Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1211 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...A weak upper trof over the north
central Gulf coast, which extends to a western Atlantic upper trof,
evolves into a broad upper low on Saturday as the western Atlantic
upper trof weakens.  A weak surface trof which currently extends
across the northeastern Gulf to the northern Florida peninsula
shifts northward into the forecast area this afternoon, aided by a
weak sea breeze.  The weak surface trof drifts southward to be
oriented near the coast overnight then returns inland again on
Saturday.  Elevated deep layer moisture over the area with
precipitable water values of 1.7-2.1 inches increases further
through Saturday to range from 2.1-2.25 inches.  MLCAPE values today
will be up to 1500-2000 J/kg with similar values expected for
Saturday.  A comparison of model soundings for this afternoon and
Saturday afternoon show that more moisture will likely be available
in the 900-750 mb layer (albeit with some uncertainty) indicating a
more favorable convective environment on Saturday. Wet bulb zero
values will be near 12 kft today then are expected to trend higher
to near 14 kft on Saturday. 0-6 km bulk shear will be very low
and mainly 10 knots or less. The weak surface trof, daytime
heating and shortwaves moving through the weak upper trof pattern
will support scattered to possibly numerous showers and storms
this afternoon. Have updated to adjust pops based on the latest
Convection Allowing Models (CAMS) which favor the best coverage of
convection over portions of the western Florida panhandle and
south central Alabama this afternoon, and also made other minor
adjustments. The pattern looks similar for Saturday with
shortwaves rotating within the broad upper low which when combined
with the expected more favorable convective environment will
support likely to categorical pops. Precipitation loading combined
with drier air aloft, centered near 600 mb, will support the
potential for stronger storms today, and cannot rule out a
marginally severe storm. Model soundings look decidedly more
moist overall on Saturday so precipitation loading looks to be the
sole potential initiating mechanism for stronger storms, but
severe storm development is not expected. Highs today range from
the lower 90s inland to around 90 at the coast, then highs on
Saturday will be moderated by the expected increased coverage of
convection and be mostly in the upper 80s. Heat index values will
be 95 to 104 today and Saturday. Lows tonight range from the lower
70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. A moderate risk of
rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Scattered to numerous showers and storms are
expected to develop over the area today then linger into the
evening hours, with the higher coverage expected mainly over
portions of south central Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle. Scattered to numerous showers and storms redevelop over
the area Saturday morning, with the higher coverage expected over
portions of the coastal counties. Light and predominately northerly
winds are expected today over interior areas while a southerly
flow at 5 to 10 knots develops over the southern portion of the
area. Light and variable winds follow for tonight which continue
into Saturday morning. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
322 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

ALZ057-058-032045-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
322 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND NORTHWESTERN CRENSHAW COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

At 322 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest
of Highland Home, or 12 miles southeast of Fort Deposit, moving west
at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Highland Home.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8627 3172 8653 3196 8662 3196 8641
      3201 8641 3202 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 071DEG 6KT 3191 8639

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
330 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

MSZ076-032100-
Greene MS-
330 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 330 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Leakesville,
moving west at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leakesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3127 8874 3130 8848 3118 8843 3112 8843
      3101 8864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 071DEG 6KT 3119 8853