Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Twin Cities, MN

719 
WWUS53 KMPX 280910
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
410 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

MNC127-280920-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-200828T0930Z/
Redwood MN-
410 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN REDWOOD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for
south central, central and southwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4413 9510 4428 9511 4429 9505 4428 9486
      4445 9487 4447 9482 4489 9465 4490 9414
      4459 9408 4411 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 267DEG 41KT 4490 9463 4458 9458 4423 9501 

$$

MNC015-085-103-129-143-280930-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-200828T0930Z/
Sibley MN-McLeod MN-Brown MN-Renville MN-Nicollet MN-
410 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR SIBLEY...SOUTHERN MCLEOD...BROWN...EASTERN RENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN NICOLLET COUNTIES...

At 410 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Cosmos to near Gibbon to Springfield, moving east
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Gibbon around 415 AM CDT.
  Winthrop around 425 AM CDT.
  Hutchinson and Sleepy Eye around 430 AM CDT.
  Gaylord around 435 AM CDT.
  Arlington around 440 AM CDT.
  New Ulm around 445 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Klossner, Essig, New Ulm Airport, Cobden, Hutchinson Airport, Sumter,
Biscay, St George, Lakeside and Fernando.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4413 9510 4428 9511 4429 9505 4428 9486
      4445 9487 4447 9482 4489 9465 4490 9414
      4459 9408 4411 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 267DEG 41KT 4490 9463 4458 9458 4423 9501 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NDC

171 
WWUS53 KMPX 280922
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
422 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

MNC015-085-103-129-143-280932-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-200828T0930Z/
Sibley MN-McLeod MN-Brown MN-Renville MN-Nicollet MN-
422 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SIBLEY...SOUTHERN MCLEOD...
BROWN...EASTERN RENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN NICOLLET COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 430 AM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for
south central, central and southwestern Minnesota.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
the Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4413 9510 4428 9511 4429 9505 4428 9486
      4445 9487 4447 9482 4489 9465 4490 9414
      4459 9408 4411 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0922Z 267DEG 41KT 4491 9444 4459 9440 4424 9483 

$$

NDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
234 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Focus this morning is with severe convection currently making its
way into west central Minnesota. Numerous severe wind gusts have
been observed with this activity over South Dakota overnight, and
we should see similar results for a while as it works into our
area. MUCAPE values ahead of the convection are AOA 2500 J/Kg,
although they do drop off a bit north/east of the Minnesota River
Valley. The best shear (deep layer and low-level) is north of the
best instability, but there is some overlap near the northern
portion of the linear MCS where several mesovortices have been
noted over the past hour or so. With 0-3 km shear of 30-35 kt
ahead of the north end of the MCS, things will still support the
possibility of mesovortices for a little while as things move
through west central Minnesota. Overall, expect some weakening of
the activity as it gets farther east, although that may not happen
until things are east of I-35 after 5 AM.

We could see some showers linger and/or develop into the afternoon
as forcing from the upper trough currently moving into northwest
North Dakota works through the area. Otherwise, high pressure will
build into the region tonight and Saturday, with cooler and drier
conditions expected across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Not a whole lot has changed in respect to the extended
forecast period. Sunday will be pleasant, sunny skies and
temperatures in the low/mid-70s, with increasing sky cover Sunday
evening. Model consistency remains high with a trough ejecting
eastward from the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. A cold
front will extend from the parent low pressure in northern Manitoba
through north central CONUS. Rain and thunderstorms will accompany
the passing boundary during the day on Monday with some remaining
across west-central WI Monday night.

After that system exits, a dry pattern sets up in part to a
northwestern flow aloft. This translates into more seasonable
temperatures through next Thursday. A few model solutions bring a
weak shortwave through Wednesday night/Thursday with low QPF over
the area. For now, no reason to adjust PoPs either way.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

VFR conditions as the start of the taf period but storms have
developed out west in the Dakotas as expected and these will race
through Minnesota overnight and into Wisconsin early Friday
morning. Westerly wind gusts of greater than 40 kts are possible
with these storms. After the storms pass through, stratus and
northwest winds will develop and could linger into the afternoon,
so have delayed the transition to VFR conditions toward the
evening.

KMSP...
Storms are still on track to arrive early this morning. Winds
could easily exceed 35 kts if they hold together as expected, so
will have to watch for an AWW or severe TS warning. Northwest
winds will develop on Friday and clouds will scatter out during
the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance -TSRA/SHRA/MVFR late. Wind SSE 10G20 kts.
MON...MVFR with -TSRA/SHRA likely. Wind SSW 10 kts shifting to NW
10 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
739 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
290045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
739 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Confidence remains high in a line of thunderstorms moving from
west to east overnight, mainly after midnight. The primary threat
will be damaging wind, but large hail, and a tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated thunderstorms linger on Friday, although the severe risk
is expected to have shifted southeast of the area.

Additional thunderstorms are expected Sunday night and Monday.
The threat for severe weather with these storms appears low at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed later tonight as
the storms move in from the Dakotas.

jrb