Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Brought in PoPs across the northern Plateau, NE TN, and SW VA
quicker this morning as well as increased cloud cover from N to S
quicker. Current radar shows a weakening band of convection over
SE KY sinking southward. Lightning is decreasing with this
activity, but CAMS are not initializing it well, and it is
currently much farther S than depicted. Believe that outflow from
this weakening convection will generate new activity from the
northern Plateau east and northeastward by late morning as surface
heating warms temps to near 80 and Td's continue to gradually
creep up to near 60 ahead of the incoming frontal boundary. Deep
layer shear continues to be very marginal at 25-30 kts, but
cooling aloft associated with the approaching upper low from the
OH Valley will bring wet bulb zero heights down to 8500-9000 ft
and allow MLCAPE to build to 1500-2200 J/Kg as surface temps warm
and low-level moisture increases. This will yield fairly
widespread coverage of convection through the afternoon with
isolated severe hail up to quarter size and damaging winds to 60
mph as thermodynamics drive this activity. Increased PoPs to
likely/categorical through the afternoon with the greatest
coverage expected over the east half of the region. The SPC Day 1
Marginal risk seems reasonable for today. Areas that see multiple
episodes of convection could also see localized flooding since
PWATs increase to 1.2 to 1.4 inches leading to heavy rain within
the cores, so WPC has included a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall from far E TN through SW VA. High temps remain on track
for today.

RG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered thunderstorms will impact all sites off and on through
the afternoon leading to brief periods of MVFR or lower flight
conditions. VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms. This
activity will thin out after 00Z, but widely scattered showers
will impact TRI at times through the night leading to brief
periods of MVFR, so included PROB30's for this potential. The
other issue is fog. Areas of fog could impact TYS and TRI between
08 and 12Z leading to MVFR or lower conditions, but this is low
confidence. VFR will quickly return by mid morning with scattered thunderstorms
developing again during the morning leading to brief MVFR.

RG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  83  60  82  61 /  20  20  10  30  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  80  58  80  59 /  20  40  20  30  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  80  58  81  59 /  20  30  10  30  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  72  55  73  55 /  50  70  30  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
243 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-150645-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
243 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 /143 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on this afternoon,
with the greatest coverage across northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong
with gusty winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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