Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
242 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Cold front now pushing toward the MO Bootheel at this hour. Good
pressure rises noted behind the boundary. Thus, the front is on the
way and should reach the area this evening. instability levels
continue to ramp up in advance of this evenings up coming forcing
window. Shear values are decent and this sets the stage for a few
strong storms late this afternoon and into early evening. Main
threat is high winds and some hail, to the west of I-65. Rainfall
amounts look like a half inch on average with 1 inch amounts with
the stronger storms.

Otw, sct showers to persist behind the boundary late tonight as some
weak upper level energy swings into play. Low shower chances will
continue into Saturday as well. A weak southerly component will
reside within the upper level flow on into Sunday. Additionally,
southerly 850 mb flow will set the stage for some weak overrunning
and some isentropic lift. Therefore, look for low shower chances and
some patchy drizzle on Sunday.

Temperature wise, low diurnal swings upcoming with the moist airmass
in place behind tonights cold front. Highs will be below normal with
lows above normal.

In the ext fcst, strong upper low to move across TX by mid week.
Subtropical jet to the south and east of the low will strengthen and
keep the mid state in a rather unsettled pattern. Low shower
chances will be in play through mid week. By the end of the week,
a strong surface low will move northward from the Gulf and track
across TN on Thu. Instability will reside east of the low track,
so depending on the track, we will see more or less tstm activity.
At any rate, it looks like a fairly potent system. Once the low
pulls off to the east, colder air will work in by next weekend.
However, looks like temperatures through the extended will be
above normal through at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A cold extending from a low near Hougton Lake...MI...down through
IN...IL....and approaching TN. This front will continue to
approach middle TN through this afternoon and evening hours.
Precipitation is out ahead and along the front. Already seeing
prefrontal storms that will pulse up and down. VFR conditions
expected until the main front occurs. Even with expecting
VFR...any storm that develops over a TAF sites MVFR/IFR
conditions could occur. Once the front moves in CIGs will come to
down to MVFR and perhaps IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      54  57  51  65  55 /  60  20  20  10  10
Clarksville    49  54  47  64  51 /  70  20  10  10  20
Crossville     57  61  52  65  55 /  70  30  20  10  10
Columbia       55  59  52  68  55 /  60  20  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   57  59  53  69  56 /  70  30  20  10  10
Waverly        50  55  48  65  53 /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
529 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-241030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
529 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Some strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon
into early evening for locations around and west of I-65. Main
concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorms that do develop will
be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

06

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
432 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

TNZ008-009-232215-
Sumner TN-Macon TN-
432 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SUMNER AND
NORTHWESTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 431 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westmoreland, or 11 miles northeast of Gallatin, moving northeast at
25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Westmoreland, Oak Grove and Bethpage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8588 3648 8621 3649 8624 3647 8624
      3643 8634 3652 8657 3665 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 246DEG 21KT 3650 8632

Adcock/7

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
444 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

TNZ006-007-025-026-232230-
Robertson TN-Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-
444 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...CHEATHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 444 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Ashland City, moving east at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland City, Coopertown, Pleasant View and Cheatham Dam.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 19 and 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 8698 3632 8693 3628 8695 3627 8696
      3625 8697 3625 8698 3618 8730 3635 8739
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 254DEG 11KT 3630 8726

Adcock/7

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
447 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

TNZ024-025-232230-
Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-
447 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DICKSON AND NORTHEASTERN
HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
McEwen, or 7 miles east of Waverly, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Waverly, McEwen, Burns, Charlotte and Vanleer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 8777 3620 8765 3620 8759 3618 8757
      3623 8753 3627 8740 3607 8730 3599 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 260DEG 24KT 3611 8764

Adcock/7