Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
259 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Scattered thunderstorms are erupting across southern Minnesota
this afternoon ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE values according to
SPC Mesoanalysis indicate 1500 J/kg across portions of southern
MN, but effective wind shear is modest at 20-30 kts. The shear
should improve a bit during the next few hours and the
multicell/pulse type thunderstorms should become better organized
into the evening hours while building eastward into southeastern
MN. Large hail and damaging wind are the main threats.

Convection will settle to the southeast overnight with the front.
There could be a few storms lingering from SC MN into WC WI into
Monday morning, but generally the threat for storms have been
reduced after this evening. Monday's highs will be cooler in the
mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

A large trough will spin multiple weak disturbances across the
region Tuesday and Wednesday. Coupled with modest daytime heating,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to
develop each afternoon. This trough will clear to the east late
week, but several waves continuing eastward across the northern
CONUS will keep chances for storms in our future into next
weekend. The best chance for rain will be Friday into Friday night
as low pressure tracks across the northern Plains to southeastern
Canada. Temperatures will warm back into the 80s late week and
next weekend as heights rise following the departure of the
deeper trough from midweek. An impressive ridge building into the
Upper Midwest early the following week could bring the area back
into the 90s. Substantial tropical flow could also provide dew
points in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Light showers heading eastward into western MN should eventually
build into thunderstorms later this afternoon from central to
southwest MN, then continue in clusters eastward into the evening.
Each location has about a 3 hour window for convection and MVFR
conditions.

KMSP...Best window for thunderstorms will be from 23-02Z according
to current trends. Continued with the TEMPO for this range, along
with MVFR conditions within any storms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind NW 10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind NW 10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc aftn SHRA/TSRA. Wind WNW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
246 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
222000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
246 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon into tonight. There is a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms over southern Minnesota and a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms in central Minnesota into western Wisconsin.
The main hazards are large hail and damaging winds. In addition,
some thunderstorms may produce heavy rain which could cause
isolated flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible for most of the
upcoming week. At this time, severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this evening
across southern Minnesota.

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
347 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

WIZ023-212130-
St. Croix-
347 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. CROIX COUNTY...

At 347 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Somerset, or 17
miles north of River Falls, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Richmond, Somerset, Star Prairie, Cylon, Deer Park and New
Richmond Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4508 9262 4515 9267 4521 9246 4521 9239
      4520 9238 4509 9234
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 255DEG 18KT 4511 9261

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
412 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

WIZ014-015-023-025-212145-
Polk-Barron-St. Croix-Dunn-
412 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DUNN...NORTHEASTERN
ST. CROIX...BARRON AND SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES...

At 412 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cameron, or 8
miles south of Rice Lake, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rice Lake, Barron, Chetek, Cameron, Glenwood City, Clear Lake,
Clayton, Prairie Farm, Dallas, Ridgeland, Forest and Emerald.

This includes U.S. Highway 53 between mile markers 121 and 145.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4501 9230 4520 9243 4564 9155 4559 9153
      4524 9154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 247DEG 18KT 4538 9175

ETA

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