Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1054 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.UPDATE...For 06Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Two main areas of showers/storms in eastern MN/west central WI
and central MN, elsewhere it should remain dry with some breaks in
the extensive cloud cover through the afternoon. Current CAMs have
trended drier, but my concern is that the broad southerly flow
continues to pool moisture across MN and WI. This allows for more
instability to build through the evening hours and presents a
conditional threat of thunderstorm development. Confidence is low
due to the complexity of the short term forecast.

Thunderstorms look less likely on Tuesday. PoPs approach western MN
Tuesday evening as a weak boundary passes through the Dakotas. High
temperatures will be in the 90s with dew points in the low 70s.
Unfortunately this will be highly dependent on if we can stay dry
with limited to no thunderstorm development this evening/overnight.
Any remnant surface boundaries or MCV could cause a similar scenario
that played out today. For now, we will be optimistic and keep
Tuesday dry and warm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Summery is still the best way to sum up the long term.  We'll have a
weakening "cold" front work through the area on Wednesday, bringing
another increase in precip chances area-wide. After that, we see
heights build across the central/eastern CONUS, sending the flow
well north into Canada. This will result in hot conditions through
the 4th of July weekend. We'll see a weak front wash out over the
area this weekend, that resulted in some low PoPs returning to the
forecast then. The next indications of a more strongly forced front
does not show up until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

For Wednesday, the main upper low forcing the front is the trough
centered over Idaho now. This will evolve into a negatively tilted
trough that will track from northern Colorado, through the Dakotas,
and up into Saskatchewan. This means the best forcing and shear
along the front will remain off to our northwest. However, there is
an MCV currently down by St. Louis that will get picked up by this
trough, with models in fairly good agreement that this MCV moves
into southern MN late Tuesday night and tracks across
southern/central MN through Wednesday afternoon. This feature is
likely what will be our forcing for precip, similar to yesterday,
though without the threat for training and extreme rainfall amounts
as the passage of the cold front will prevent there from being a
continuous moisture feed like we saw last night.

Thursday is trending dry and PoPs were decreased considerably. We
still have some lingering pops in WI, though those can probably be
dropped if current trends continue.

Going into the 4th of July weekend, we see an upper ridge become
centered from the southern Plains up into northwest Ontario. This
will allow highs to take another step up, with highs in the low to
mid 90s from Thursday through the weekend looking likely. A
shortwave cresting this ridge in Canada on Saturday will send a cold
front into the upper MS Valley this weekend, but give high heights
and weak flow, forcing along the front will be weak, with the most
likely scenario for precip being diurnally driven, scattered pulse
type storms. There will be heat issues to watch as well, but right
now, dewpoints are forecast to be more in the mid 60s, which if that
remains the case, would keep apparent temperatures from getting out
of hand and keep us from needing heat headlines.

Going into next week, the ridge does flatten some, and this is what
will allow a strong front to move across the area in the Tuesday or
Wednesday time frame. Till then, enjoy the solid, but not crazy,
summer heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Showers and thunderstorms that were nearly stationary over
central MN this evening are finally starting to shift east and
slightly southeast as the low-level jet ramps up. Given
radar/satellite trends, have a bit more confidence that at least
spotty activity will eventually spread toward KMSP and KRNH, and
possibly KEAU overnight. Therefore have included a Tempo mention
at those sites. MVFR conditions will be possible from west central
into central MN overnight, along with wind gusts to 25 knots with
the showers. Variable winds will become predominately
southeasterly on Tuesday, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to
around 20-25 knots.

KMSP...Starting to see scattered showers develop near KMSP, with
more organized showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms
potentially clipping the site overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind lgt and vrb.
Fri...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind lgt and vrb.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BPH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1009 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
010315-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1009 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will remain possible through the overnight hours,
particularly from central and east central Minnesota into west
central Wisconsin. The main threat is heavy rainfall, which could
result in flooding where storms train repeatedly over the same
area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will also be possible Tuesday through Thursday,
with Wednesday carrying a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms.

Hot and humid conditions are expected through the weekend.
Heat indices in the low to mid 90s are possible during the
afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1158 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

MNC003-025-037-053-059-123-141-163-171-300700-
Wright-Hennepin-Dakota-Chisago-Anoka-Isanti-Sherburne-Washington-
Ramsey-
1158 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING POSSIBLE...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain may cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Wright...Hennepin...Dakota...Chisago...Anoka...Isanti...Sherburne...
Washington...Ramsey...

* Until 200 AM CDT.

* At 1156 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts up to an inch may lead to
  localized areas of urban and small stream flooding.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Minneapolis, St. Paul, Cambridge, Bloomington, Brooklyn Park,
  Plymouth, Eagan, Woodbury, Maple Grove, Coon Rapids, Eden Prairie
  and Burnsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4558 9288 4555 9274 4545 9265 4540 9265
      4529 9276 4511 9274 4507 9280 4494 9275
      4475 9281 4469 9273 4476 9333 4479 9333
      4478 9338 4486 9352 4489 9352 4489 9359
      4502 9387 4543 9353 4574 9314 4573 9285

ETA

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