Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
357 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...Forecast for this afternoon
basically on track, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to develop over portions of interior southwest Alabama.
Current forecast calls for likely PoPs by later this afternoon,
and although coverage may not end up as widespread as originally
thought, mesoscale analysis indicates a quite unstable airmass in
place (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG and areas with SBCAPE up to over
4000 J/KG) so coverage (and intensity) of storms could very well
increase this afternoon. Unlike yesterday though, atmospheric
shear is much lower, so the severe threat is lower (especially
with regard to tornadoes). However, the previously advertised
Saharan Air Layer, and associated dust and dry mid level dry air,
has arrived along the central Gulf coast and the drier air aloft
could result in some stronger downdrafts with the stronger storms
this afternoon. Our microburst checklist procedure came up with a
Moderate threat of downbursts today. Also heating up this
afternoon, a few degrees above expected in some locations, with
heat indices in the upper 90s and even into the 100-105 range in
some locations over the southern third of our forecast area.

For tonight, expect at least isolated to scattered convection to
continue until mid evening, especially over inland areas. By late
evening most of this activity should end, but some lingering
showers or storms could last all night long as the low level airmass
remains moist and weak disturbances continue to move across the
area on the backside of the upper trough that will be departing
off to the east of the area. Lows tonight remaining quite muggy,
mainly in the lower 70s over inland areas and mid to upper 70s
closer to and along the coast.

On Friday, the weather pattern begins to change somewhat as weak
deeper layer ridging begins to develop across our area. Plenty of
low level moisture with a continued east to southeast flow off of
the Gulf (PWATs in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range), combined with
daytime heating, should allow for some isolated to scattered
daytime showers and thunderstorms, but overall coverage should
continue to be decreased as compared to the last couple of days.
Will continue to be hot and a little hazy (due to the dust in the
air) on Friday. High temperatures will primarily be in the upper
80s and lower 90s across the entire area, with the cooler temps
over the far northwest and also along the immediate coast (where
even a few mid 80s for highs will be possible). Heat indices on
Friday will again be quite warm, mainly in the upper 90s to
100-105 degree range once again. /12

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...A flat upper
level ridge is progged to be positioned from the southwest
Atlantic westward into the Gulf into the weekend. North of the
ridge, mid-level impulses with varying degrees of amplitude
amongst the guidance migrate eastward Saturday. Some indications
that the nose of the Gulf upper ridge will extend more northward
over the area into the day Sunday, bounded by a two upper level
trofs. One over the Mid-Atlantic to its east and the other over
the Plains to its west. No appreciable change to environmental
moisture depth is noted through the weekend with PWATs ranging
from 1.8-2.0 inches. Considering this along with daytime
instability and the passage of mid-level impulses looks to aid in
the initiation of mainly daytime scattered showers and storms
Saturday. Even though more ridging aloft would suggest a lower
chance of storms Sunday, will maintain a modest chance of storms
out of respect for impulses riding down the southwest side of Mid-
Atlantic trof.

As for temperatures, latest guidance shows warm, muggy nights with
night-time lows ranging in the lower/mid 70s interior. Mid to
upper 70s likely to the south and closer to the coast. Highs
Saturday are anticipated to be in the mid to upper 80s northwest
of I-65 and along the coast. Upper 80s to lower 90s along and
southeast of I-65 to I-10. Highs Sunday 87 to 92 range area-wide.
/10

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Gulf upper ridge looks
to continue nosing northward into the Lower MS River Valley to
start the new work week. An upper low over the northeast US Monday
eases southwest over the New England states by the middle of next
week. A potentially active high level northwest flow pattern looks
to setup between this northeast US upper trof/low and the southern
US ridge. These types of flow patterns support southeastward
propagating convective complexes which can produce strong winds.
Considering this potential, little change in deep moisture as
mentioned in the short term discussion, daytime heating and
instability, showers and storms look to become likely each day.
Before storms bring a cool off, heat indices of 98 to 103°
possible in some locations through the middle of next week.

Low level/surface pressure ridge remains anchored over the FL
Peninsula with little change in highs and lows. /10

&&

.MARINE...No significant impacts expected over the marine area
through the period. Seas generally 2 feet or less, enhanced
slightly near shore by afternoon sea breeze and also around
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. /12

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
305 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ALZ056-057-060-252045-
Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Covington AL-
305 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...EAST CENTRAL CONECUH AND NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 305 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Evergreen, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Evergreen, McKenzie, River Falls, Red Level and I65 And US 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3128 8655 3139 8715 3161 8702 3154 8650
      3153 8650 3152 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 282DEG 24KT 3150 8696

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ALZ060-252100-
Covington AL-
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southeast
of Heath, or 6 miles east of Andalusia, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Opp, River Falls, Red Level, Heath and Gantt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3128 8665 3152 8659 3152 8653 3149 8640
      3145 8640 3148 8636 3145 8626 3144 8626
      3144 8619 3140 8620 3116 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 282DEG 23KT 3131 8637

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
506 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ALZ056-252245-
Conecuh AL-
506 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
CONECUH COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 506 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest
of I65 And US 84, or 9 miles northwest of Evergreen, moving east at
20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Evergreen and I65 And US 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3126 8684 3143 8721 3152 8717 3153 8717
      3160 8714 3154 8685 3153 8684 3152 8679
      3151 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 290DEG 15KT 3149 8710

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
519 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ALZ056-059-252300-
Conecuh AL-Escambia AL-
519 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTH
CENTRAL ESCAMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 519 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Castleberry,
or 9 miles north of Brewton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Evergreen, Castleberry and I65 And US 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 8700 3123 8717 3149 8704 3134 8678
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 213DEG 8KT 3125 8704

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
538 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TORNADO          4 ESE RAMSEY SPRINGS    30.76N 88.86W
06/24/2020                   GEORGE             MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN OCCURRED JUST NORTH OF
            THE GEORGE AND JACKSON COUNTY LINE AND
            CONTINUED JUST OVER 1 MILE TOWARDS THE
            NORTHEAST. NUMEROUS PINE TREES WERE SNAPPED
            NEAR THE TRUNK. THE APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM PATH
            WIDTH WAS 50 YARDS.

0119 PM     TORNADO          3 W AGRICOLA            30.81N 88.58W
06/24/2020                   GEORGE             MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST EAST OF CCC ROAD
            AND TRAVELED JUST LESS THAN ONE MILE TO THE
            NORTHEAST ENDING AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            HILLTOP DRIVE AND MARSHALL SMITH ROAD. A FEW
            TREE TOPS WERE DAMAGED IN A PASTURE WITH A
            STRAND OF TREES UPROOTED ALONG A FENCE LINE.
            THERE WAS MINOR DAMAGE TO A METAL ROOF OF A
            HOUSE ALONG WITH METAL ROOFING TORN FROM A
            SHED. THE APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH WAS
            50 YARDS.

0122 PM     TORNADO          1 SSE AGRICOLA          30.79N 88.52W
06/24/2020                   GEORGE             MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A TORNADO BEGAN JUST SOUTH OF PARKER ROAD
            AND TRAVELED NORTHEAST APPROXIMATELY 2
            MILES, CROSSING NENA ROAD AND HWY. 613,
            BEFORE ENDING IN A PASTURE JUST SOUTH OF
            CORLEY ROAD. SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED AND
            UPROOTED ALONG PARKER ROAD. IN ADDITION, A
            ROOF ON A HOME WAS DAMAGED AND SEVERAL METAL
            PANELS WERE TORN FROM AN OUTBUILDING. ALONG
            NENA ROAD, AN OUTBUILDING WAS DESTROYED AND
            A MOBILE HOME WAS DAMAGED. THERE WERE ALSO
            SEVERAL ADDITIONAL TREES SNAPPED. ANOTHER
            OUTBUILDING WAS DESTROYED BY A FALLEN OAK
            TREE ALONG HWY. 613, WITH ANOTHER LARGE OAK
            TREE UPROOTED AT THE END OF THE TORNADO PATH
            JUST SOUTH OF CORLEY ROAD.

0139 PM     TORNADO          2 SSW MAGNOLIA GROVE GO 30.71N 88.22W
06/24/2020                   MOBILE             AL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A VERY BRIEF, WEAK EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN
            JUST NORTH OF ZEIGLER BLVD ON DURBIN COURT
            AND TRACKED NORTHEAST, LIFTING AS IT
            APPROACHED THE MOBILE FAIRGROUNDS. THE
            DAMAGE WITH THE TORNADO WAS VERY SPORADIC
            AND LIGHT, WITH MAINLY BRANCHES OF SOFTWOOD
            TREES DAMAGED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST
            OF THE NOTABLE DAMAGE WAS FROM 60 TO 70 MPH
            STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THAT CONTINUED FURTHER
            TO THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE OVERLOOK DR
            AND MOFFETT ROAD AREAS, RESULTING IN
            SPORADIC TREE, POWER LINE, AND MINOR ROOF
            DAMAGE. THANKS TO MOBILE COUNTY EMA FOR
            THEIR ASSISTANCE.

0149 PM     TORNADO          2 W TURNERVILLE         30.98N 88.17W
06/24/2020                   MOBILE             AL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN SOUTHWEST OF
            KELLY TRAIL AND MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
            ROAD. IN THIS AREA, SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS
            NOTED TO BOTH SOFTWOOD AND HARDWOOD TREES
            WITH THE TRUNKS OF MANY TREES SNAPPED. A
            COUPLE OF HOMES SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
            DUE TO THE FALLEN TREES. ANOTHER HOME ON THE
            WESTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO PATH HAD ROOF
            DAMAGE TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STRUCTURE.
            THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST AND CROSSED
            CELESTE ROAD, WEAKENED AND LIFTED JUST EAST
            OF JOHN KELLY ROAD. THE TREE DAMAGE WAS MUCH
            MORE SPORADIC AND NOT AS SIGNIFICANT IN THE
            CELESTE ROAD AREA AS IT WAS FURTHER TO THE
            SOUTHWEST.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
538 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ALZ051-052-261-263-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-252345-
Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-Stone MS-
Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-George MS-
538 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...WESTERN
WASHINGTON...GEORGE...PERRY...WAYNE...GREENE AND STONE COUNTIES UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles southwest of Pulaski to Moss to near McHenry,
and moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Wiggins, Lucedale, Richton, Leakesville, Clara,
Perkinston, McHenry, Deer Park, Beaumont, New Augusta, Millry,
McLain, State Line, Buckatunna, Silas, Fruitdale and Wilmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8914 3143 8915 3143 8894 3182 8894
      3185 8863 3189 8848 3193 8847 3177 8830
      3075 8829 3073 8888 3069 8889 3068 8922
      3091 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 271DEG 36KT 3222 8965 3179 8919 3073 8917