Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...The axis of an upper trof which
extends from near the mid Mississippi River valley to the Virginias
(and to an upper low over the extreme northeast states) shifts
southward through Thursday into the forecast area.  A surface low is
currently located near the Kansas/Oklahoma border with a frontal
boundary extending eastward across Missouri.  With the southward
progression of the upper trof, the frontal boundary follows suite
and shifts southward to extend across northern Mississippi and
northern Alabama by Thursday. The upper trof pattern has set up a
northwesterly steering flow over the region such that convection
that develops along the frontal boundary will be favored to
progress southward/southeastward in the general direction towards
the forecast area. The current satellite loop shows two
convective complexes have formed within this regime, one of which
has weakened over the area and produced an outflow boundary while
another is actively ongoing in Missouri. The outflow boundary has
advanced into the northern portion of the forecast area and expect
scattered to numerous convective development through the afternoon
hours in response to this feature and also aided by a weak sea
breeze.  MLCAPE values are expected to be near 2000 J/kg in a
fairly moist environment with precipitable water values near 2.0
inches and wet bulb zero values near 13.5 kft. 0-6 km bulk shear
values look low, 20 knots at best, so am expecting the primary
initiating mechanism for stronger storms to be from precipitation
loading.

The attention now turns to what will transpire with the convective
complex over Missouri along with the southward progressing upper
trof and frontal boundary. This convective complex appears to have
already formed another outflow boundary which is expected to
progresses roughly southward. While not handled particularly well
by high resolution guidance or Convection Allowing Models (CAMS),
the expectation is that this next outflow boundary will follow a
similar evolution to the current one and continue southward into
the area late tonight. Complicating this pattern is that yet
another convective complex may develop on the frontal boundary
advancing into northern Mississippi/Alabama. All in all, there
look to be at least a few possible scenarios for convective
development for Thursday which in turn supports going with higher
pops, and have gone with likely to categorical pops for nearly the
entire area. A moist environment remains in place over the area
on Thursday with precipitable water values near 2.0 inches, and
wet bulb zero values are expected to trend higher to around 14
kft. 0-6 km bulk shear values look to be less than 20 knots, so
while MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg are indicated this environment
looks more supportive of general thunderstorms with an occasional
strong storm possible. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s
inland to the upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Thursday range from
the mid 80s well inland, such as near Highway 84 to upper
80s/lower 90s elsewhere. Heat index values this afternoon will be
around 105 in some locations, then look remain in a range of 95 to
around 105 on Thursday.  A low risk of rip currents is expected
through Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Scattered to potentially numerous showers and
storms are expected this afternoon then coverage diminishes this
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may advance into
the area from the north late tonight, then coverage of showers and
storms increases on Thursday. Outside of the convection, VFR
conditions will prevail while MVFR conditions will accompany the
stronger showers and storms. West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots
are expected this afternoon and again Thursday morning for much
of the area, except for southwest near the immediate coast, then
winds become light and variable tonight. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ051-011800-
Choctaw AL-
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1227 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Lisman, or 9
miles north of Butler, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman, Pennington and Toxey.

LAT...LON 3231 8817 3219 8801 3215 8802 3214 8802
      3214 8804 3211 8805 3209 8804 3206 8807
      3207 8808 3207 8810 3206 8812 3201 8812
      3191 8831 3215 8844 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 325DEG 24KT 3222 8828

CGAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
101 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

MSZ067-011845-
Wayne MS-
101 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 100 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast
of Mill Creek, or 11 miles west of Waynesboro, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro and Clara.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 8894 3180 8883 3175 8849 3143 8867
      3144 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 299DEG 9KT 3162 8884

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
103 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ051-053-011845-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-
103 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
CHOCTAW AND NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 103 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Butler,
moving south at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Silas, Gilbertown and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 8839 3214 8818 3177 8801 3174 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 352DEG 16KT 3206 8828

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
114 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ053-011900-
Clarke AL-
114 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 114 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Coffeeville, or 11 miles west of Grove Hill, moving southeast at 15
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grove Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3177 8807 3183 8791 3166 8770 3155 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 329DEG 12KT 3176 8796

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
134 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

FLZ205-206-011915-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
134 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 134 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Niceville,
moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso, Lake Lorraine and Shalimar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8651 3043 8656 3042 8659 3040 8660
      3040 8656 3039 8653 3039 8661 3042 8660
      3043 8657 3043 8659 3044 8659 3044 8660
      3045 8660 3062 8656 3058 8639 3045 8639
      3045 8642 3038 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 286DEG 11KT 3049 8644

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
137 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ051>053-011930-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-Washington AL-
137 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL CHOCTAW...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL CLARKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 137 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest
of Coffeeville, or 17 miles northeast of Chatom, moving southeast at
10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Stephens and Millry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 8835 3176 8805 3152 8794 3147 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 336DEG 9KT 3169 8814