River Flood Advisory 18, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
527 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Back edge of the precipitation shield now extends from CKV southward
through Waynesboro. The main line of tstms is now working across the
Plateau. The tornado watch remains in effect for our far
southeastern counties through 8 pm. Although, it appears that that
watch will likely be cancelled once the line clears our area, in a
couple of hours from now. Still looking at isol thunder to the west
of the main line. Helicity values still remain elevated in that se
corner, so we are not out of the woods just yet.

It looks as though the convection should end across our Plateau
around 8 pm or so. Will definitely utilize the option to include a
pre first period giving the ramping down nature of the activity.

Otw, clouds to persist overnight. As for the wind advisory, a few of
the models still lean toward some subsidence as the rain shuts off.
this could mix down some higher winds again late this afternoon.
Thus, the plan will be to allow the wind advisory to continue
through 00Z as planned.

Moving on, the upcoming replacement airmass will be colder than it
has been. However, we are still looking at above normal
temperatures. Southerly upper level component will remain active and
thus, shower activity will lift back to the north by Monday night.
Additionally, we will have enough instability for tstm inclusion.
The active weather will stick around through Wednesday when a
stronger cold front approaches. The good news is that qpf amounts
dont look to be too worrisome. Maybe a half inch or so from Mon nt
through Wed.

High temps by late in the week will fall to near normal levels. This
will be short lived however as a frontal boundary takes aim on the
mid state by saturday with the sfc energy being focused well to our
north.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A thin line of showers moving across Middle TN at issuance could
cause brief gusty winds to 35 kts at KBNA/KMQY in the next hour.

Otherwise, look for mainly MVFR conditions overnight with
possibly some IFR around sunrise. Clouds should start to clear out
by late morning and while I haven't indicated this in this set of
TAFs, will wait for this evening's suite of models to come in.

Winds will remain breezy until around midnight when 5-10 kts will
become more common. Wind shift will also occur overnight as the
actual front pushes through Middle TN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Unger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
414 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-122215-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
414 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rises on areas waterways are likely as today's rainfall runs off
into rivers and streams, however no significant flooding is
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
519 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

TNZ007-008-026-027-120000-
Robertson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-Sumner TN-
519 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...SUMNER...
NORTHEASTERN CHEATHAM AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CST...

At 519 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coopertown, or 9 miles north of Ashland City, moving northeast at 50
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Springfield, Ashland City, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville,
White House, Millersville, Greenbrier, Coopertown, Ridgetop, Cross
Plains, Portland, Joelton, Pleasant View, Orlinda, Adams, Cedar Hill,
Mitchellville, Bledsoe Creek State Park and Cottontown.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 95 and 121.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 18 and 41.

LAT...LON 3665 8633 3639 8629 3620 8710 3645 8713
      3646 8712 3646 8713 3652 8711 3655 8712
      3656 8714 3665 8694 3665 8659 3663 8656
      3665 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 242DEG 42KT 3641 8703

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
536 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

TNZ027-028-059-062-120015-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-
536 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAVIDSON...NORTHWESTERN
RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON AND WESTERN WILSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM CST...

At 536 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Franklin, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Lebanon, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne, Mount Juliet,
Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Thompson's Station,
Walterhill, Rural Hill, Bellevue, Antioch, Belinda City, Berry Hill,
Cedars Of Lebanon State Park, Percy Priest Lake and Gladeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 212 and 239.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 60 and 82.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 52 and 71.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 25 and 30, and between mile
markers 58 and 76.

LAT...LON 3598 8626 3579 8696 3609 8694 3631 8627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 244DEG 45KT 3596 8688

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
612 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

TNZ028-030-062-064-120100-
Rutherford TN-Wilson TN-De Kalb TN-Smith TN-
612 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SMITH...NORTHWESTERN DE
KALB...NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 700
PM CST...

At 611 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walterhill, or 12 miles southwest of Lebanon, moving east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Smyrna, Mount Juliet, Watertown, Gordonsville, Walterhill,
Belinda City, Hickman, South Carthage, Alexandria, Dowelltown,
Liberty, Tuckers Crossroads, Cedars Of Lebanon State Park, Center
Hill Lake, Edgar Evans State Park and Gladeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 228 and 266.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 58 and 76.

LAT...LON 3594 8648 3620 8648 3624 8582 3600 8579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 255DEG 44KT 3605 8642

27

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
735 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSSVILLE              35.95N  85.04W
01/11/2020                   CUMBERLAND         TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORNER OF ROOF LIFTED OFF COMMERCIAL BUILDING. TREES
            AND POWERLINES DOWN IN AREA, TOO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000023

UNGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
750 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

TNZ011-032>034-066-120230-
Putnam TN-Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-Overton TN-Pickett TN-
750 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OVERTON...PICKETT...
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM AND FENTRESS COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CST...

At 749 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Albany to near Crossville. Movement was
east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Crossville, Jamestown, Byrdstown, Fairfield Glade, Monterey, Crab
Orchard, Allardt, Pleasant Hill, Grimsley, Slate Springs, Pall Mall,
Clarkrange, Crawford and Pickett State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 301 and 327, near
mile marker 336, and between mile markers 339 and 340.

LAT...LON 3637 8470 3638 8472 3634 8474 3633 8477
      3630 8480 3628 8488 3621 8491 3615 8491
      3608 8483 3609 8480 3605 8479 3600 8472
      3591 8468 3589 8471 3597 8526 3599 8528
      3662 8526 3660 8479 3640 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 265DEG 40KT 3664 8510 3598 8510

27