Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
353 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...The upper level trough
that brought better coverage of storms the past few days is finally
departing the eastern seaboard leaving a large area of high pressure
building over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
No real notable surface features outside the diurnal seabreeze and
the weak surface high over the western Atlantic leading to light
return flow across the area. The real way to sum this up is welcome
to summer on the Gulf coast.

Several weak shortwaves will progress through the top of the upper
ridge this afternoon and on Saturday leading to some storm chances
during each afternoon. A few light showers along the highway 84
corridor show the presence of these shortwaves with the next one
tucked back over southwestern Mississippi. Expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms to develop likely over southeastern
Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama and slowly progress
eastward throughout the evening. Given the presence of the
departing trough and the shortwaves being fairly weak, coverage
should stay scattered this evening. Surface soundings this
afternoon show a modestly unstable environment with some
downdraft cape values approaching 1000 J/KG. This would be
supportive of at least gusty winds but given the lack of shear and
some mid-level capping the threat for severe is near zero. Storms
will likely dissipate later this evening before clearing out
tonight.

Saturday will be a little bit different as moisture increases
across the area with PWATS approaching 1.8 to 1.9 inches. This
will be in response to a slightly stronger shortwave moving into
the area by the late afternoon. Instability will be slightly
higher as well with some areas likely approaching 3000 J/kg of
MLCape. The big caveat to tomorrow will be the placement of the
subtle jet axis with most models moving it directly over our
coastal counties. This would likely displace any convection along
our northern interior counties with likely a rather sharp gradient
in coverage as you approach the coast. 500 mb winds will be around
35 to 40 knots leading to around 35 knots of bulk effective
shear. This modest but enough shear could lead to a more organized
storm mode with convective clusters. This coupled with 1000 to
1200 J/KG of DCape could lead to a better severe threat than this
afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with maybe
some smaller hail (Dime to Nickle sized) mixing in with the
stronger updrafts. As a result, the SPC has outlined most of our
area in a marginal risk.

Temperatures will remain near normal through Saturday with lows in
the 70s and highs in the low 90s. The main thing will be the
dewpoints hovering in the mid to upper 70s making it feel sticky
with very little relief. Heat indices will float around 100 along
the coastal areas. We will also be dealing with the Saharan dust
for a few more days leading to hazy skies and possibly some minor
air quality issues. BB/03

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Convection
should fade away rather quickly Saturday evening as the upper
shortwave that is expected to pass over the area during the day on
Saturday moves off to the east through Sunday. In its wake, high
pressure ridging from the western Gulf northeast into the southern
Mississippi River Valley shifts east over the local area. This may
suppress convective activity slightly on Sunday, but with a moist
southerly flow off the Gulf we will maintain an environment of
moderate instability (generally around 2000 J/kg) and sufficient
moisture content (PWATs around 1.80 inches) during the day on
Sunday that will result in at least isolated to scattered showers
and storms once again. Monday will be similar, but coverage of
showers and storms will probably be a little more, especially over
the western portions of the forecast area, as the upper ridge
slides east and a weak upper trough begins to approach from the
west. In short, generally expect a diurnal convective pattern
during the short term period. High temperatures both Sunday and
Monday will continue to be hot, with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Low temperatures each night in the lower 70s across
interior locations and mid 70s closer to the coast, except for a
few upper 80s right along the beaches and barrier islands. /12

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...General weakness aloft
develops by Tuesday and then continues through the extended term
period. This will result in increased cloud coverage and high PoPs
through the period, with a general unsettle weather pattern
persisting. We will be expecting scattered to numerous showers and
storms each day, with isolated to scattered showers and storms
remaining possible during the overnight hours. With the increased
cloud cover and PoPs, daytime high temperatures will lower
slightly, mainly ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Overnight lows generally remain in the low to mid 70s. /12

&&

.MARINE...No significant impacts expected over the marine area
through the period. Seas generally remain 2 feet or less with light
onshore flow. Locally higher winds are expected near shore in
association with the developing afternoon seabreeze and also near
isolated showers and thunderstorms. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
411 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

ALZ060-FLZ205-262200-
Covington AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
411 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL COVINGTON AND NORTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of
Baker, or 10 miles northwest of Crestview, moving east at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview, Baker and Laurel Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8641 3074 8678 3095 8679 3098 8679
      3100 8671 3099 8671 3099 8669 3100 8669
      3106 8644
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 251DEG 5KT 3087 8668