 9849 3533 9850 3536 9827 3518 9828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0957Z 267DEG 4KT 3527 9843

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
527 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

TXZ090-211100-
Clay TX-
527 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR east central Clay County Until
600 AM CDT...

AT 525 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Henrietta,
moving east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3370 9821 3388 9822 3392 9796 3391 9796
      3391 9798 3367 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 1025Z 268DEG 14KT 3380 9813

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
528 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

OKZ047-051-211100-
Johnston OK-Marshall OK-
528 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Johnston and
northwestern Marshall Counties Until 600 AM CDT...

AT 525 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mannsville,
moving northeast at 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3404 9694 3425 9692 3423 9673 3403 9670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1025Z 242DEG 3KT 3414 9686

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
530 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

OKZ018-019-024-025-211100-
Kingfisher OK-Oklahoma OK-Logan OK-Canadian OK-
530 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southern Kingfisher...
northwestern Oklahoma...southwestern Logan and northeastern Canadian
Counties Until 600 AM CDT...

AT 525 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
8 miles west of Crescent to 4 miles west of Kingfisher, moving
southeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3575 9736 3554 9795 3586 9813 3602 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1025Z 324DEG 20KT 3595 9775 3586 9802

..speg.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
605 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

OKZ041-046-047-051-211130-
Carter OK-Johnston OK-Marshall OK-Murray OK-
605 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Carter...western
Johnston...Marshall and southeastern Murray Counties Until 630 AM
CDT...

AT 601 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
4 miles west of Mill Creek to near Lebanon, moving east at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3393 9690 3396 9692 3396 9693 3401 9693
      3402 9697 3407 9697 3407 9700 3444 9706
      3449 9661 3401 9658 3402 9660 3400 9662
      3397 9660 3397 9658 3396 9658 3395 9660
      3391 9658
TIME...MOT...LOC 1101Z 267DEG 17KT 3440 9690 3400 9687

..speg.