Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
352 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...Upper level shortwave energy will
move through an upper trough stretching south over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley through the Near Term. The first batch
moves across the Southeast this afternoon into tonight, with the
next round expected later tonight through Thursday. A low level
ridge is stretching west over the northern Gulf, creating deep southerly
low level flow and keeping moisture levels high. Precipitable h20
values reported from the KLIX and KJAN upper air sites ranged from
1.8" to 2.1", well above normal for the date. An upper ridge
stretching west over the Gulf of Mexico helps to direct the energy
exiting the Lower Mississippi River upper trough in an east-
northeast direction, and for the fore the forecast area, bringing a
better chance of rain to inland areas of the forecast area through
the Near Term.

Strong to severe storms remain possible over the forecast area this
afternoon into tonight. A combination of MLCapes approaching
2500J/kg, the soupy airmass over the forecast area and nearby, along
with a bit of help from a weak 850mb speed max on the southeast side
of an embedded low level trough moving across the Southeast will
help to create favorable conditions for convective downbursts.
Guidance is advertising DCape values approaching 1000J/kg on the
leading edge of the rain, enhancing any damaging downburst winds
that may occur. Weak tornadoes may also be possible, especially if a
storms follows a previous outflow boundary, but with 0-1km helicity
values advertised of 100m^2/s^2, strong/long track tornadoes are not
indicated. Will need to monitor, with this morning's weather not
quite following what the guidance is saying. With the linear nature
of winds in the model soundings, with bulk shear values of 30-35kts,
linear/bowing segments in the convection bringing strong downburst
winds is expected mode of damage. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will
be issued shortly for our Al/Fl counties except for Choctaw in
effect until 9 PM CDT/02Z.

Looking at temperatures, with better chance of convection across
portions of the forecast area along and north of I-65, better
heating south will bring temperatures closer to seasonal norms, with
below normal high temperatures. Rain cooling overnight will bring
below seasonal low temperatures north of I-65, around to a bit above
southeast.
/16

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...The upper ridge
stretching west over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico shifts west
and becomes centered over the Florida Peninsula. This ridge also
builds north over the Southeast Thursday night into Friday night,
then shifts east to the Eastern seaboard as shortwave energy
moves through the upper trough over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley/eastern Southern Plains. Guidance varies in the handling
of the pushing match between the upper trough and the
Gulf/Southeast upper ridge, with the ECMWF maintaining a stronger
ridge than the GFS, and any shortwave energy moving through the
trough passing farther north of the coast. The result is the GFS
advertising more shortwave energy passing closer to the forecast
area and a wetter/bit cooler forecast through the Short Term.
Guidance has been inconsistent run to run in the handling of the
upper ridge. Have went with a blended approach for the forecast,
with isolated morning showers and thunderstorms becoming isolated
to scattered in the afternoon. High temperatures will range from
below seasonal northwest of I-65 due to mid/upper level cloud
cover from convection upstream combined with rain cooling.
Temperatures around to a bit above along and southeast of I-65
with less rain and a bit more daytime heating, along with a closer
proximity to the upper ridge. Low temperatures around seasonal
are expected, ranging from the upper 60s inland to low 70s near
the I-10 corridor. Mid to upper 70s expected along the coast. /16

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Guidance is advertising the
shortwave trough moving east on the northern edge of the Gulf upper
high, eventually becoming absorbed into an upper trough digging
south along the Eastern seaboard. The upper ridge over the Gulf
shifts west to over the Plains and builds in response. A surface
ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast shifts south with
shifting upper ridge, bringing the Southeast under northwesterly
upper flow. The shifting surface ridge bringing more westerly low
level flow, but with an inland moisture influx west of the forecast
area, moisture levels remain high. Better rain chances remain
inland, closer to the passing shortwave energy, then developing
upper trough. Temperature around to a bit above seasonal expected
through the period. A return of Heat Indices around to a bit above
100 degrees return to the forecast area.
/16

&&

.MARINE...Locally higher winds and waves possible near isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, no impacts are
expected. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
233 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

ALZ057-058-242015-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
233 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND NORTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

At 233 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Greenville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville and Highland Home.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3164 8663 3178 8676 3196 8652 3196 8641
      3203 8641 3204 8640 3204 8641 3205 8640
      3205 8630 3197 8630 3197 8620 3196 8619
      3193 8618 3189 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 232DEG 35KT 3176 8663

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
403 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

ALZ059-060-FLZ203-205-242145-
Escambia AL-Covington AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
403 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EASTERN
ESCAMBIA...SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON...NORTHERN OKALOOSA AND
NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 403 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 17 miles east of
Riverview, or 18 miles east of Brewton, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia and Laurel Hill.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central Alabama...and northwestern Florida.

LAT...LON 3079 8700 3123 8684 3125 8677 3120 8677
      3118 8672 3119 8672 3119 8670 3126 8670
      3133 8642 3096 8641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 262DEG 26KT 3109 8676

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