River Flood Warning 28, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
653 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Showers/thunderstorms are likely to develop across southwestern OK
and western north TX this afternoon and evening a mid-level trough
and surface boundary. Latest radar imagery shows a few echoes with
a few cloud flashes already developing over Beckham County in
western OK and tracking quickly east-southeastward at about 40
mph. With a moderately unstable atmosphere in place, little to no
CIN, storms may become severe later this afternoon and evening.
Large hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall are possible with any storms that develop. A few
thunderstorms are also possible this evening over northern
Oklahoma. Precipitation appears likely, generally south of I-40,
through at least 10PM with chances diminishing after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

In the wake of Friday's storm system, we should see a break from
rain this weekend with below normal temperatures.

Models (both deterministic and ensemble) are trending further west
with their possible MCS Sunday night into Monday, affecting mainly
the panhandles and parts of western Oklahoma into north Texas.
Latest NBM guidance seems to represent this fairly well.

The most recent WPC cluster analysis is coming in weaker and slower
with the building of the upper level ridge next week. This is
consistent with deterministic models which keep us in an active
northwest flow pattern through much of next week.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Showers and storms will continue to develop across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas through the evening, slowly making their
way southeast. Damaging winds will be possible with these storms.
Outside of this convection, breezy northerly winds will prevail.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  82  66  84 /  40  30   0   0
Hobart OK         69  87  64  89 /  30  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  88  66  89 /  60  10   0   0
Gage OK           64  85  60  88 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  81  64  83 /  60  40   0   0
Durant OK         73  88  68  89 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-311715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon and
tonight (mainly after 3pm) across portions of central and
southern Oklahoma, and western north Texas. The main threats will
be damaging winds up to 65 mph, hail to the size of ping pong
balls, and locally heavy rainfall. Showers and storms could linger
across parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas into early
Friday morning.

A secondary area of storms will be possible across portions of
northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. A marginal risk is
in place for these storms.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will still be affecting the area Friday morning and
persist through Friday afternoon. Instability will be lower, so
the potential of severe weather is low.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Sunday night through Monday
night and then again on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and
follow our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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