Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
134 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Upper level shortwave energy will
move through an upper trough stretching south over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley through the Near Term. The first batch
moves across the Southeast this afternoon into tonight, with the
next round expected later tonight through Thursday. A low level
ridge is stretching west over the northern Gulf, creating deep southerly
low level flow and keeping moisture levels high. Precipitable h20
values reported from the KLIX and KJAN upper air sites ranged from
1.8" to 2.1", well above normal for the date. An upper ridge
stretching west over the Gulf of Mexico helps to direct the energy
exiting the Lower Mississippi River upper trough in an east-
northeast direction, and for the fore the forecast area, bringing a
better chance of rain to inland areas of the forecast area through
the Near Term.

Strong to severe storms remain possible over the forecast area this
afternoon into tonight. A combination of MLCapes approaching
2500J/kg, the soupy airmass over the forecast area and nearby, along
with a bit of help from a weak 850mb speed max on the southeast side
of an embedded low level trough moving across the Southeast will
help to create favorable conditions for convective downbursts.
Guidance is advertising DCape values approaching 1000J/kg on the
leading edge of the rain, enhancing any damaging downburst winds
that may occur. Weak tornadoes may also be possible, especially if a
storms follows a previous outflow boundary, but with 0-1km helicity
values advertised of 100m^2/s^2, strong/long track tornadoes are not
indicated. Will need to monitor, with this morning's weather not
quite following what the guidance is saying. With the linear nature
of winds in the model soundings, with bulk shear values of 30-35kts,
linear/bowing segments in the convection bringing strong downburst
winds is expected mode of damage. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will
be issued shortly for our Al/Fl counties except for Choctaw in
effect until 9 PM CDT/02Z.

Looking at temperatures, with better chance of convection across
portions of the forecast area along and north of I-65, better
heating south will bring temperatures closer to seasonal norms, with
below normal high temperatures. Rain cooling overnight will bring
below seasonal low temperatures north of I-65, around to a bit above
southeast.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast
area at 17z, with local mid to low end MVFR conditions noted in areas
of ran and thunderstorms along and west of the Alabama and
Mississippi state line. As the area of rain and thunderstorm move
east over the area this afternoon, local drops to MVFR levels along
with locally strong and variable winds near the thunderstorms are
expected, with impacts to operations expected. There is expected to
be a lull later this evening into the overnight hours, but another
round of convection is expected to begin affecting the forecast area
by sunrise Thursday. Again, local drops to mid to low end MVFR
levels are expected in and near scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Southerly winds are expected through the forecast,
generally ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Locally higher near the
thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NW LUCEDALE           30.93N 88.60W
06/24/2020                   GEORGE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1141 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NW LUCEDALE           30.93N 88.60W
06/24/2020                   GEORGE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1144 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NW LUCEDALE           30.93N 88.60W
06/24/2020                   GEORGE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD REPORTED BY WEATHER
            SPOTTER.

&&

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

ALZ052-053-055-241815-
Clarke AL-Monroe AL-Washington AL-
1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTIES
UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1233 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest
of Wagarville, or 9 miles southeast of Chatom, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Chatom, Saint Stephens, Wagarville, Leroy, Tibbie and
McIntosh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8825 3142 8836 3177 8784 3136 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 240DEG 46KT 3138 8812

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
134 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

ALZ055-056-241915-
Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-
134 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
MONROE AND CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 133 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Peterman, or
5 miles east of Monroeville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Peterman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3142 8725 3154 8732 3174 8719 3157 8703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 231DEG 41KT 3154 8723

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
233 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

ALZ057-058-242015-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
233 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND NORTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

At 233 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Greenville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville and Highland Home.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3164 8663 3178 8676 3196 8652 3196 8641
      3203 8641 3204 8640 3204 8641 3205 8640
      3205 8630 3197 8630 3197 8620 3196 8619
      3193 8618 3189 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 232DEG 35KT 3176 8663