Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...The axis of an upper trof which
extends from near the mid Mississippi River valley to the Virginias
(and to an upper low over the extreme northeast states) shifts
southward through Thursday into the forecast area.  A surface low is
currently located near the Kansas/Oklahoma border with a frontal
boundary extending eastward across Missouri.  With the southward
progression of the upper trof, the frontal boundary follows suite
and shifts southward to extend across northern Mississippi and
northern Alabama by Thursday. The upper trof pattern has set up a
northwesterly steering flow over the region such that convection
that develops along the frontal boundary will be favored to
progress southward/southeastward in the general direction towards
the forecast area. The current satellite loop shows two
convective complexes have formed within this regime, one of which
has weakened over the area and produced an outflow boundary while
another is actively ongoing in Missouri. The outflow boundary has
advanced into the northern portion of the forecast area and expect
scattered to numerous convective development through the afternoon
hours in response to this feature and also aided by a weak sea
breeze.  MLCAPE values are expected to be near 2000 J/kg in a
fairly moist environment with precipitable water values near 2.0
inches and wet bulb zero values near 13.5 kft. 0-6 km bulk shear
values look low, 20 knots at best, so am expecting the primary
initiating mechanism for stronger storms to be from precipitation
loading.

The attention now turns to what will transpire with the convective
complex over Missouri along with the southward progressing upper
trof and frontal boundary. This convective complex appears to have
already formed another outflow boundary which is expected to
progresses roughly southward. While not handled particularly well
by high resolution guidance or Convection Allowing Models (CAMS),
the expectation is that this next outflow boundary will follow a
similar evolution to the current one and continue southward into
the area late tonight. Complicating this pattern is that yet
another convective complex may develop on the frontal boundary
advancing into northern Mississippi/Alabama. All in all, there
look to be at least a few possible scenarios for convective
development for Thursday which in turn supports going with higher
pops, and have gone with likely to categorical pops for nearly the
entire area. A moist environment remains in place over the area
on Thursday with precipitable water values near 2.0 inches, and
wet bulb zero values are expected to trend higher to around 14
kft. 0-6 km bulk shear values look to be less than 20 knots, so
while MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg are indicated this environment
looks more supportive of general thunderstorms with an occasional
strong storm possible. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s
inland to the upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Thursday range from
the mid 80s well inland, such as near Highway 84 to upper
80s/lower 90s elsewhere. Heat index values this afternoon will be
around 105 in some locations, then look remain in a range of 95 to
around 105 on Thursday.  A low risk of rip currents is expected
through Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Scattered to potentially numerous showers and
storms are expected this afternoon then coverage diminishes this
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may advance into
the area from the north late tonight, then coverage of showers and
storms increases on Thursday. Outside of the convection, VFR
conditions will prevail while MVFR conditions will accompany the
stronger showers and storms. West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots
are expected this afternoon and again Thursday morning for much
of the area, except for southwest near the immediate coast, then
winds become light and variable tonight. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
202 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ060-011930-
Covington AL-
202 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 202 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles northeast
of Florala, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Covington County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8627 3113 8644 3123 8622 3122 8619
      3100 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 309DEG 17KT 3112 8623

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
222 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ052-053-262-012015-
Clarke AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Washington AL-
222 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTH
CENTRAL BALDWIN...CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND SOUTH CENTRAL CLARKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 222 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Wagarville,
or 10 miles east of Chatom, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chatom, Wagarville, Leroy, Tibbie and McIntosh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3146 8822 3155 8794 3135 8777 3133 8779
      3131 8778 3130 8777 3130 8773 3126 8769
      3119 8823 3152 8846 3155 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 328DEG 17KT 3144 8808

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ053>055-012015-
Wilcox AL-Clarke AL-Monroe AL-
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MONROE...NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 236 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast
of Fulton, or 8 miles southeast of Thomasville, moving southeast at
15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 8776 3193 8758 3163 8734 3151 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 332DEG 15KT 3183 8764

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
247 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ052-053-059-261-262-012030-
Clarke AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia AL-Washington AL-
Mobile Inland AL-
247 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN MOBILE...NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTH
CENTRAL CLARKE AND WEST CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 247 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest
of McIntosh, or 13 miles southeast of Chatom, moving southeast at 25
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Citronelle, Gulfcrest, Deer Park, Mount Vernon, Calvert, McIntosh,
Movico and Poarch Creek Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3129 8844 3131 8844 3141 8778 3134 8773
      3133 8775 3136 8777 3131 8778 3130 8777
      3130 8771 3128 8769 3105 8752 3093 8829
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 331DEG 21KT 3131 8812

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
249 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ054-012015-
Wilcox AL-
249 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN WILCOX COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 249 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Camden,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Camden and Pine Apple.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 8719 3207 8719 3206 8718 3205 8718
      3205 8713 3196 8694 3185 8700 3183 8723
      3196 8737 3210 8724
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 308DEG 16KT 3199 8724

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
320 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ052-261-263-MSZ076-079-012100-
Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-Greene MS-George MS-
320 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN MOBILE...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN GEORGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 319 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Lucedale, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Chickasaw,
Satsuma, Citronelle, Lucedale, Chunchula, Gulfcrest, Semmes, Tanner
Williams, I65 And I165, Mobile Regional Airport, Wilmer and I65 And
AL 158.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3068 8841 3074 8841 3073 8868 3114 8868
      3119 8826 3081 8799 3076 8802 3072 8801
      3075 8800 3075 8799 3069 8800 3074 8803
      3068 8803 3068 8800 3067 8803 3075 8804
      3067 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 320DEG 32KT 3101 8851