Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
608 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.UPDATE...For 00Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Two main areas of showers/storms in eastern MN/west central WI
and central MN, elsewhere it should remain dry with some breaks in
the extensive cloud cover through the afternoon. Current CAMs have
trended drier, but my concern is that the broad southerly flow
continues to pool moisture across MN and WI. This allows for more
instability to build through the evening hours and presents a
conditional threat of thunderstorm development. Confidence is low
due to the complexity of the short term forecast.

Thunderstorms look less likely on Tuesday. PoPs approach western MN
Tuesday evening as a weak boundary passes through the Dakotas. High
temperatures will be in the 90s with dew points in the low 70s.
Unfortunately this will be highly dependent on if we can stay dry
with limited to no thunderstorm development this evening/overnight.
Any remnant surface boundaries or MCV could cause a similar scenario
that played out today. For now, we will be optimistic and keep
Tuesday dry and warm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Summery is still the best way to sum up the long term.  We'll have a
weakening "cold" front work through the area on Wednesday, bringing
another increase in precip chances area-wide. After that, we see
heights build across the central/eastern CONUS, sending the flow
well north into Canada. This will result in hot conditions through
the 4th of July weekend. We'll see a weak front wash out over the
area this weekend, that resulted in some low PoPs returning to the
forecast then. The next indications of a more strongly forced front
does not show up until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

For Wednesday, the main upper low forcing the front is the trough
centered over Idaho now. This will evolve into a negatively tilted
trough that will track from northern Colorado, through the Dakotas,
and up into Saskatchewan. This means the best forcing and shear
along the front will remain off to our northwest. However, there is
an MCV currently down by St. Louis that will get picked up by this
trough, with models in fairly good agreement that this MCV moves
into southern MN late Tuesday night and tracks across
southern/central MN through Wednesday afternoon. This feature is
likely what will be our forcing for precip, similar to yesterday,
though without the threat for training and extreme rainfall amounts
as the passage of the cold front will prevent there from being a
continuous moisture feed like we saw last night.

Thursday is trending dry and PoPs were decreased considerably. We
still have some lingering pops in WI, though those can probably be
dropped if current trends continue.

Going into the 4th of July weekend, we see an upper ridge become
centered from the southern Plains up into northwest Ontario. This
will allow highs to take another step up, with highs in the low to
mid 90s from Thursday through the weekend looking likely. A
shortwave cresting this ridge in Canada on Saturday will send a cold
front into the upper MS Valley this weekend, but give high heights
and weak flow, forcing along the front will be weak, with the most
likely scenario for precip being diurnally driven, scattered pulse
type storms. There will be heat issues to watch as well, but right
now, dewpoints are forecast to be more in the mid 60s, which if that
remains the case, would keep apparent temperatures from getting out
of hand and keep us from needing heat headlines.

Going into next week, the ridge does flatten some, and this is what
will allow a strong front to move across the area in the Tuesday or
Wednesday time frame. Till then, enjoy the solid, but not crazy,
summer heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Showers and thunderstorms over central MN look to gradually shift
east/southeast tonight. Hi-res models have been very poor about
catching on to the situation, which lowers confidence about
convective trends overnight. KSTC-KRNH-KEAU will have the higher
odds of seeing shower and thunderstorm activity tonight/overnight
on the nose of the better low-level moisture advection, with
lower confidence as far west as KMSP. Scattered-broken MFVR
ceilings also look to develop overnight, mainly from west central
into central MN. Winds will also be squirrelly this evening, but
eventually settle in on a southeast direction around 8-10 knots,
increasing to 15G25knots on Tuesday.

KMSP...
While we can't entirely rule out showers/storms overnight,
confidence/probability remain too low to include in the TAF. Any
MVFR-level ceilings around daybreak also look to remain Few-Sct
at this point, unless thunderstorms develop.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind lgt and vrb.
Fri...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind lgt and vrb.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BPH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
301800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon and
continue into the overnight hours. The heaviest rainfall will
likely shift north to across central and northern Minnesota
overnight. The threat for severe weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances will also be possible Tuesday through
Thursday, with a Wednesday carrying a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms.

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week. Heat
indices of 95 to 100 degrees are possible by the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
902 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

MNC009-095-097-141-145-300330-
Mille Lacs-Benton-Sherburne-Stearns-Morrison-
902 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Mille Lacs...Benton...Sherburne...Stearns...Morrison...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 902 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
  the area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  St. Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Waite Park, St. Joseph, Cold Spring,
  Collegeville, Milaca, Foley, Albany, Rockville, Avon and Royalton.

Additional rainfall of 2 to 5 inches is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4575 9351 4538 9439 4557 9464 4584 9460
      4598 9364

LS