Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Monitoring a cu field that is
beginning to percolate across the area this afternoon, per latest
visible satellite imagery. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
by peak heating hours, continuing into the evening before
dissipating after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. The
environment today once again supports wet microburst potential
given moist boundary layers, dry air aloft, and plenty of
instability. As a result, some of the stronger storms this
afternoon could be capable of producing locally damaging wind
gusts in addition to the typical summertime hazards of frequent
lightning and heavy downpours. The deep-layer wind profile remains
weak, meaning storm motion will be slow and heavily dependent on
initiating boundaries/outflows, so cannot rule out a few instances
of minor flooding and ponding in areas that see heavy rain
persist for more than an hour. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
for portions of southeast Mississippi and coastal counties until 7
pm CDT this evening.

Quiet weather is expected tonight with lows remaining in the mid
70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. A weak upper low pinches
from a departing mid-latitude trough and retrogrades southwestward
over the local area on Wednesday. Height falls associated with
this low will help support a greater thunderstorm coverage
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening, with PoPs increasing
to around 60-70% for much of the area. Could once again see a few
instances of locally damaging wind gusts and minor flooding issues
in the heavier storms. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain a
few degrees cooler than the past few days thanks to the increased
coverage in rain and clouds. Highs reach the upper 80s to low
90s/ Heat indices are expected to stay below advisory criteria,
around 100 to 105 degrees. /49

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...A cu field with mostly VFR (locally MVFR) cigs is
forming across much of the area at this time while an upper cloud
deck pushes in from the northwest. The cu field will be suppressed
beneath the upper cloud deck, but elsewhere it is expected to
percolate through the afternoon hours as scattered thunderstorms
develop across the area. Thunderstorms today will be capable of
producing strong, erratic wind gusts in addition to locally lower
cigs/vis and frequent lightning. Convection dissipates after
sunset, leaving mostly VFR conditions through tonight before more
thunderstorms develop Wednesday. /49

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
117 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

MSZ078-141900-
Stone MS-
117 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN STONE COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 117 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Perkinston,
or 8 miles southwest of Wiggins, moving south at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Perkinston and McHenry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3082 8921 3078 8909 3068 8908 3068 8924
      3065 8924 3065 8934 3071 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 020DEG 8KT 3075 8919