Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Twin Cities, MN

397 
WWUS53 KMPX 280730
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

MNC073-173-280815-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-200828T0815Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Yellow Medicine MN-
230 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAC QUI PARLE AND SOUTHWESTERN YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTIES...

At 228 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Goodwin to near Brandt to Toronto, moving east at
45 mph. At 213 AM a 67 mph gust was observed at Brandt, SD.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Observation.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  Canby around 250 AM CDT.
  Porter around 300 AM CDT.
  Dawson and Clarkfield around 320 AM CDT.
  Boyd around 330 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Spring
Creek, Providence, Burr, Spellman Lake, St. Leo and Florida Creek
Wildlife Management Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4493 9645 4498 9605 4479 9577 4463 9576
      4463 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 265DEG 39KT 4481 9679 4469 9657 4458 9663 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

NDC

872 
WWUS53 KMPX 280804
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
304 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

MNC073-173-280815-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-200828T0815Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Yellow Medicine MN-
304 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE AND CENTRAL YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTIES...

At 303 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Dawson to near Clarkfield to 8 miles north of
Minneota, moving east at 70 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
south central Lac qui Parle and central Yellow Medicine Counties,
including the following locations... Spring Creek, Providence,
Spellman Lake and St. Leo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4498 9605 4479 9577 4463 9576 4463 9609
      4497 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 260DEG 60KT 4491 9607 4479 9585 4468 9591 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1105 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

We have one more evening to deal with the boundary that's plagued
us through the week, and then it finally moves out of here for the
weekend. We are seeing stratocumulus clouds bubble up near said
boundary over southeastern Minnesota into central Wisconsin this
afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
there, but storms elsewhere should hold off until after dark as
convection rolls in from the Dakotas. Hi-res models have been
trending toward two somewhat separate enhancements, one over
central MN closer to the stronger shortwave energy/forcing, and
the other concentration over southwest/south central Minnesota
closer to the surface refection/instability. The latter would have
the higher potential to produce widespread severe weather
(particularly damaging winds) given the potential for a bowing
MCS/QLCS to race in from the Dakotas late tonight.

The severe threat diminishes by Friday morning, but expect at
least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to persist on
Friday with weak shortwave troughing overhead. Given anticipated
stratus cloud cover through at least mid-day, along with weak low-
level cold air advection, have lowered high temperatures a tad.
Highs in central Minnesota will likely struggle to warm out of the
lower 70s, and it could feel a bit cool with brisk northwest
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

The weekend starts off on a dry note as surface/mid-level ridging
builds in. Mild temperatures will persist, with highs in the
low/mid 70s under sunny skies.

Models have exhibited good consistency regarding the trough
ejecting eastward from the northern Rockies to start the upcoming
week, so the Numerical Blend population of 70-80 POPS was not a
surprise. After that system exits, we look to enjoy an overall dry
week with mild temperatures. A few model solutions have some
meager QPF painted over us in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame in
the base of a Hudson Bay mid/upper low, but nothing of any
significance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

VFR conditions as the start of the taf period but storms have
developed out west in the Dakotas as expected and these will race
through Minnesota overnight and into Wisconsin early Friday
morning. Westerly wind gusts of greater than 40 kts are possible
with these storms. After the storms pass through, stratus and
northwest winds will develop and could linger into the afternoon,
so have delayed the transition to VFR conditions toward the
evening.

KMSP...
Storms are still on track to arrive early this morning. Winds
could easily exceed 35 kts if they hold together as expected, so
will have to watch for an AWW or severe TS warning. Northwest
winds will develop on Friday and clouds will scatter out during
the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance -TSRA/SHRA/MVFR late. Wind SSE 10G20 kts.
MON...MVFR with -TSRA/SHRA likely. Wind SSW 10 kts shifting to NW
10 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
739 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
290045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
739 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Confidence remains high in a line of thunderstorms moving from
west to east overnight, mainly after midnight. The primary threat
will be damaging wind, but large hail, and a tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated thunderstorms linger on Friday, although the severe risk
is expected to have shifted southeast of the area.

Additional thunderstorms are expected Sunday night and Monday.
The threat for severe weather with these storms appears low at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed later tonight as
the storms move in from the Dakotas.

jrb