Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...A weak upper trof over
the north central Gulf coast, which extends to a western Atlantic
upper trof, evolves into a broad upper low on Saturday as the
western Atlantic upper trof weakens. A weak surface trof which
currently extends across the northeastern Gulf to the northern
Florida peninsula shifts northward into the forecast area this
afternoon, aided by a weak sea breeze. The weak surface trof
drifts southward to be oriented near the coast overnight then
returns inland again on Saturday. Elevated deep layer moisture
over the area with precipitable water values of 1.7-2.1 inches
increases further through Saturday to range from 2.1-2.25 inches.
MLCAPE values today will be up to 1500-2000 J/kg with similar
values expected for Saturday. A comparison of model soundings for
this afternoon and Saturday afternoon show that more moisture will
likely be available in the 900-750 mb layer (albeit with some
uncertainty) indicating a more favorable convective environment on
Saturday. Wet bulb zero values will be near 12 kft today then are
expected to trend higher to near 14 kft on Saturday. 0-6 km bulk
shear will be very low and mainly 10 knots or less. The weak
surface trof, daytime heating and shortwaves moving through the
weak upper trof pattern will support scattered to possibly
numerous showers and storms this afternoon. Have updated to adjust
pops based on the latest Convection Allowing Models (CAMS) which
favor the best coverage of convection over portions of the western
Florida panhandle and south central Alabama this afternoon, and
also made other minor adjustments. The pattern looks similar for
Saturday with shortwaves rotating within the broad upper low which
when combined with the expected more favorable convective
environment will support likely to categorical pops. Precipitation
loading combined with drier air aloft, centered near 600 mb, will
support the potential for stronger storms today, and cannot rule
out a marginally severe storm. Model soundings look decidedly more
moist overall on Saturday so precipitation loading looks to be
the sole potential initiating mechanism for stronger storms, but
severe storm development is not expected. Highs today range from
the lower 90s inland to around 90 at the coast, then highs on
Saturday will be moderated by the expected increased coverage of
convection and be mostly in the upper 80s. Heat index values will
be 95 to 104 today and Saturday. Lows tonight range from the lower
70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. A moderate risk of
rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday Night Through Monday Night/...The southeastern
CONUS will continue to be under the influence of a broad, diffuse
upper level low. At the surface, a stalled boundary over the
northern Gulf coast will remain in place through the short term
period. PWATs will also be elevated, ranging from around 2 inches
to about 2.3 inches area-wide through Monday night. In fact, from
Monday afternoon through Monday night is when the PWATs are likely
to be the greatest. This, in conjunction with MLCAPE values
around 500 J/kg at night and between 500-1000 J/kg during the day,
will lead to daily chances of showers and storms through the
weekend and into early next week. Although, the best chances of
shower/storm activity over land will be during peak heating hours
(in the afternoon). Meanwhile, the better chances for the coast
and open Gulf waters will occur at night.

High temperatures will be a bit cooler than we've seen recently
due to cloud cover, with values in the mid to upper 80s Sunday
afternoon and in the lower to mid 80s Monday afternoon. However,
it will continue to be muggy as dew points will be in the mid to
upper 70s. This will result in heat indices in the mid to upper
90s Sunday afternoon and in the lower to mid 90s Monday afternoon.
Not much relief will be found at night, since low temperatures
will be in the lower to mid 70s north of I-10 and in the mid to
upper 70s south. Lastly, a MODERATE RISK of rip currents exists
through Monday night. /26

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The broad, diffuse upper
level low will begin to slowly move northeast and phase into the
northern stream flow at the start of the extended term, with high
pressure building over the Gulf through midweek. An upper level
ridge will then strengthen over the central CONUS by late in the
week. At the same time, a shortwave trough will begin to traverse
the Mississippi Valley and move southeastward. At the surface, the
stalled boundary over the northern Gulf coast will meander back
northward, with a surface low forming over the Carolinas by
Wednesday. This feature will then slowly move towards the Atlantic
and surface high pressure will take hold over the Gulf through
late week.

The aforementioned pattern will keep an unsettled, yet somewhat
diurnal, weather pattern through the extended term. Expecting the
best chances of showers and storms during the day (time of peak
heating) with isolated to scattered showers/storms at night. High
temperatures will increase from the mid to upper 80s Tuesday to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s once again by Friday afternoon.
Lows will continue to be in the lower to mid 70s north of I-10 and
in the mid to upper 70s south. Furthermore, muggy conditions will
persist as dew points remain in the mid to upper 70s through the
work week. Thus, heat indices will generally be in the mid to
upper 90s Tuesday afternoon; although, some spots could see heat
indices around 100 degrees. Heat indices from midweek through
Friday are then expected to be in the lower to mid 100s. /26

&&

.MARINE...No impacts are forecast except winds and waves will be
locally higher near showers and thunderstorms. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
322 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

ALZ057-058-032045-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
322 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND NORTHWESTERN CRENSHAW COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

At 322 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest
of Highland Home, or 12 miles southeast of Fort Deposit, moving west
at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Highland Home.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8627 3172 8653 3196 8662 3196 8641
      3201 8641 3202 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 071DEG 6KT 3191 8639

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
330 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

MSZ076-032100-
Greene MS-
330 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 330 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Leakesville,
moving west at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leakesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3127 8874 3130 8848 3118 8843 3112 8843
      3101 8864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 071DEG 6KT 3119 8853

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
448 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

ALZ261-263-MSZ079-032215-
Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-George MS-
448 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WESTERN
MOBILE AND EASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast
of Lucedale, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale and Wilmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3073 8841 3074 8841 3074 8874 3098 8857
      3091 8837 3073 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 023DEG 9KT 3088 8851