River Flood Advisory 22, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
219 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Cloudiness hanging on this afternoon and it looks as though little
clearing can be expected for tonight. Temperatures have held in the
upper 40s to lower 50s, a little warmer across the Plateau. The
boundary that pushed through yesterday is now a good deal to our
south. However, the prevailing sfc high is rather weak and a rather
deep southerly mid and upper level wind component remains. This is all setting the stage for a somewhat active showery type of pattern for this upcoming week.

The aforementioned boundary will begin to work back to the north as a
warm front on Monday. Moisture will then reach our area, from se to
nw, on Monday nt and continue into Tuesday. In fact, a few tstms
will be possible as temperatures become rather mild again. Rainfall
amounts will not be overly impressive but though Tuesday night, up
to 1/4 to 1/2 inch will be possible in our se, with lesser amounts
nw.

For the near term temps, we will start out above normal and it will
get even milder by Tuesday. At that time, values will run a good 20
degrees or so above normal.

In the ext fcst, the subtropical jet will remain active through the
end of the week. Frontal boundaries will meander around and close to
the mid state area as these feature remain parallel to the upper
flow. The highest chances for rainfall will be Friday and Saturday
as a warm front works northward on Friday with the main cold frontal
boundary following on Saturday. There appears to be enough
progressiveness with that cold front to prevent any flooding
concerns. Otw, turning colder on Sunday but no frozen precip on that
back edge will be included.

For the ext temps, very mild through Saturday with 60s for highs.
Turning colder and perhaps a little below seasonal levels by Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Cloud deck is slowly eroding away late this morning, and may allow
for VFR cigs in the late afternoon and evening. Before that, MVFR
cigs are likely. After a brief evening and early overnight at VFR,
MVFR cigs look to return just before sunrise and continue through
the morning. VFR cigs again possible Monday afternoon. Winds will
be light around or below 5 knots and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      42  59  53  65  52 /  10  10  60  60  50
Clarksville    36  57  49  65  48 /  10  10  30  30  30
Crossville     44  60  55  64  53 /  10  30  70  80  60
Columbia       41  61  54  67  55 /  10  20  60  60  50
Lawrenceburg   42  63  56  68  56 /  10  20  70  70  60
Waverly        38  58  50  64  51 /  10  10  50  60  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Barnwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
517 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-131100-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
517 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few area rivers and creeks will remain elevated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A few area rivers and creeks will remain elevated through
mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

JB Wright