Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
329 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing across the area at this time and will
continue through this evening before dissipating after dark. The
environment still supports wet microburst potential given moist
boundary layers, dry air aloft, and plenty of instability. As a
result, some of the stronger storms this afternoon could be
capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts in addition to
the typical summertime hazards of frequent lightning and heavy
downpours. Have already noted this potential in a few
thunderstorms this afternoon. The deep-layer wind profile remains
weak, meaning storm motion will be slow and heavily dependent on
initiating boundaries/outflows, so cannot rule out a few instances
of minor flooding and ponding in areas that see heavy rain
persist for more than an hour. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
for portions of southeast Mississippi and coastal counties until 7
pm CDT this evening.

Quiet weather is expected tonight with lows remaining in the mid 70s
inland and upper 70s along the coast. A weak upper low pinches from
a departing mid-latitude trough and retrogrades southwestward over
the local area on Wednesday. Height falls associated with this low
will help support a greater thunderstorm coverage Wednesday morning
through Wednesday evening, with PoPs increasing to around 60-70% for
much of the area. Could once again see a few instances of locally
damaging wind gusts and minor flooding issues in the heavier storms.
Temperatures on Wednesday will remain a few degrees cooler than the
past few days thanks to the increased coverage in rain and clouds.
Highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s/ Heat indices are expected to
stay below advisory criteria, around 100 to 105 degrees. /49

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...An upper
level easterly wave over the region Wednesday night will migrate
westward over the north central gulf and lower Mississippi River
on Thursday, then reach the northwest Gulf and southeast Texas by
late Thursday night. This will maintain scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. A large upper level ridge
of high pressure builds from the Southern Plains eastward across
the Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic States on Friday. The
increased upper heights along with some drier air will decrease
rain chances to more of a typical pattern. Showers and
thunderstorms will start near the coast in the morning, developing
inland through the day. Coverage will be most numerous during
peak heating before decreasing during the evening hours as the
boundary layer cools.

Hot and humid conditions continue with low to mid 90s for high
temps and little change in the muggy overnight lows. /13

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...An easterly mid level
flow prevails through the extended term period as a mid level
high pressure ridge becomes entrenched to the north of our
forecast area. Meanwhile, weak high pressure at the sfc will
maintain a weak flow pattern. The winds will primarily be
diurnally-driven with the daily sea/land breeze cycle and
afternoon heating through the period. Daily thunderstorm chances
continue to hover around 30-50 percent through the weekend into
next week as weak disturbances embedded within the easterly flow
aloft pass over the area and act on a moist and moderately
unstable boundary layer. The coverage of showers and storms will
be focused along the sea breeze near the coast each late morning
into early afternoon and then farther inland during the late
afternoon and early evening hours.

Daytime temperatures will continue to hover in the low to 90s,
with heat indices remaining in the 100 to 107 degree range. Lows
will continue to be in the low to 70s over the interior and in the
upper 70s near and along the coast each night. /13

&&

.MARINE...No impacts are forecast except winds and waves higher near
showers and storms. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

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