Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
404 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...After dry air and overall
stronger net subsidence turned yesterdays forecast upside down, I
refuse to let it bit me two days in a row. With upper level
ridging the driving factor across the area; however, it is
competing with a very weak shortwave noted at 300 mb. Current
radar and satellite imagery shows an expansive agitated cumulus
field with ongoing showers just north of the interstate 10
corridor. With the influence of the weak ascent and a rather moist
and unstable environment, storms are expected to spread inland
across the area. Despite there being suitable ingredients for wet
microbursts, the lack of shear and overall subsidence should keep
most storms below severe criteria this afternoon. A strong wind
gusts cannot be ruled out especially if storms can get some
vertical development as the afternoon goes on. Storms will quickly
diminish this evening as the weak trough moves off to the east
and the daytime heating weakens.

Ridging continues into the day Monday leaving us with a more
classic summertime pattern with storms beginning on the land
breeze during the morning and then a second round of more robust
storms initiating along the seabreeze and spreading inland
through boundary interactions. As per usual for summertime,
conditions will be semi-favorable for gusty winds and possibly a
severe storm, but overall the threat will be very localized to the
storms that develop some vertical depth. Storms will diminish
between 8 to 10 pm as diurnal heating diminishes.

Along with the chance for storms, it will 100% feel like summer.
With the ridge over head, clouds will be hard to come by allowing
for quick heating during the afternoon. Temperatures will likely
reach the low 90s today and tomorrow with heat indices in the
upper 90s to low 100s. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and
even some 80 degree dewpoints floating around there will be very
little relief overnight. For instance, last night Brookley Field
had a heat index over 90 degrees the whole night. BB/03

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...The upper
high pressure area over the Gulf of Mexico will expand westward to
include northern Mexico through the short term. A small upper
ridge extending northward from the northeast gulf to the western
Great Lakes region will breakdown into a zonal flow over the
southeast conus as an upper level shortwave over Missouri lifts
north-northeast over the lower midwest, and the large upper low
pressure area over the northeast conus expands toward the
southwest. Meanwhile, the local area remains on the western
periphery of a surface high in the western Atlantic, which will
maintain our general southwesterly to westerly low level wind
flow.

The isolated to scattered convection late Monday afternoon will
dissipate by sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Due to
influence of the upper ridge aloft, expect dry conditions Monday
night through much of Tuesday morning. With the moist mainly
zonal flow pattern aloft will become prevalent across the region
on Tuesday, with precipitable water values remaining between
1.7-1.9 inches and weak impulses in the mid level flow traversing
the area, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
forecast due to decreasing stability. Again the convection late
Tuesday afternoon will dissipate by sunset with dry conditions
overnight. Scattered, mainly afternoon, showers and thunderstorms
are expected again on Wednesday. A few of the stronger
thunderstorms both days could have brief gusty strong winds.

Daytime highs Tuesday and Wednesday will range from 88 to 94
degrees, and remain muggy. Expect heat indices up to 100° both
days. Low temperatures will be a carbon copy each night with
temperatures only falling into the low 70s inland with upper 70s
at the beaches. Rip current risk remains LOW through the short
term. /22

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The overall change in
the weather pattern across much of the conus will continue to
evolve as the upper trough extending from Nova Scotia to the lower
Appalachian Mountains continue to swing southeast over the
western Pacific. However, a broader upper trough will remain in
place east of the Mississippi River, and actually dig southward
over the northeast Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the
week as the remnants of the omega high dissipates and a strong
upper ridge builds northward over the northern Great Plains and
south central Canada. There also remains the likelihood that a
low/mid closed low pressure area will either move into the
southeast region from the north or develop across the region on
Friday. There still remains a lot of uncertainty with the
position/movement and strength of this feature, and we will
continue to monitor the situation as it will impact which areas
have the best chance of receiving precipitation as it remains over
the southeast states through the 4th of July weekend.

The extended term still looks to be unsettled and wet with
abundant deep layer moisture remaining in place with precipitable
water values between 1.5 to 2 inches. With the large area of upper
weakness persisting and a frontal boundary meandering across the
forecast area, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through the extended, with mainly scattered coverage
during the overnight and morning hours. Daytime highs will
persistently be in the mid 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows
generally in the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s right along the
beaches. /22

&&

.MARINE...Light onshore flow continues through Tuesday with
occasionally moderate onshore flow across the nearshore waters and
bays in the afternoon. Isolated showers and storms are possible
each afternoon across the nearshore waters and bays associated
with the sea breeze. Winds become more westerly by the middle of
the week with increasing rain by Thursday and Friday. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
428 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

ALZ057-058-282215-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
428 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND NORTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

At 428 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of
Logan, or 9 miles southeast of Fort Deposit, moving northeast at 40
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Petrey and Highland Home.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8618 3173 8652 3196 8666 3196 8641
      3203 8641 3204 8640 3204 8641 3205 8640
      3205 8630 3197 8630 3197 8620 3196 8619
      3190 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 233DEG 34KT 3190 8646

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
531 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

ALZ052-053-282315-
Clarke AL-Washington AL-
531 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles west of
Saint Stephens, or 7 miles northeast of Chatom, moving northeast at
45 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Saint Stephens, Leroy and Coffeeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3157 8767 3141 8816 3155 8830 3170 8817
      3170 8809 3174 8809 3176 8811 3188 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 230DEG 41KT 3154 8816

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
532 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE GREENVILLE        31.86N 86.54W
06/28/2020                   BUTLER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN TO THE EAST OF
            GREENVILLE, AL. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
540 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N GREENVILLE          31.86N 86.62W
06/28/2020                   BUTLER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWNED ALONG BURGAMY SWAMP ROAD
            AND HIGHWAY 97 APPROXIMATELY 2 TO 3 MILES
            EAST AND NORTHEAST OF PANOLA. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW HIGHLAND HOME      31.99N 86.36W
06/28/2020                   CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG BURGAMY
            SWAMP ROAD AND HIGHWAY 97, APPROXIMATELY 5
            MILES NORTHWEST OF HIGHLAND HOME, AL. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
616 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

ALZ051>053-290000-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-Washington AL-
616 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...CENTRAL CHOCTAW...CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN
CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 616 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles west of Toxey to 4 miles southwest of
Coffeeville to 6 miles east of Tibbie, and moving northeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Butler, Saint Stephens, Wagarville, Leroy, Tibbie,
Coffeeville, Gilbertown and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 8804 3211 8805 3209 8804 3206 8807
      3207 8810 3205 8812 3202 8812 3199 8810
      3201 8809 3199 8807 3199 8788 3196 8784
      3139 8775 3129 8826 3165 8824 3201 8846
      3223 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 234DEG 5KT 3193 8838 3172 8814 3139 8815

JLH