Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
242 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Cold front now pushing toward the MO Bootheel at this hour. Good
pressure rises noted behind the boundary. Thus, the front is on the
way and should reach the area this evening. instability levels
continue to ramp up in advance of this evenings up coming forcing
window. Shear values are decent and this sets the stage for a few
strong storms late this afternoon and into early evening. Main
threat is high winds and some hail, to the west of I-65. Rainfall
amounts look like a half inch on average with 1 inch amounts with
the stronger storms.

Otw, sct showers to persist behind the boundary late tonight as some
weak upper level energy swings into play. Low shower chances will
continue into Saturday as well. A weak southerly component will
reside within the upper level flow on into Sunday. Additionally,
southerly 850 mb flow will set the stage for some weak overrunning
and some isentropic lift. Therefore, look for low shower chances and
some patchy drizzle on Sunday.

Temperature wise, low diurnal swings upcoming with the moist airmass
in place behind tonights cold front. Highs will be below normal with
lows above normal.

In the ext fcst, strong upper low to move across TX by mid week.
Subtropical jet to the south and east of the low will strengthen and
keep the mid state in a rather unsettled pattern. Low shower
chances will be in play through mid week. By the end of the week,
a strong surface low will move northward from the Gulf and track
across TN on Thu. Instability will reside east of the low track,
so depending on the track, we will see more or less tstm activity.
At any rate, it looks like a fairly potent system. Once the low
pulls off to the east, colder air will work in by next weekend.
However, looks like temperatures through the extended will be
above normal through at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A cold extending from a low near Hougton Lake...MI...down through
IN...IL....and approaching TN. This front will continue to
approach middle TN through this afternoon and evening hours.
Precipitation is out ahead and along the front. Already seeing
prefrontal storms that will pulse up and down. VFR conditions
expected until the main front occurs. Even with expecting
VFR...any storm that develops over a TAF sites MVFR/IFR
conditions could occur. Once the front moves in CIGs will come to
down to MVFR and perhaps IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      54  57  51  65  55 /  60  20  20  10  10
Clarksville    49  54  47  64  51 /  70  20  10  10  20
Crossville     57  61  52  65  55 /  70  30  20  10  10
Columbia       55  59  52  68  55 /  60  20  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   57  59  53  69  56 /  70  30  20  10  10
Waverly        50  55  48  65  53 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
529 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-241030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
529 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Some strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon
into early evening for locations around and west of I-65. Main
concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorms that do develop will
be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

06

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