Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...After dry air and overall
stronger net subsidence turned yesterdays forecast upside down, I
refuse to let it bit me two days in a row. With upper level
ridging the driving factor across the area; however, it is
competing with a very weak shortwave noted at 300 mb. Current
radar and satellite imagery shows an expansive agitated cumulus
field with ongoing showers just north of the interstate 10
corridor. With the influence of the weak ascent and a rather moist
and unstable environment, storms are expected to spread inland
across the area. Despite there being suitable ingredients for wet
microbursts, the lack of shear and overall subsidence should keep
most storms below severe criteria this afternoon. A strong wind
gusts cannot be ruled out especially if storms can get some
vertical development as the afternoon goes on. Storms will quickly
diminish this evening as the weak trough moves off to the east
and the daytime heating weakens.

Ridging continues into the day Monday leaving us with a more
classic summertime pattern with storms beginning on the land
breeze during the morning and then a second round of more robust
storms initiating along the seabreeze and spreading inland
through boundary interactions. As per usual for summertime,
conditions will be semi-favorable for gusty winds and possibly a
severe storm, but overall the threat will be very localized to the
storms that develop some vertical depth. Storms will diminish
between 8 to 10 pm as diurnal heating diminishes.

Along with the chance for storms, it will 100% feel like summer.
With the ridge over head, clouds will be hard to come by allowing
for quick heating during the afternoon. Temperatures will likely
reach the low 90s today and tomorrow with heat indices in the
upper 90s to low 100s. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and
even some 80 degree dewpoints floating around there will be very
little relief overnight. For instance, last night Brookley Field
had a heat index over 90 degrees the whole night. BB/03

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions will continue through the evening
with a light southerly wind. Current radar shows light development
of showers and an isolated thunderstorm along and just north of
interstate 10. Storms should increase in coverage and spread
northward with the best chances for rain along the highway 84
corridor. Storms will diminish early this evening. Some MVFR cigs
and patchy fog could be possible along and north of highway 84
late tonight; however, this will likely be dependent on the
coverage of storms this afternoon. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
142 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

ALZ059-060-281930-
Escambia AL-Covington AL-
142 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA AND SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

At 141 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 14 miles east of
Riverview, or 16 miles east of Brewton, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Escambia and southwestern Covington Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8658 3100 8689 3112 8698 3120 8677
      3119 8676 3120 8674 3118 8673 3118 8672
      3119 8672 3119 8670 3122 8670 3128 8654
      3103 8643
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 247DEG 16KT 3105 8681

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
239 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

ALZ056-057-282030-
Conecuh AL-Butler AL-
239 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BUTLER
AND CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Evergreen,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Evergreen, Georgiana, McKenzie, Repton and I65 And US 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 8645 3165 8650 3163 8650 3132 8707
      3141 8728 3189 8661 3172 8644
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 230DEG 34KT 3146 8698

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
240 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

ALZ060-282030-
Covington AL-
240 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 240 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest
of Lockhart, or 10 miles northwest of Florala, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Covington
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 8654 3127 8662 3128 8619 3102 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 276DEG 29KT 3112 8644

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
311 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

ALZ060-282045-
Covington AL-
311 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 311 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Opp, moving
east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Opp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 8633 3142 8635 3144 8622 3144 8620
      3124 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 264DEG 24KT 3134 8626

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
312 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

ALZ056-057-282100-
Conecuh AL-Butler AL-
312 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER AND NORTH CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 312 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles west of
Georgiana, or 14 miles north of Evergreen, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Butler
and north central Conecuh Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 8660 3153 8695 3164 8706 3172 8700
      3172 8699 3175 8691 3183 8691 3188 8687
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 236DEG 20KT 3164 8691