Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
357 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...Forecast for this afternoon
basically on track, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to develop over portions of interior southwest Alabama.
Current forecast calls for likely PoPs by later this afternoon,
and although coverage may not end up as widespread as originally
thought, mesoscale analysis indicates a quite unstable airmass in
place (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG and areas with SBCAPE up to over
4000 J/KG) so coverage (and intensity) of storms could very well
increase this afternoon. Unlike yesterday though, atmospheric
shear is much lower, so the severe threat is lower (especially
with regard to tornadoes). However, the previously advertised
Saharan Air Layer, and associated dust and dry mid level dry air,
has arrived along the central Gulf coast and the drier air aloft
could result in some stronger downdrafts with the stronger storms
this afternoon. Our microburst checklist procedure came up with a
Moderate threat of downbursts today. Also heating up this
afternoon, a few degrees above expected in some locations, with
heat indices in the upper 90s and even into the 100-105 range in
some locations over the southern third of our forecast area.

For tonight, expect at least isolated to scattered convection to
continue until mid evening, especially over inland areas. By late
evening most of this activity should end, but some lingering
showers or storms could last all night long as the low level airmass
remains moist and weak disturbances continue to move across the
area on the backside of the upper trough that will be departing
off to the east of the area. Lows tonight remaining quite muggy,
mainly in the lower 70s over inland areas and mid to upper 70s
closer to and along the coast.

On Friday, the weather pattern begins to change somewhat as weak
deeper layer ridging begins to develop across our area. Plenty of
low level moisture with a continued east to southeast flow off of
the Gulf (PWATs in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range), combined with
daytime heating, should allow for some isolated to scattered
daytime showers and thunderstorms, but overall coverage should
continue to be decreased as compared to the last couple of days.
Will continue to be hot and a little hazy (due to the dust in the
air) on Friday. High temperatures will primarily be in the upper
80s and lower 90s across the entire area, with the cooler temps
over the far northwest and also along the immediate coast (where
even a few mid 80s for highs will be possible). Heat indices on
Friday will again be quite warm, mainly in the upper 90s to
100-105 degree range once again. /12

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...A flat upper
level ridge is progged to be positioned from the southwest
Atlantic westward into the Gulf into the weekend. North of the
ridge, mid-level impulses with varying degrees of amplitude
amongst the guidance migrate eastward Saturday. Some indications
that the nose of the Gulf upper ridge will extend more northward
over the area into the day Sunday, bounded by a two upper level
trofs. One over the Mid-Atlantic to its east and the other over
the Plains to its west. No appreciable change to environmental
moisture depth is noted through the weekend with PWATs ranging
from 1.8-2.0 inches. Considering this along with daytime
instability and the passage of mid-level impulses looks to aid in
the initiation of mainly daytime scattered showers and storms
Saturday. Even though more ridging aloft would suggest a lower
chance of storms Sunday, will maintain a modest chance of storms
out of respect for impulses riding down the southwest side of Mid-
Atlantic trof.

As for temperatures, latest guidance shows warm, muggy nights with
night-time lows ranging in the lower/mid 70s interior. Mid to
upper 70s likely to the south and closer to the coast. Highs
Saturday are anticipated to be in the mid to upper 80s northwest
of I-65 and along the coast. Upper 80s to lower 90s along and
southeast of I-65 to I-10. Highs Sunday 87 to 92 range area-wide.
/10

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Gulf upper ridge looks
to continue nosing northward into the Lower MS River Valley to
start the new work week. An upper low over the northeast US Monday
eases southwest over the New England states by the middle of next
week. A potentially active high level northwest flow pattern looks
to setup between this northeast US upper trof/low and the southern
US ridge. These types of flow patterns support southeastward
propagating convective complexes which can produce strong winds.
Considering this potential, little change in deep moisture as
mentioned in the short term discussion, daytime heating and
instability, showers and storms look to become likely each day.
Before storms bring a cool off, heat indices of 98 to 103°
possible in some locations through the middle of next week.

Low level/surface pressure ridge remains anchored over the FL
Peninsula with little change in highs and lows. /10

&&

.MARINE...No significant impacts expected over the marine area
through the period. Seas generally 2 feet or less, enhanced
slightly near shore by afternoon sea breeze and also around
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. /12

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
305 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ALZ056-057-060-252045-
Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Covington AL-
305 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...EAST CENTRAL CONECUH AND NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 305 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Evergreen, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Evergreen, McKenzie, River Falls, Red Level and I65 And US 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3128 8655 3139 8715 3161 8702 3154 8650
      3153 8650 3152 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 282DEG 24KT 3150 8696

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ALZ060-252100-
Covington AL-
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southeast
of Heath, or 6 miles east of Andalusia, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Opp, River Falls, Red Level, Heath and Gantt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3128 8665 3152 8659 3152 8653 3149 8640
      3145 8640 3148 8636 3145 8626 3144 8626
      3144 8619 3140 8620 3116 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 282DEG 23KT 3131 8637

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
506 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ALZ056-252245-
Conecuh AL-
506 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
CONECUH COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 506 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest
of I65 And US 84, or 9 miles northwest of Evergreen, moving east at
20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Evergreen and I65 And US 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3126 8684 3143 8721 3152 8717 3153 8717
      3160 8714 3154 8685 3153 8684 3152 8679
      3151 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 290DEG 15KT 3149 8710

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
519 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ALZ056-059-252300-
Conecuh AL-Escambia AL-
519 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTH
CENTRAL ESCAMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 519 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Castleberry,
or 9 miles north of Brewton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Evergreen, Castleberry and I65 And US 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 8700 3123 8717 3149 8704 3134 8678
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 213DEG 8KT 3125 8704