Severe Thunderstorm Warning 424, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
314 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday morning)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

POPS were diminished for today, especially in southeastern
Oklahoma in the subsidence region of the MCV moving into SE OK
this afternoon. Other than isolated showers, thunder and rain
isn't expected until late this evening and early Sunday when
moderate warm advection is expected to form from western TX into
southwestern into a region of mass convergence. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected from there toward central Oklahoma
before sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing
across portions of the area Monday morning. Showers and storms will
remain possible Monday afternoon but chances will increase again
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some strong to severe storms will
also be possible.

NW flow aloft will continue to affect the area through at least the
middle part of the week. Showers and storms will be possible during
this time although where, when, if will be somewhat dependent on the
previous day/night's convection and the affects on the region.
However, in general, storms are expected to develop in the High
Plains due to upslope flow and at least approach and possibly move
into portions of the fa during the evening/overnight period.
Additional storms could develop in the fa during the afternoon/early
evening hours near any boundaries over the fa.

Late in the week, models begin to shift the upper weather pattern
with a trough moving across the central U.S. which will continue to
bring a chance for showers/storms to portions of the fa.

With the NW flow, clouds, and rain, temperatures are still expected
to remain around or below average for this time of year into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop overnight mainly south of I-40. Another area where storms
may move into will be NW OK near WWR around 07Z but confidence is
lower there, as storms moving out of KS may weaken before making
it that far south. Since it appears coverage should remain below
50% for most of the night, have only included VCTS at many of the
terminals. LAW and SPS may be amended later to include a tempo for
TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  70  88  69 /  30  60  20  80
Hobart OK         95  72  94  67 /  10  30  10  70
Wichita Falls TX  95  74  95  71 /  30  20  10  50
Gage OK           94  66  90  64 /  30  30  10  70
Ponca City OK     92  69  88  66 /  10  70  30  60
Durant OK         89  72  91  70 /  60  40  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-220900-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe storms are possible across the area with an Enhanced risk
across portions of northern and central Oklahoma.

Location...
The Enhanced risk is generally the area north of I-40. A Slight
risk is the area north of a line from Altus and Duncan, to Sulphur
and Coalgate Oklahoma.

Timing...
Some severe storms will be possible through 10 AM, mainly across
portions of southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Another round of
severe storms will be possible across the area late this afternoon
into tonight.

Impacts...
Up to ping pong ball size hail and wind gusts to 65 mph possible
during the morning hours.

Later today, up to baseball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph
will be the main concerns. There is also a low chance for a
tornado, mainly across portions of northwest Oklahoma.

Locally heavy rain will also be a concern.

Discussion...
Elevated thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across
portions of the area this morning. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe. Storms are expected to decrease late this
morning and early afternoon.

Additional storms are expected to develop late this afternoon and
early evening, initially affecting portions of northern Oklahoma.
The storms will then likely develop into one or more lines that
continue to move across the area this evening and overnight.
Severe storms will be possible with large hail and strong wind
gusts the main concerns initially. Damaging winds are then
expected to become even more of a concern this evening with the
transition to one or more lines of storms.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
area should prepare for severe weather operations late this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...

Storms will be possible during the day Monday but higher chances
will be Monday evening and night. Strong to severe storms will be
possible once again with a Slight risk across much of the area.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Locally
heavy rain will also be possible.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across at least
portions of the area through the rest of the week. Some strong to
severe storms could be possible. However, what occurs on one day
could be somewhat dependent on what occurred the previous day and
night and the impact on the airmass.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
239 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

OKZ045-210815-
Jefferson OK-
239 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR south central Jefferson County
Until 315 AM CDT...

AT 235 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northeast of
Terral, moving east at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3387 9792 3395 9796 3399 9795 3400 9796
      3406 9778 3394 9774 3393 9776 3391 9776
      3392 9778 3389 9778 3389 9779 3390 9780
      3388 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0735Z 250DEG 7KT 3394 9789

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
309 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

OKZ023-210845-
Caddo OK-
309 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Caddo County Until
345 AM CDT...

AT 307 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Anadarko,
moving east at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3513 9836 3517 9809 3491 9809 3495 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0807Z 269DEG 9KT 3504 9827

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
317 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

OKZ010-011-210845-
Major OK-Woodward OK-
317 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Major and east
central Woodward Counties Until 345 AM CDT...

AT 317 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
8 miles north of Quinlan to 10 miles southwest of Alabaster Caverns
State Park, moving southeast at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3655 9896 3651 9896 3651 9893 3633 9881
      3635 9925 3659 9938 3660 9930 3664 9929
      3665 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0817Z 332DEG 29KT 3658 9905 3659 9929

..speg.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
337 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 AM     HAIL             1 W ANADARKO            35.06N 98.26W
06/21/2020  E1.75 INCH       CADDO              OK   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
357 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 AM     HAIL             1 W ANADARKO            35.06N 98.26W
06/21/2020  E1.75 INCH       CADDO              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTERNETWORK REPORT

&&