Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Brought in PoPs across the northern Plateau, NE TN, and SW VA
quicker this morning as well as increased cloud cover from N to S
quicker. Current radar shows a weakening band of convection over
SE KY sinking southward. Lightning is decreasing with this
activity, but CAMS are not initializing it well, and it is
currently much farther S than depicted. Believe that outflow from
this weakening convection will generate new activity from the
northern Plateau east and northeastward by late morning as surface
heating warms temps to near 80 and Td's continue to gradually
creep up to near 60 ahead of the incoming frontal boundary. Deep
layer shear continues to be very marginal at 25-30 kts, but
cooling aloft associated with the approaching upper low from the
OH Valley will bring wet bulb zero heights down to 8500-9000 ft
and allow MLCAPE to build to 1500-2200 J/Kg as surface temps warm
and low-level moisture increases. This will yield fairly
widespread coverage of convection through the afternoon with
isolated severe hail up to quarter size and damaging winds to 60
mph as thermodynamics drive this activity. Increased PoPs to
likely/categorical through the afternoon with the greatest
coverage expected over the east half of the region. The SPC Day 1
Marginal risk seems reasonable for today. Areas that see multiple
episodes of convection could also see localized flooding since
PWATs increase to 1.2 to 1.4 inches leading to heavy rain within
the cores, so WPC has included a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall from far E TN through SW VA. High temps remain on track
for today.

RG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered thunderstorms will impact all sites off and on through
the afternoon leading to brief periods of MVFR or lower flight
conditions. VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms. This
activity will thin out after 00Z, but widely scattered showers
will impact TRI at times through the night leading to brief
periods of MVFR, so included PROB30's for this potential. The
other issue is fog. Areas of fog could impact TYS and TRI between
08 and 12Z leading to MVFR or lower conditions, but this is low
confidence. VFR will quickly return by mid morning with scattered thunderstorms
developing again during the morning leading to brief MVFR.

RG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  83  60  82  61 /  20  20  10  30  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  80  58  80  59 /  20  40  20  30  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  80  58  81  59 /  20  30  10  30  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  72  55  73  55 /  50  70  30  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
243 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-150645-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
243 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 /143 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on this afternoon,
with the greatest coverage across northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong
with gusty winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

TNZ018-141845-
Johnson TN-
156 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
EDT...

At 155 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mountain City, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain City, Shady Valley and Laurel Bloomery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 8171 3647 8170 3646 8171 3642 8172
      3641 8174 3636 8173 3642 8198 3646 8197
      3647 8195 3649 8197 3653 8196 3655 8193
      3657 8193 3658 8188 3660 8187 3660 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 277DEG 12KT 3650 8188

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
159 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

TNZ017-044>047-141845-
Sullivan TN-Washington TN-Northwest Carter TN-Southeast Carter TN-
Unicoi TN-
159 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SULLIVAN...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN UNICOI AND WESTERN CARTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 159 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jonesborough, or near Johnson City, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Elizabethton, Jonesborough, Gray, Oak Grove, Central,
Hampton, Midway, Pine Crest and Spurgeon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8254 3644 8251 3644 8211 3617 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 277DEG 12KT 3635 8244

DH